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  Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)  (Read 27043 times)
136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #275 on: September 12, 2018, 10:10:52 pm »

45 polls (1st of 3 advanced polls)
NDP 2,216
Sask 1,646
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #276 on: September 12, 2018, 10:11:45 pm »

46 polls
NDP 2,272
Sask 1,670
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #277 on: September 12, 2018, 10:20:14 pm »

Waiting for the last poll to report for the night. There is an absentee poll that will be added later.  I presume this is a large advanced poll that is still out.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #278 on: September 12, 2018, 10:57:10 pm »

All polls in now. Final results:

NDP: 53.9% (+13.3)
SP: 39.2% (-15.4)
PC: 2.9%
GRN: 1.9% (-0.2)
LIB: 1.3% (-1.3)
WIP: 0.7%
 Turnout: 39.9% (-17.9)

NDP GAIN from Saskatchewan Party (avg. 2 party swing: 14.4%)
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #279 on: September 13, 2018, 07:56:05 am »

All polls in now. Final results:

NDP: 53.9% (+13.3)
SP: 39.2% (-15.4)
PC: 2.9%
GRN: 1.9% (-0.2)
LIB: 1.3% (-1.3)
WIP: 0.7%
 Turnout: 39.9% (-17.9)

NDP GAIN from Saskatchewan Party (avg. 2 party swing: 14.4%)

The absentee vote is still out.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #280 on: September 13, 2018, 08:29:20 am »

All polls in now. Final results:

NDP: 53.9% (+13.3)
SP: 39.2% (-15.4)
PC: 2.9%
GRN: 1.9% (-0.2)
LIB: 1.3% (-1.3)
WIP: 0.7%
 Turnout: 39.9% (-17.9)

NDP GAIN from Saskatchewan Party (avg. 2 party swing: 14.4%)

The absentee vote is still out.

How do you know this? Elections Saskatchewan says 100% of polls are in.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #281 on: September 13, 2018, 08:31:51 am »

All polls in now. Final results:

NDP: 53.9% (+13.3)
SP: 39.2% (-15.4)
PC: 2.9%
GRN: 1.9% (-0.2)
LIB: 1.3% (-1.3)
WIP: 0.7%
 Turnout: 39.9% (-17.9)

NDP GAIN from Saskatchewan Party (avg. 2 party swing: 14.4%)

The absentee vote is still out.

How do you know this? Elections Saskatchewan says 100% of polls are in.

A total of 48 ballot boxes are reported during Preliminary Count on September 12, comprised of 44 regular polls, 3 advance polls and 1 homebound poll. 1 additional poll for absentee votes will be added to the Final Count on September 24, for a total of 49 ballot boxes.

http://results.elections.sk.ca/
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #282 on: September 13, 2018, 09:50:59 am »

All polls in now. Final results:

NDP: 53.9% (+13.3)
SP: 39.2% (-15.4)
PC: 2.9%
GRN: 1.9% (-0.2)
LIB: 1.3% (-1.3)
WIP: 0.7%
 Turnout: 39.9% (-17.9)

NDP GAIN from Saskatchewan Party (avg. 2 party swing: 14.4%)

The absentee vote is still out.

How do you know this? Elections Saskatchewan says 100% of polls are in.

A total of 48 ballot boxes are reported during Preliminary Count on September 12, comprised of 44 regular polls, 3 advance polls and 1 homebound poll. 1 additional poll for absentee votes will be added to the Final Count on September 24, for a total of 49 ballot boxes.

http://results.elections.sk.ca/

Ahh, it would help if I read the fine print.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #283 on: September 14, 2018, 08:12:26 pm »

Burnaby South: Grits are thinking about not running a candidate to keep Singh alive for the general.
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« Reply #284 on: September 14, 2018, 09:54:24 pm »

Burnaby South: Grits are thinking about not running a candidate to keep Singh alive for the general.

Interesting, but be careful for what you wish for.  I think Singh could also do better than expected too.  I actually think if he underperforms it will be less because of him and more fear of a Conservative win and many progressive voters voting strategically to stop the Tories. 
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #285 on: September 14, 2018, 10:59:15 pm »

Dirty, dirty tricks. Sunny ways indeed.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #286 on: September 15, 2018, 06:21:05 am »

That's interesting. When's the last time the Grits or Tories gave an NDP leader a pass?
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DL
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« Reply #287 on: September 15, 2018, 07:38:29 am »

Burnaby South: Grits are thinking about not running a candidate to keep Singh alive for the general.

