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  Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)  (Read 27045 times)
lilTommy
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« Reply #375 on: January 02, 2019, 08:28:53 am »



Looks like Singh will have some serious competition in the by-election, then (so much for Trudeau potentially extending a "leader's courtesy" to Singh lol). She was the BC Liberal candidate in Burnaby-Deer Lake in the 2017 provincial election, losing to then-City Councillor Anne Kang of the BCNDP by a 48-36 margin. She's also a daycare operator & defeated a scientist for the nomination in a meeting where 123 people voted. I'm not sure why they'd pick somebody who ran for the BC Liberals, though, b/c that could serve to totally destroy her progressive credibility, esp. considering who she's going up against in Singh (though I could definitely see how any talk from Singh about childcare could have him walking into a bear trap).

In the end, I think the BCNDP releases a crapton of their staff & organizers to help & the federal party spends ridiculous amounts of money on the campaign to only see Singh win by 200 votes or so, but I also wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if the Liberals end up taking it, either, esp. if the riding feels that he doesn't make the cut b/c he's neither from nor has strong connections in the local community.

The choice of a more Centre-Right or pure Centrist candidate will help, if only marginally so, Mr Singh. She will be at every occasion targeted for her links to the arguably corrupt and very fiscally conservative BCLiberals. This could also be strategic for the LPC as well, they may be trying to attract some moderate conservative voters who would vote BCL provincially and CON federally. What bear trap around child care? The NDP ran and still supports a "a national, federally-funded child care program" I might be missing a BC specific issue?

I do think Singh looks better then he did when he first announced he'd run; he lives here with his family now and has been campaigning ferociously for months. He took the high ground and failed to fall for the dirty LPC trick of baiting Brampton East. The Greens not running a candidate makes Singh the only Left-Progressive option for voters in this traditional Left-Progressive seat.
While Burnaby South was close in 2015, it was not in 2011 (NDP vs CON), but before 2012 this was split between Burnaby-Douglas and Burnaby-New West, but NDP since 2004, and BNW even before that (Svend Robinson's old seat).
The BC government is still relatively popular, and I do not see voters using this by-election to punish the NDP (ala the 90s), the most recent Nov polling has the BCNDP only -2 points, but the BCLiberals -7 and the Greens -3.
As for Federal polling, the terrible late Nov polling that had the NDP around 14%, has rebounded slightly up to around 16-18%.
 

Lol I meant that if Singh starts talking about childcare, he'll find himself debating against somebody who has direct experience w/ daycare centers & is presumably much more well-versed in childcare as a policy area than Singh. It would be electorally fatal optics for Singh if he were to be perceived as talking down to a woman who likely knows far more than he does about the topic.

AH, I get ya. Agreed... I don't think Childcare will be "the" issue, or really a issue... I don't even think she is talking much about it.
Singh will talk Housing, Pipelines, Opiod crisis/drugs more then anything I think.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #376 on: January 02, 2019, 02:04:29 pm »

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mileslunn
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« Reply #377 on: January 02, 2019, 05:03:13 pm »



My guess based on the riding's history and what's at stake is it stays NDP, although would make politics very interesting if the BC Liberals did win it.  They would mean the speaker would have to be breaking a lot of ties.  Also BC Liberals might try to convince Plecas to rejoin the party if he resigns as speaker as this would allow the government to fall.  Although actually I think the BC Liberals have better odds if they wait until 2021 then going now.  Their past 16 year stint in power is too fresh in too many people's minds and NDP hasn't been in power long enough to really screw up.  Likewise with the past scandal and bad relations between Plecas and the BC Liberals, I think the only way the government falls is if both the BC Liberals win Nanaimo and Plecas resigns (Abbotsford South is a safe BC Liberal riding).
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mileslunn
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« Reply #378 on: January 03, 2019, 03:37:28 pm »

Looks like federally we will have four by-elections before the next election as any vacancy after January 20, 2019 will be left empty.  So for the final ones here are my thoughts.

