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  Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)  (Read 30605 times)
Poirot
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« Reply #350 on: December 03, 2018, 10:18:53 pm »

so far 59% Conservative, 34% Liberal, NDP and Green around 3%. That makes Turmel only 3% from third place.

Not sure, I don't really get what that means. Which party is Turkel?

John Turmel is running as Independent. He's been a candidate in nearly 100 hundred elections. He ussually doesn't get many votes. He's lucky not all by-elections took place at the same time. I imagine he will run in one from the next group of by-elections.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Turmel
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President Phil Scott
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« Reply #351 on: December 03, 2018, 10:55:46 pm »

so far 59% Conservative, 34% Liberal, NDP and Green around 3%. That makes Turmel only 3% from third place.

Not sure, I don't really get what that means. Which party is Turkel?

John Turmel is running as Independent. He's been a candidate in nearly 100 hundred elections. He ussually doesn't get many votes. He's lucky not all by-elections took place at the same time. I imagine he will run in one from the next group of by-elections.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Turmel

Watch out when he makes the ballot in every district next year!
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trebor204
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« Reply #352 on: December 03, 2018, 11:06:27 pm »

Turmel just got 100 votes!
The gap between the NDP and Green is now at 28
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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #353 on: December 03, 2018, 11:09:23 pm »

Turmel just got 100 votes!
The gap between the NDP and Green is now at 28

775-796 now.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #354 on: December 04, 2018, 12:28:58 am »

Looking at the results I would say the following.

The Tories won quite handidly, but this is a fairly safe Conservative riding so that is to be expected.  I would say they had a good showing as up almost 10%, but still got slightly less than they got in 2011 or what they go provincially this past June.

Liberals also had a good night as despite losing badly, they managed to get 35% which in the past quarter of a century, every time they've gotten over 1/3 of the popular vote in this riding they've won a majority while under 30% usually means opposition and under 20% means third place.  So even if they didn't come close to winning and were a bit below their high in 2015, it was still relatively good compared to what they usually get here so the polls showing them in the mid 40s in Ontario make a lot of sense, although the Tory showing suggests they are probably doing a bit better than the low 30s polls suggests.

This has never been an NDP friendly riding, but still 3% is an absolute disaster.  It seems the progressive vote is largely uniting behind the Liberals and NDP is getting squeezed out.  Off course they've had either bad showings like this such as Vaughan in 2010 where they got only 1% yet 6 months later went on to their best showing nationally.  I think Outremont and Burnaby South will be better indicators of where they are.
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« Reply #355 on: December 04, 2018, 12:30:08 am »

I am disappointed in the lack of Turmelmentum.
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« Reply #356 on: December 04, 2018, 05:07:14 am »

Looking at the results I would say the following.

The Tories won quite handidly, but this is a fairly safe Conservative riding so that is to be expected.  I would say they had a good showing as up almost 10%, but still got slightly less than they got in 2011 or what they go provincially this past June.

Liberals also had a good night as despite losing badly, they managed to get 35% which in the past quarter of a century, every time they've gotten over 1/3 of the popular vote in this riding they've won a majority while under 30% usually means opposition and under 20% means third place.  So even if they didn't come close to winning and were a bit below their high in 2015, it was still relatively good compared to what they usually get here so the polls showing them in the mid 40s in Ontario make a lot of sense, although the Tory showing suggests they are probably doing a bit better than the low 30s polls suggests.

This has never been an NDP friendly riding, but still 3% is an absolute disaster.  It seems the progressive vote is largely uniting behind the Liberals and NDP is getting squeezed out.  Off course they've had either bad showings like this such as Vaughan in 2010 where they got only 1% yet 6 months later went on to their best showing nationally.  I think Outremont and Burnaby South will be better indicators of where they are.

The NDP candidate in the riding was the same as in the recent provincial election (Michelle Taylor.)  In the provincial election she received 19.8% of the vote.

The provincial results were:
P.C: 61.3%
NDP: 19.8
Liberal 13.4
Green: 4.8
Libertarian: 0.8
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mileslunn
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« Reply #357 on: December 04, 2018, 12:44:30 pm »

Looking at the results I would say the following.