I find this a ludicrous theory.

First of all, given that itís just one year to the next election Singh will be the NDP leader regardless of what happens in Burnaby South.

Secondly, in the very unlikely event that the Liberals were to decide not to run a candidate, it would be because they did some polling in the riding a realized they had zero chance and so they would figure that rather than let Singh boast about a big win in the byelection, why not bow out and devalue his win.

Thirdly, if Singh dropped dead tomorrow and the NDP suddenly had to replace him, who would that replacement be that supposedly strikes fear in the hearts of Liberals. Charlie Angus who speaks virtually no French and was a total flop when he ran for leader? Niki Ashton the strident, humorless Socialist Caucus darling? Seriously, if there was someone else who wanted to be leader who had that much potential to cut I to the Liberal vote...that person would be leader right now.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #288 on: September 15, 2018, 01:58:03 pm »

Burnaby South: Grits are thinking about not running a candidate to keep Singh alive for the general.

I find this a ludicrous theory.

First of all, given that itís just one year to the next election Singh will be the NDP leader regardless of what happens in Burnaby South.

Secondly, in the very unlikely event that the Liberals were to decide not to run a candidate, it would be because they did some polling in the riding a realized they had zero chance and so they would figure that rather than let Singh boast about a big win in the byelection, why not bow out and devalue his win.

Thirdly, if Singh dropped dead tomorrow and the NDP suddenly had to replace him, who would that replacement be that supposedly strikes fear in the hearts of Liberals. Charlie Angus who speaks virtually no French and was a total flop when he ran for leader? Niki Ashton the strident, humorless Socialist Caucus darling? Seriously, if there was someone else who wanted to be leader who had that much potential to cut I to the Liberal vote...that person would be leader right now.

Nathan Cullen.
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Poirot
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« Reply #289 on: September 15, 2018, 04:28:37 pm »

Burnaby South: Grits are thinking about not running a candidate to keep Singh alive for the general.

I find this a ludicrous theory.

First of all, given that itís just one year to the next election Singh will be the NDP leader regardless of what happens in Burnaby South.

Secondly, in the very unlikely event that the Liberals were to decide not to run a candidate, it would be because they did some polling in the riding a realized they had zero chance and so they would figure that rather than let Singh boast about a big win in the byelection, why not bow out and devalue his win.

I agree more with DL's explanation. Maybe Liberlas don't think they would win in Burnaby. Not contesting it downplays NDP's win, they can spin they are courteous to a leader's party, and if Singh makes pipeline a big issue the Liberals avoid a loss on this issue or don't have to engage in a fight on the issue in that riding.

Also if Burnaby is held at the same time as Outremont, the Liberals can spin they win an NDP held riding whilethe the NDP leader winning a seat is not a big win if not much contested. 
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DL
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« Reply #290 on: September 15, 2018, 04:59:32 pm »

If Nathan Cullen wanted to be NDP leader he could have run last year and it likely would have been a coronation but he didnít want the job and there is no reason to believe he  wants the job anymore now than he did then
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Lotuslander
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« Reply #291 on: September 15, 2018, 06:06:29 pm »

This tidbit from article:

"The Liberal party wants him to win so badly, the Prime Minister may well give Singh a free pass by not putting up a Liberal competitor."

Sounds more like Martin trying to make a point than anything else. BTW, LPC has already officially announced they will run candidate in Burnaby South to quell any such rumours.

Some recent data points:

Week-old federal poll of City of Vancouver proper residents with large n=862 sample size. Federal voting intentions:

LPC: 38.8%
CPC: 26.5%
NDP: 21%
Green: 9.4%
Other 4.4%

If (big if) those numbers held up on e-day, NDP would have tough time hanging onto Vancouver-Kingsway IMHO. Burnaby South is adjacent to fed ridings of Vancouver South & Vancouver-Kingsway in City of Vancouver proper.