Burnaby South: Looking to be a close race between NDP and Liberals.  NDP has the advantage of it being the leader and the Greens not running a candidate (although those supporters could also go Liberal too, although won't go Tory) and its one of the few ridings where more oppose than support the pipeline.  Also some Blue Liberals and Red Tories might swing over to the Tories so boosting the Tories although not enough to win, although hurting the Liberals.  For the Liberals, they are ahead in BC while NDP not doing so well, Trudeau is still reasonably popular in BC, especially the Lower Mainland, and Singh has been quite lackluster as leader.  There is a very long chance of a Tory win but would require a perfect three way split and the Tories doing better than expected.  If the Greens had put up the candidate, the Tories would have much better odds although still not favoured, but better chance as all Green votes will come from the Liberals and NDP not the Tories.

Nanaimo-Ladysmith: NDP heavily favoured, but Greens did well on the south part of the Island so if the NDP does lose this, which I don't think they will, Greens would be favoured.  Liberals have never been very strong here so if they win here, they are looking at 30+ seats in BC.  Tories have some support, but need strong splits as well as while they may do better than 2015, they are still a ways away from returning to 2011 levels which they would need to have a realistic shot here.

Outremont: Most likely a Liberal pickup and probably not even close.  Singh's poor performance in Quebec won't help, only silver lining is this is a fairly progressive riding although provincially it went PLQ not QS.  BQ has never been a factor here not even during the height of the sponsorship scandal and Tories will be lucky if they can just get their deposit back.

York-Simcoe: Fairly safe Tory riding so would be a huge shock if they don't win here.  Probably in the top 10 most conservative ridings in Ontario, so if they cannot win here they are in big trouble.  Liberals are very unlikely to win here, but if they can stay above 30% that is good news for them overall.  Usually when they get over 30% here they form government, in the 20s opposition and in teens fall to third.  NDP has never been a factor here.  PPC won't win, but this might be the first clue on how much impact they will have in terms of vote splitting.  Theoretically this is a riding the Liberals could win with strong vote splits on the right like you saw in the 90s, but the PPC is a long ways away from having the support the Reform Party did. 

Going by parties:

Liberals: Outremont is pretty much a shoo-in so one pick up.  Good shot in Burnaby South so two pick ups.  Nanaimo-Ladysmith and York-Simcoe are extremely unlikely to go Liberal, a win in either suggest a super majority, similar to Tories in 1984 and 1958.

Conservatives: York-Simcoe is fairly safe, so hold what they have, but gaining anything will be tough.  Burnaby South and Nanaimo-Ladysmith are possibilities but really long shots although if the Tories were going to get a majority you would expect them to be competitive (not necessarily win, they didn't in 2011) in those two.  Don't stand a chance in Outremont.

NDP: They are trying to hang onto three and holding all three is unlikely.  Outremont they are likely to lose, Burnaby South is in danger but somewhat better odds of holding, while Nanaimo-Ladysmith is the only one I would say they are still heavily favoured in.  York-Simcoe don't stand a chance.

Other Parties: BQ no chance in Outremont.  Greens only possible in Nanaimo-Ladysmith but unlikely.  PPC zero chance in any although slight chance they deny the Tories a win in one, but even that highly unlikely.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #379 on: January 09, 2019, 12:51:09 pm »

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mileslunn
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« Reply #380 on: January 09, 2019, 03:46:23 pm »

My guesses:

Burnaby South: Going to be a tight one, but if I had to guess, I would guess the Liberals, but wouldn't be surprised if the NDP wins this.  Tories should put up a decent showing as they have a solid base here, but not enough to win.  Somewhere between 25-35% for Tories.

Outremont: Should be an easy Liberal pickup, the question is more margin.  If under 10 points, then good news for NDP in Quebec in that they can minimize their losses, if over 20 points sign of a possible shutout in Quebec.

York-Simcoe: Tories will off course win this, but thresholds to watch are, When Liberals get over 30% here they usually win, if in the 20s opposition, and if in teens third place.  For Tories, under 50% usually means loss, in the 50s minority government of some type, while over 60% a Tory majority.  My guess is Tories get in the 50s, but Liberals get in the 30s due to weakness of NDP.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #381 on: January 09, 2019, 05:21:13 pm »

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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #382 on: January 09, 2019, 06:02:09 pm »

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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #383 on: January 11, 2019, 11:43:24 pm »


And the British Columbia right shoots itself in the foot.
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Poirot
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« Reply #384 on: January 12, 2019, 10:19:05 pm »

Pollster Quito Maggi's take on the three federal byelections based on his polling a couple of montha ago. He has Singh in third place. The Chinese population in the riding is 40%. Survey respondents in Mandarin and Cantonese put him in distant third. Singh was leading or in close three way race with English respondents. Conservatives are popular with Chinese voters.