The Tories won quite handidly, but this is a fairly safe Conservative riding so that is to be expected.  I would say they had a good showing as up almost 10%, but still got slightly less than they got in 2011 or what they go provincially this past June.

Liberals also had a good night as despite losing badly, they managed to get 35% which in the past quarter of a century, every time they've gotten over 1/3 of the popular vote in this riding they've won a majority while under 30% usually means opposition and under 20% means third place.  So even if they didn't come close to winning and were a bit below their high in 2015, it was still relatively good compared to what they usually get here so the polls showing them in the mid 40s in Ontario make a lot of sense, although the Tory showing suggests they are probably doing a bit better than the low 30s polls suggests.

This has never been an NDP friendly riding, but still 3% is an absolute disaster.  It seems the progressive vote is largely uniting behind the Liberals and NDP is getting squeezed out.  Off course they've had either bad showings like this such as Vaughan in 2010 where they got only 1% yet 6 months later went on to their best showing nationally.  I think Outremont and Burnaby South will be better indicators of where they are.

The NDP candidate in the riding was the same as in the recent provincial election (Michelle Taylor.)  In the provincial election she received 19.8% of the vote.

The provincial results were:
P.C: 61.3%
NDP: 19.8
Liberal 13.4
Green: 4.8
Libertarian: 0.8

Comparing to the provincial results, Tories a bit below but not too far off.  NDP significantly lower, Greens slightly lower, while Liberals a lot higher mind you Trudeau has decent approval numbers in Ontario while Wynne was extremely unpopular.  Still this is a fairly safe Tory riding, the last time another party has won here against a united right was 1988 federally although in 1993 the Liberals would have held this even if you combined the PCs + Reform Party, but in 1997 and 2000 they won on a split right.  Provincially I am not sure this has gone anything but Tory as even during the Grossman disaster in 1987, they held this.
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Poirot
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« Reply #358 on: December 08, 2018, 10:22:25 pm »

Quebec by-election on December 10 in Roberval to replace former Premier Couillard.

I imagine it's an easy win for the CAQ, close to the general election they won, no real reason to vote to be in opposition, no incumbent Premier running this time, no permanent leader for PLQ or PQ.

CAQ's canddiate is Nancy Guillemette. She is a former councillor in Roberval and head a mental health organization. PLQ is running William Laroche, a 27 year old councillor in Chambord and president of a cowboy festival. 

Four candidates from the general election are running again. For the PQ the same 21 year old is running again, QS has the same chef as candidate and the Quebec Conservative and a marginal party also have the same canadiate. The Greens didn't have a candidate in the general election but this time the party leader Alex Tyrrell is running. He often runs in by-elections. It's about the tenth times he is a candidate and he is young, he could be a threat to John Turmel's record!   
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mileslunn
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« Reply #359 on: December 09, 2018, 01:15:57 am »

I would say CAQ are the favourites as they were competitive in surrounding ridings and still in their honeymoon phase. PLQ did horrible in all surrounding ridings and won only because it was the riding of the premier. Too rural and not enough younger voters for QS but wouldn't be surprised if their vote share increases. Traditionally a PQ stronghold but with how weak a state the PQ is in don't see them winning this.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #360 on: December 10, 2018, 09:08:36 pm »

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Poirot
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« Reply #361 on: December 10, 2018, 09:11:28 pm »

Roberval for the Quebec Assembly

With half the polling stations reporting:
CAQ 52% PQ 19% PLQ 15% QS 11%
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mileslunn
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« Reply #362 on: December 10, 2018, 09:39:01 pm »

Not a huge surprise.  Considering this riding is over 95% Francophone it was more of a Philippe Couillard than PLQ riding.  Too rural to go QS, while PQ could be competitive if they were doing better in the polls, but in many ways they appear to be dying a slow death thus not a factor, so makes a lot of sense to see this flip to the CAQ.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #363 on: December 10, 2018, 10:29:27 pm »

Final results are:

CAQ 54.53%
PQ 17.51%
PLQ 15.21%
QS 10.32%
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MaxQue
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« Reply #364 on: December 11, 2018, 03:07:45 pm »

There is also a by-election in Quebec City on December 9th, to replace Jonatan Julien (the new CAQ MNA for Charlesbourg) in the Neufchâtel-Lebourgneuf ward. He was elected for Équipe Labeaume in 2013 and 2017, became deputy mayor, but had a fallout with Labeame over the new police central and left the party.