This week's Nanos "Preferred PM" numbers for BC:

Trudeau: 44.26%
Scheer: 19.36%
Unsure: 18.09%
May: 11.83%
Singh: 5.97%

Any media coverage Singh receives in BC is mostly negative - for those even paying any attention.

As for KM twinning? Just fringe 15% of BCers "strongly" oppose same. Even NDP-dominated Burnaby City council relatively recently brought in RCMP & bulldozers evicting anti-KM protester camp. Speaks volumes.

As for Burnaby South demographics? Roughly more than 50% are foreign-born & mostly from China, Hong Kong & Taiwan.

One just needs to read proverbial tea leaves for Burnaby South.
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DL
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« Reply #292 on: September 15, 2018, 06:12:13 pm »

This the same Lotuslander who said:

1. There was absolutely no chance whatsoever that the BC NDP would win the byelection in Coquitlam-Burke Mount. They won
2. The NDP would get no more than 6 seats in BC in the 2015 federal election. They got 14
3. That there was absolutely no chance at all of the BC NDP winning in 2017 and that in fact they would likely get only 20-odd seats. They got 42 seats and are now the government
4. That there was no chance whatsoever that the BC NDP could form a minority government after the 2015 election and that even if they did it would collapse within a month...over a year later they are still in power and by all accounts quite popular and effective.

Lotuslander does serve a useful purpose when it comes to figuring out NDP fortunes in BC. Just read what he says will happen and then you can rest assured that the exact opposite will actually happen.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #293 on: September 15, 2018, 07:30:10 pm »

If Singh gets coronated in Burnaby, perhaps they'll put up a good fight in Outremont? I still say there's an outside chance the NDP can hold it (wouldn't bet on it though). Our numbers show the NDP is still in second place on the Island of Montreal.
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DL
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« Reply #294 on: September 15, 2018, 09:02:45 pm »

If Singh gets coronated in Burnaby

I hate to be picked about grammar but the noun is a "coronation" and the verb is "to crown"...it should be "if Singh gets crowned in Burnaby"
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Lotuslander
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« Reply #295 on: September 16, 2018, 01:07:36 am »
« Edited: September 16, 2018, 02:15:04 am by Lotuslander »

Sigh. When Jagmeet was recently in Regina, SK at NDP meeting, former SK NDP MP Lorne Nystrom also was in attendance. His take in the TorStar?

"I went to one of Singh's meetings in Regina and was totally underwhelmed", Nystrom said. "Someone asked him about the economy and he ended up talking about love and courage."

#Awesomeness

Wait a minute... BREAKING NEWS: Media/pollster pundits are now claiming that not only will Jagmeet eclipse "Trudeau-mania" from 1968 but will also eclipse "Beatle-mania from mid-1960's. In riding of Burnaby-South of all places. Who woulda thunk?

#Awesomeness

PS. DL - your previous ignorant/deceptive post? In German we literally call same "Katzenjammer" (cat's wail). Cheesy

[Definition: Sometimes used to indicate a general state of depression or bewilderment. It has also been used as a term for a hangover, with the sufferer's groans of discomfort being likened to a wailing cat.]
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DL
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« Reply #296 on: September 16, 2018, 06:59:17 am »

Maybe Singh will do well in his first outing as NDP leader or maybe heíll do badly. Maybe he will win the byelection in Burnaby South or maybe heíll lose. We shall see. All I know is that Lotuslander has an almost perfect record of being dead wrong in his predictions. Maybe he will be right this time. Anything is possible and a broken clock can tell the right time twice a day
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #297 on: September 16, 2018, 08:20:37 am »

If Singh gets coronated in Burnaby

I hate to be picked about grammar but the noun is a "coronation" and the verb is "to crown"...it should be "if Singh gets crowned in Burnaby"

After seeing the red squiggly line go under the word, I looked it up, so I am well aware. But I thought evoking crowns would be weird in this situation, so I went with the made up word Smiley
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DL
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« Reply #298 on: September 16, 2018, 08:33:11 am »

Well then maybe ďanointedĒ is a better word. Coronation refers to a monarch receiving the crown
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #299 on: September 20, 2018, 05:40:36 pm »

Polls closed in Windsor Lake (1/38 polls):

Liberal - 86
PC - 72
NDP - 13
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