Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP is in fifth

now they're in third lol

[Hatman 🍁]

I guess the goal for the NDP will be to get at least a higher share of the vote than 2008? That mark was 7.8%. Third place would be good too.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, the Toires would win Ottawa South with Brian Kilrea, who is an even more accomplished junior coach than Martel.

[Hatman 🍁]

Swings:
Cons: +36.1%
Lib: -1.6%
NDP: -21.1%
BQ: -14.9%
Grn: +1.0%

Cons GAIN from Lib (18.9%)

[Hatman 🍁]

PCs have held on to Cumberland South. Elections NS isn't showing how many polls remain, so don't know if the results are final.

[Hatman 🍁]

Results/swings

PC 59.2% (+7.7)
LIB 31.7% (-8.8 )
NDP 5.1% (-0.7)
GRN  4.1%

Swing: PC HOLD (+8.2%)

Turnout: 53.0% (-9.4%)

[Hatman 🍁]

With one poll remaining (Fort Fitzgerald, with 2 electors, and didn't have any voters in 2015), looks like the NDP almost held their 2015 support in Fort Mac, but are getting absolutely destroyed in Innisfail.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final results:

Fort McMurray-Conklin
UCP 65.89% (-0.29)
NDP 29.53% (-1.25)
AP 2.75%
ALP 1.10% (-1.93)
GRN 0.73%

Turnout: 35.73% (-8.72)

Swing: UCP notional HOLD (+0.48%)

Interestingly, the # of electors in the riding dropped 4k, most likely due to the wildfires in 2016.


Innisfail-Sylvan Lake
UCP 81.76% (+11.08)
NDP 9.23% (-13.90)
AP 7.42% (+1.23)
ALP 0.95%
IND 0.64%

Turnout: 32.53% (-22.96)

Swing: UCP notional HOLD (+12.49%)

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, I'm guessing would-be NDP voters stayed home.

[Hatman 🍁]

I would not be surprised if the Liberals won it; they'll in the very least win the "Old St. Boniface" area, which is still a majority francophone.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, I didn't pay much attention to this by-election, but I still saw this coming

The riding does have a high francophone population and has a bit of a Liberal history. And Trudeaumania still has its coattails for the Liberal brand.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Greens had a good showing (12%) in 2016, so they had a base to work on. But I figured a lot of that came from disaffected New Democrats who couldn't vote for Selinger. I guess they're no fans of Kinew either.

[Hatman 🍁]

Swings:

Lib: +22.6%
NDP: -14.1%
Grn: +4.0%
PC: -12.5%

Liberal GAIN from NDP (swing: 18.3%)

[Hatman 🍁]

The Greens manage to win a poll


http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/st-boniface-byelection-poll-results-map-1.4751381

No surprise the Liberals won Old St. Boniface

[Hatman 🍁]

Not only is Singh running in Burnaby but he says he'll move there and run in the general if he wins.

Risky move, that isn't exactly a super safe seat. You'd think he'd run in a heavily Sikh seat in Brampton or Surrey.

Well, he wants to win NOW. Promising to move will help him with that; dispelling fears to carpetbagging.

[Hatman 🍁]

Regina Northeast by-election called for September 12.

[Hatman 🍁]

Windsor Lake, NL by-election is called for Sept 20. The new PC leader, Ches Crosbie will be contesting.

While the Liberals won it easily in 2015, it has been a bit of a bellwether in the past. It was also the riding of former Premier Kathy Dunderdale.

MHAs:

Pleasantville
Jerome W. Dinn, PC (1975-1989)
Walter Noel, Liberal (1989-1996)

Virginia Waters
Walter Noel, Liberal (1996-2003)
Kathy Dunderdale, PC (2003-2014)
Cathy Bennett, Liberal (2014-2015)

Windsor Lake
Cathy Bennett, Liberal (2015-2018)

[Hatman 🍁]

As usual, the media is privy to much more updated results:

https://twitter.com/DCFraser/status/1040065587668348928

Lookin' good!

[Hatman 🍁]

https://twitter.com/DCFraser/status/1040070455212748800

[Hatman 🍁]

All polls in now. Final results:

NDP: 53.9% (+13.3)
SP: 39.2% (-15.4)
PC: 2.9%
GRN: 1.9% (-0.2)
LIB: 1.3% (-1.3)
WIP: 0.7%
 Turnout: 39.9% (-17.9)

NDP GAIN from Saskatchewan Party (avg. 2 party swing: 14.4%)

[Hatman 🍁]

All polls in now. Final results:

NDP: 53.9% (+13.3)
SP: 39.2% (-15.4)
PC: 2.9%
GRN: 1.9% (-0.2)
LIB: 1.3% (-1.3)
WIP: 0.7%
 Turnout: 39.9% (-17.9)

NDP GAIN from Saskatchewan Party (avg. 2 party swing: 14.4%)

The absentee vote is still out.

How do you know this? Elections Saskatchewan says 100% of polls are in.

[Hatman 🍁]

All polls in now. Final results:

NDP: 53.9% (+13.3)
SP: 39.2% (-15.4)
PC: 2.9%
GRN: 1.9% (-0.2)
LIB: 1.3% (-1.3)
WIP: 0.7%
 Turnout: 39.9% (-17.9)

NDP GAIN from Saskatchewan Party (avg. 2 party swing: 14.4%)

The absentee vote is still out.

How do you know this? Elections Saskatchewan says 100% of polls are in.

A total of 48 ballot boxes are reported during Preliminary Count on September 12, comprised of 44 regular polls, 3 advance polls and 1 homebound poll. 1 additional poll for absentee votes will be added to the Final Count on September 24, for a total of 49 ballot boxes.

http://results.elections.sk.ca/

Ahh, it would help if I read the fine print.

[Hatman 🍁]

Dirty, dirty tricks. Sunny ways indeed.

[Hatman 🍁]

If Singh gets coronated in Burnaby, perhaps they'll put up a good fight in Outremont? I still say there's an outside chance the NDP can hold it (wouldn't bet on it though). Our numbers show the NDP is still in second place on the Island of Montreal.

[Hatman 🍁]

If Singh gets coronated in Burnaby

I hate to be picked about grammar but the noun is a "coronation" and the verb is "to crown"...it should be "if Singh gets crowned in Burnaby"

After seeing the red squiggly line go under the word, I looked it up, so I am well aware. But I thought evoking crowns would be weird in this situation, so I went with the made up word