Équipe Labeaume selected Dominique Turgeon, owner of a bakery/pastry restaurant.

Québec 21 (a right-wing party, main opposition on the council) selected Patrick Paquet, the former councillor for the ward. He was elected in 2005 for the Renouveau Municipal (Municipal Renewal, center-left), left it in 2008 for Équipe Labeaume (to "regain his freedom of speech"), was relected in 2009, left in 2012 (to "regain his freedom of speech", again) and joined Québec Autrement (left-wing), who merged into Démocratie Québec and he lost his seat in 2013. What a dizzying round of parties.

Québec 21 won with 2264 votes (49.3%) against 2139 votes for the Labeaume candidate (46.5%) with 193 votes (4.2%) for a left-wing candidate.

Montreal by-elections next weekend.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #365 on: December 12, 2018, 09:06:43 pm »

Final results are:

CAQ 54.53%
PQ 17.51%
PLQ 15.21%
QS 10.32%

Have there been any province-wide polls since the GE? CAQ victory is not a surprise, but third place and just 15% is shockingly bad for the PLQ.
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adma
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« Reply #366 on: December 13, 2018, 08:18:20 am »

Have there been any province-wide polls since the GE? CAQ victory is not a surprise, but third place and just 15% is shockingly bad for the PLQ.

Though it's probably not terribly unlike what would have happened in Couillard's absence.  And whatever the provincewide polls, the Anglo core's solid.  (Interesting, though, if we have a province-wide 2nd place for QS situation brewing)
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #367 on: December 13, 2018, 10:47:06 am »

Have there been any province-wide polls since the GE? CAQ victory is not a surprise, but third place and just 15% is shockingly bad for the PLQ.

Though it's probably not terribly unlike what would have happened in Couillard's absence.  And whatever the provincewide polls, the Anglo core's solid.  (Interesting, though, if we have a province-wide 2nd place for QS situation brewing)

Mainstreet did one last month. Nothing to write home about; CAQ and QS up 2%, PQ and PLQ down by the same.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #368 on: December 13, 2018, 12:13:29 pm »

Have there been any province-wide polls since the GE? CAQ victory is not a surprise, but third place and just 15% is shockingly bad for the PLQ.

Though it's probably not terribly unlike what would have happened in Couillard's absence.  And whatever the provincewide polls, the Anglo core's solid.  (Interesting, though, if we have a province-wide 2nd place for QS situation brewing)

PLQ has never done worse than 25% in that riding before (previous nadir was in 1998), so it's definitely a worse result for them than a typical losing-the-GE result. The Anglo core being solid doesn't help the PLQ if they're getting barely out of single digits with Francophones.
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adma
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« Reply #369 on: December 13, 2018, 06:40:21 pm »

PLQ has never done worse than 25% in that riding before (previous nadir was in 1998), so it's definitely a worse result for them than a typical losing-the-GE result. The Anglo core being solid doesn't help the PLQ if they're getting barely out of single digits with Francophones.

But that was already the universal trend in the recent general election: the PLQ achieving by far their worst results ever in the vast bulk of Francophone ridings.  It's just that the byelection "liberated" Roberval to catch up with the trend--following so soon after the GE, it's more like an Couillard-free appendix to the same...
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« Reply #370 on: December 17, 2018, 12:58:39 pm »

Cross-posted from the municipal thread:

The Montreal by-elections will be held on December 16th. To replace:

Chantal Rouleau, mayor of the Rivière-des-Prairies--Pointe-aux-Trembles borough (Ensemble Montréal, formely Équipe Denis Coderre, formely Vision Montréal), new CAQ MNA for Pointe-aux-Trembles.

Frantz Benjamin, city councillor for St-Michel ward (Ensemble Montréal, formely Équipe Denis Coderre, formely Independant, formely Union Montréal), now Liberal MNA for Viau.