For Outremont his polling suggested a runaway win for the Liberals. Maggi thinks there could be a Liberal surprise in York Simcoe due to popularity of local candidate and if NDP is very low.

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/01/11/turnout-will-be-deciding-factor-in-burnaby-south-byelection-pollster/
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #385 on: January 15, 2019, 04:07:29 pm »

He now says Singh leads bigly but cautions about volatility.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #386 on: January 15, 2019, 04:59:31 pm »

He now says Singh leads bigly but cautions about volatility.

Undecideds were the second largest group (27%); but Singh was still 12% ahead (29%) of the Liberals and Conservatives who were tied (17%)

some interesting demographics, decided/leaning only:
LPC candidate Wang leads among Cantonese by a good margin 34% vs Singh at 25% Shin (CON) 21%. But Singh is tied among Mandarin speakers with Shin, 27%, Wang 23%. What would be the reason for the divide? Please correct me but, Cantonese is mainly of HK correct? so perhaps wealthier?
It's English speakers that Singh dominates, 44% vs 25% for Wang, 20% Shin.
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VPH
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« Reply #387 on: January 15, 2019, 10:13:20 pm »

Looks like leftist former NDP MP Svend Robinson is returning to politics, running for the NDP against incumbent Liberal MP Terry Beech in Burnaby North-Seymour. Robinson is known for being vociferously anti-American and anti-Israel.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/svend-robinson-political-comeback-1.4979022
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Jeppe
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« Reply #388 on: January 15, 2019, 11:02:32 pm »
« Edited: January 15, 2019, 11:06:53 pm by Jeppe »

Karen Wang, the Liberal candidate in Burnaby-South is receiving backlash for some racial comments about Singh on WeChat.

https://www.thestar.com/vancouver/2019/01/15/as-ndp-leader-jagmeet-singh-campaigns-in-burnaby-south-a-liberal-candidate-brings-race-into-the-byelection.html

Despite the interview hiccup, it seems quite possible that Singh runs away with this race in the end. Mainstreet also usually underestimates NDP support quite a bit too, but we'll see.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #389 on: January 16, 2019, 08:14:08 am »

Looks like leftist former NDP MP Svend Robinson is returning to politics, running for the NDP against incumbent Liberal MP Terry Beech in Burnaby North-Seymour. Robinson is known for being vociferously anti-American and anti-Israel.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/svend-robinson-political-comeback-1.4979022

It will be a very tough race for Robinson, he represented the old Burnaby-Douglas from 1979-2004, Burnaby North-Seymour takes in about 60%+ of his old riding (if you know the area, everything north of Lougheed HWY) but the North Shore portion is mostly LPC/CON.

Most New Democrats are very excited about this, Svend is a known left-wing member of the party who has been a leader in fighting for Equality rights, Environmental issues before they were "cool" or even widely held (first openly gay MP in Canada) much like Nikki Ashton in terms of being a Democratic Socialist for the most part. Robinson is not Anti-American, he's anti-capitalist, there is a big distinction. He like most NDP members are not anti-Israel but rather anti-Israeli occupation (not against the state but against some of the states actions and occupations of Palestinian territories) I think it's unfair to slap these labels, when there not totally accurate.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #390 on: January 16, 2019, 08:28:30 am »

Karen Wang, the Liberal candidate in Burnaby-South is receiving backlash for some racial comments about Singh on WeChat.

https://www.thestar.com/vancouver/2019/01/15/as-ndp-leader-jagmeet-singh-campaigns-in-burnaby-south-a-liberal-candidate-brings-race-into-the-byelection.html

Despite the interview hiccup, it seems quite possible that Singh runs away with this race in the end. Mainstreet also usually underestimates NDP support quite a bit too, but we'll see.