Two new things to report there:
Projet Montréal selected their candidate for Rivière-des-Prairies--Pointe-aux-Trembles borough mayor. Caroline Bourgeois, former chief of staff of Chantal Rouleau and communication director of the Montreal School Board. She is also a former city councillor for Pointe-aux-Prairies ward for Vision Montréal from 2009 to 2013 (defeated in 2013 for Coalition Montréal, the successor to Vision).

Their candidate in St-Michel is Nadine Raymond, vice-president of Conseil du Statut de la Femme (the advisory Quebec government board on gender equality) and a high-level manager at the Quebec YMCAs.

No news from Ensemble, except than their candidate in Rivière-des-Prairies--Pointe-aux-Trembles won't be Giovanni Rapana, the city councillor for Rivière-des-Prairies who left the party (the party claims it was because he wasn't selected).

Projet gained the mayorship of Rivière-des-Prairies--Pointe-aux-Trembles.

Caroline Bourgeois (Projet Montréal) 5314 votes (48.63%; +6.00)
Manuel Guedes (Ensemble Montréal) 4951 votes (45.31%; -12.06)
Marius Minier (Independent) 662 votes (6.06%)

Manuel Guedes was a borough councillor for Pointe-aux-Prairies for Équipe Denis Coderre from 2013 to 2017, when he lost his seat by 30 votes.

Marius Minier was elected as one of the councillors in 3-seater Mercier in 1974 for Citizens' Movement (left-wing opposition to the autocratic rule of right-winger Jean Drapeau) and lost in 1978 (when the council became all single-member seats) in Longue-Pointe. He came back in 1998 as a Vision councillor for Pointe-aux-Trembles. and held office until 2005 when he tried to become borough mayor and lost as a candidate of right-wing "Team Ville-Marie".

In Saint-Michel, Ensemble kept the seat.

Josué Corvil (Ensemble Montréal) 943 votes (40.45%; -21.50)
Nadine Raymond (Projet Montréal) 772 votes (33.12%; -4.93)
Réginald Pierre (Independent) 616 votes (26.43%)

Josué Corvil is a municipal librairian. Réginald Pierre was an employee of the former local MNA, David Heurtel.
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« Reply #371 on: December 29, 2018, 08:04:53 pm »

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brucejoel99
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« Reply #372 on: December 30, 2018, 01:46:42 pm »



Looks like Singh will have some serious competition in the by-election, then (so much for Trudeau potentially extending a "leader's courtesy" to Singh lol). She was the BC Liberal candidate in Burnaby-Deer Lake in the 2017 provincial election, losing to then-City Councillor Anne Kang of the BCNDP by a 48-36 margin. She's also a daycare operator & defeated a scientist for the nomination in a meeting where 123 people voted. I'm not sure why they'd pick somebody who ran for the BC Liberals, though, b/c that could serve to totally destroy her progressive credibility, esp. considering who she's going up against in Singh (though I could definitely see how any talk from Singh about childcare could have him walking into a bear trap).

In the end, I think the BCNDP releases a crapton of their staff & organizers to help & the federal party spends ridiculous amounts of money on the campaign to only see Singh win by 200 votes or so, but I also wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if the Liberals end up taking it, either, esp. if the riding feels that he doesn't make the cut b/c he's neither from nor has strong connections in the local community.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #373 on: December 31, 2018, 08:32:04 am »



Looks like Singh will have some serious competition in the by-election, then (so much for Trudeau potentially extending a "leader's courtesy" to Singh lol). She was the BC Liberal candidate in Burnaby-Deer Lake in the 2017 provincial election, losing to then-City Councillor Anne Kang of the BCNDP by a 48-36 margin. She's also a daycare operator & defeated a scientist for the nomination in a meeting where 123 people voted. I'm not sure why they'd pick somebody who ran for the BC Liberals, though, b/c that could serve to totally destroy her progressive credibility, esp. considering who she's going up against in Singh (though I could definitely see how any talk from Singh about childcare could have him walking into a bear trap).

In the end, I think the BCNDP releases a crapton of their staff & organizers to help & the federal party spends ridiculous amounts of money on the campaign to only see Singh win by 200 votes or so, but I also wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if the Liberals end up taking it, either, esp. if the riding feels that he doesn't make the cut b/c he's neither from nor has strong connections in the local community.

The choice of a more Centre-Right or pure Centrist candidate will help, if only marginally so, Mr Singh. She will be at every occasion targeted for her links to the arguably corrupt and very fiscally conservative BCLiberals. This could also be strategic for the LPC as well, they may be trying to attract some moderate conservative voters who would vote BCL provincially and CON federally. What bear trap around child care? The NDP ran and still supports a "a national, federally-funded child care program" I might be missing a BC specific issue?

I do think Singh looks better then he did when he first announced he'd run; he lives here with his family now and has been campaigning ferociously for months. He took the high ground and failed to fall for the dirty LPC trick of baiting Brampton East. The Greens not running a candidate makes Singh the only Left-Progressive option for voters in this traditional Left-Progressive seat.
While Burnaby South was close in 2015, it was not in 2011 (NDP vs CON), but before 2012 this was split between Burnaby-Douglas and Burnaby-New West, but NDP since 2004, and BNW even before that (Svend Robinson's old seat).
The BC government is still relatively popular, and I do not see voters using this by-election to punish the NDP (ala the 90s), the most recent Nov polling has the BCNDP only -2 points, but the BCLiberals -7 and the Greens -3.
As for Federal polling, the terrible late Nov polling that had the NDP around 14%, has rebounded slightly up to around 16-18%.
 
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #374 on: December 31, 2018, 02:21:54 pm »



Looks like Singh will have some serious competition in the by-election, then (so much for Trudeau potentially extending a "leader's courtesy" to Singh lol). She was the BC Liberal candidate in Burnaby-Deer Lake in the 2017 provincial election, losing to then-City Councillor Anne Kang of the BCNDP by a 48-36 margin. She's also a daycare operator & defeated a scientist for the nomination in a meeting where 123 people voted. I'm not sure why they'd pick somebody who ran for the BC Liberals, though, b/c that could serve to totally destroy her progressive credibility, esp. considering who she's going up against in Singh (though I could definitely see how any talk from Singh about childcare could have him walking into a bear trap).

In the end, I think the BCNDP releases a crapton of their staff & organizers to help & the federal party spends ridiculous amounts of money on the campaign to only see Singh win by 200 votes or so, but I also wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if the Liberals end up taking it, either, esp. if the riding feels that he doesn't make the cut b/c he's neither from nor has strong connections in the local community.

The choice of a more Centre-Right or pure Centrist candidate will help, if only marginally so, Mr Singh. She will be at every occasion targeted for her links to the arguably corrupt and very fiscally conservative BCLiberals. This could also be strategic for the LPC as well, they may be trying to attract some moderate conservative voters who would vote BCL provincially and CON federally. What bear trap around child care? The NDP ran and still supports a "a national, federally-funded child care program" I might be missing a BC specific issue?

I do think Singh looks better then he did when he first announced he'd run; he lives here with his family now and has been campaigning ferociously for months. He took the high ground and failed to fall for the dirty LPC trick of baiting Brampton East. The Greens not running a candidate makes Singh the only Left-Progressive option for voters in this traditional Left-Progressive seat.
While Burnaby South was close in 2015, it was not in 2011 (NDP vs CON), but before 2012 this was split between Burnaby-Douglas and Burnaby-New West, but NDP since 2004, and BNW even before that (Svend Robinson's old seat).
The BC government is still relatively popular, and I do not see voters using this by-election to punish the NDP (ala the 90s), the most recent Nov polling has the BCNDP only -2 points, but the BCLiberals -7 and the Greens -3.
As for Federal polling, the terrible late Nov polling that had the NDP around 14%, has rebounded slightly up to around 16-18%.
 

Lol I meant that if Singh starts talking about childcare, he'll find himself debating against somebody who has direct experience w/ daycare centers & is presumably much more well-versed in childcare as a policy area than Singh. It would be electorally fatal optics for Singh if he were to be perceived as talking down to a woman who likely knows far more than he does about the topic.
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