That's really disappointing to see, that to me it's a sign of desperation at worst and really bad optics of very targeted campaigning at best. An interesting article on the South Asian - Chinese rivalry though.

I think it's actually amazing that the three main parties are all running POC candidates; Chinese, Sikh and Korean.
I think you will see many of the NDPs Asian/local area "stars" come out here as well, Jenny Kwan MP has been helping Singh campaign, and word is that Kennedy Stewart will likely come into the riding as well.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #391 on: January 16, 2019, 08:30:45 am »
« Edited: January 16, 2019, 08:34:14 am by DC Al Fine »

Looks like leftist former NDP MP Svend Robinson is returning to politics, running for the NDP against incumbent Liberal MP Terry Beech in Burnaby North-Seymour. Robinson is known for being vociferously anti-American and anti-Israel.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/svend-robinson-political-comeback-1.4979022

I thought he was mostly known for stealing that ring?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #392 on: January 16, 2019, 12:52:33 pm »

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lilTommy
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« Reply #393 on: January 16, 2019, 01:11:04 pm »


Liberals have till 2/6/19 to nominate a candidate from what I'm reading, so they have some time to get their act together IF they want to run a new candidate.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #394 on: January 16, 2019, 02:57:48 pm »

A nice break for Singh.
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UWS
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« Reply #395 on: January 16, 2019, 03:08:16 pm »


Liberals have till 2/6/19 to nominate a candidate from what I'm reading, so they have some time to get their act together IF they want to run a new candidate.

Maybe Adam Pankratz who trailed Kennedy Stewart by just less than 2 percentage points in 2015.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burnaby_South#Election_results
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adma
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« Reply #396 on: January 16, 2019, 06:43:10 pm »

I think it's actually amazing that the three main parties are all running POC candidates; Chinese, Sikh and Korean.

It may also be an unspoken reason why the People's candidate is polling so high.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #397 on: January 17, 2019, 03:28:55 pm »

I think it's actually amazing that the three main parties are all running POC candidates; Chinese, Sikh and Korean.

It may also be an unspoken reason why the People's candidate is polling so high.

Except that the People's Party polls most strongly in the Chinese community.
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136or142
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« Reply #398 on: January 18, 2019, 09:03:54 pm »
« Edited: January 18, 2019, 09:16:42 pm by 136or142 »

Looks like leftist former NDP MP Svend Robinson is returning to politics, running for the NDP against incumbent Liberal MP Terry Beech in Burnaby North-Seymour. Robinson is known for being vociferously anti-American and anti-Israel.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/svend-robinson-political-comeback-1.4979022

I thought he was mostly known for stealing that ring?

It will be interesting to see the right wing media reaction to this in B.C once Robinson receives the nomination and then as the election comes closer.

If the right wing media reaction is to get on its high horse about this, it provides an interesting contrast with the treatment it gave Christy Clark:

In 2013, the Christy Clark government was involved in the cynical 'quick wins' scandal.

Following the 2017 election it was revealed:
1.the Christy Clark government kept the 'financial dumpster fire' at ICBC under raps, not only from the public, but even from the minister responsible, Todd Stone, as even he only received a redacted report on ICBC's financial situation.

2.The Christy Clark government turned a blind eye to money laundering at B.C casinos that may have reached up to $1 billion a year.

3.Christy Clark cheated to win the B.C Liberal leadership.

While there may not have been anything illegal for what Christy Clark did or did not do in any of these things, this was her 'punishment':

She joined the board of Shaw Communications which, through Corus, owns Global Television (and the right wing Global News) and the right wing CKNW radio.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

On the matter of Christy Clark and byelections, there has been some mention of Christy Clark possibly being made the nominee of the Federal Liberals in the Burnaby South by-election.  This mention, to the degree that it has been picked up in the national media, shows the poor work of those who picked up this 'story.'  It is based on nothing more than the speculation of a columnist for the Georgia Straight, a free weekly paper, named Charlie Smith.  In addition to Smith himself stating that the names on his list were speculation, Smith is something of a nutty conspiracy theorist, so even his speculation needs to be taken with massive amounts of salt.  The wire services and who ever else reported on this really should have made themselves aware of Charlie Smith beforehand.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #399 on: January 19, 2019, 10:36:31 am »

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