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  Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)  (Read 29918 times)
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #50 on: March 02, 2018, 10:13:58 am »

Results:

Kindersley
Ken Francis (SP): 88.15% (+20.20)
Travis Herbert (NDP): 9.90% (+2.51)
Yvonne Potter-Pihach (Grn): 1.95%
2 party Swing: 8.84% (NDP to SP)
Turnout: 32.42% (-27.32)

Melfort
Todd Goudy (SP): 78.68% (+1.59)
Lorne Schroeder (NDP): 19.47% (+0.04)
Shawn Setyo (Grn): 1.85% (+0.44)
2 party Swing: 0.78% (NDP to SP)
Turnout: 34.22% (-25.01)

Swift Current
Everett Hindley (SP): 73.53% (-8.91)
Stefan Rumpel (NDP): 24.21% (+9.11)
Maria Rose Lewans (Grn): 1.30% (-0.09)
Aidan Roy (Lib): 0.95% (-0.10)
2 party Swing: 9.01% (SP to NDP)
Turnout: 42.12% (-18.43)

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Njall
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« Reply #51 on: March 06, 2018, 12:05:13 pm »

Brian Jean has resigned his Fort McMurray-Conklin seat. The by-election must be called within six months.

I also just realized that I never posted here when UCP MLA Don MacIntyre resigned his Innisfail-Sylvan Lake seat last month. He resigned after being charged with sexual interference involving a girl under 16.

So, two by-elections in UCP-held seats to be called in the near(-ish) future.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #52 on: March 06, 2018, 12:51:37 pm »

Brian Jean has resigned his Fort McMurray-Conklin seat. The by-election must be called within six months.

I also just realized that I never posted here when UCP MLA Don MacIntyre resigned his Innisfail-Sylvan Lake seat last month. He resigned after being charged with sexual interference involving a girl under 16.

So, two by-elections in UCP-held seats to be called in the near(-ish) future.

Any likelihood that these two seats have become competitive for anyone but UCP?
In 2015, the NDP sweep:
Fort McMurray-Conklin = PC - 22% WR - 43% (combined into UCP 65%) NDP - 30%
*Jean was party leader so there "might" have been a bump here? But looking at the results in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo's they are about the exact same, so perhaps not.

Innisfail-Sylvan Lake   = PC - 28% WR - 42% (Combined into UCP - 70%) NDP - 23%
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #53 on: March 06, 2018, 03:39:26 pm »

Any seat the NDP did not win in 2015 is certainly not going to be won by them in any by-election.
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DL
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« Reply #54 on: March 07, 2018, 12:44:16 am »

Any seat the NDP did not win in 2015 is certainly not going to be won by them in any by-election.

The only possible exception to that would be if there was a byelelction in Calgary Mountainview which is currently the sole Liberal seat in Alberta. It is actually demographically the best riding in Calgary for the NDP and is very much the Calgary equivalent of Edmonton Strathcona...had it not been for David Swann’s peronal appeal it would likely have gone NDP by a very wide margin in 2015
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #55 on: March 07, 2018, 09:40:15 am »

Any seat the NDP did not win in 2015 is certainly not going to be won by them in any by-election.

The only possible exception to that would be if there was a byelelction in Calgary Mountainview which is currently the sole Liberal seat in Alberta. It is actually demographically the best riding in Calgary for the NDP and is very much the Calgary equivalent of Edmonton Strathcona...had it not been for David Swann’s peronal appeal it would likely have gone NDP by a very wide margin in 2015

OK sure, and I suppose they would have a shot at Calgary-Elbow too.
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DL
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« Reply #56 on: March 07, 2018, 12:44:24 pm »

Calgary Elbow is a very wealthy riding and is where the Calgary “old money” lives so its much less likely to go NDP than a hipster place like Mountainview
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #57 on: March 07, 2018, 01:27:36 pm »

Calgary Elbow is a very wealthy riding and is where the Calgary “old money” lives so its much less likely to go NDP than a hipster place like Mountainview

I know, I was just trying to think of another riding they could hypothetically win.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #58 on: March 07, 2018, 07:10:26 pm »

Calgary Elbow is a very wealthy riding and is where the Calgary “old money” lives so its much less likely to go NDP than a hipster place like Mountainview

I think though Calgary-Elbow could stay Alberta Party or would be winneable by the Liberals if they were stronger, but NDP is a bridge too far probably.  Ironically this was Ralph Klein's former riding.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #59 on: March 08, 2018, 09:57:55 am »

Calgary Elbow is a very wealthy riding and is where the Calgary “old money” lives so its much less likely to go NDP than a hipster place like Mountainview

I think though Calgary-Elbow could stay Alberta Party or would be winneable by the Liberals if they were stronger, but NDP is a bridge too far probably.  Ironically this was Ralph Klein's former riding.

I'm not suggesting it is likely, I'm just saying it is more likely than any currently UCP-held riding.
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DL
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« Reply #60 on: March 08, 2018, 10:07:36 am »

The only other current UCP seat that i could see the NDP contending in someday would be Calgary-Greenway. It is the most heavily immigrant/visible minority riding in the city and is the core of the federal Calgary-Skyview seat that went Liberal in 2015. had it not been for a very popular PC incumbent running there in 2015 and the NDP running a WASP paper candidate, it almost certainly would have gone NDP in 2015
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #61 on: March 09, 2018, 01:29:19 pm »
« Edited: March 09, 2018, 01:54:45 pm by 🍁 Hatman »

The only other current UCP seat that i could see the NDP contending in someday would be Calgary-Greenway. It is the most heavily immigrant/visible minority riding in the city and is the core of the federal Calgary-Skyview seat that went Liberal in 2015. had it not been for a very popular PC incumbent running there in 2015 and the NDP running a WASP paper candidate, it almost certainly would have gone NDP in 2015

Well maybe, but they did blow their chance in a by-election there in 2016 (finishing 4th!), but part of that was due to a strong Liberal candidacy.

(Also a point of contention: Most of Calgary-Greenway is actually in the Calgary Forest Lawn federal riding, but looks to be an area of the riding that is more Liberal friendly)

ALSO, Calgary-Greenway (which is an abomination of a riding in terms of its shape), is going to be rightfully cut up for the next election.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #62 on: March 09, 2018, 03:06:09 pm »

Jason Kenney is also quite strong amongst the immigrant community so this might be one of the few cases where you get some federal Liberal UCP crossovers.  The immigrant community is fairly conservative, its more the fact there are still many xenophobes in the party why they don't vote for them.
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Njall
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« Reply #63 on: March 12, 2018, 11:46:49 pm »

Brian Jean has resigned his Fort McMurray-Conklin seat. The by-election must be called within six months.

I also just realized that I never posted here when UCP MLA Don MacIntyre resigned his Innisfail-Sylvan Lake seat last month. He resigned after being charged with sexual interference involving a girl under 16.

So, two by-elections in UCP-held seats to be called in the near(-ish) future.

Any likelihood that these two seats have become competitive for anyone but UCP?
In 2015, the NDP sweep:
Fort McMurray-Conklin = PC - 22% WR - 43% (combined into UCP 65%) NDP - 30%
*Jean was party leader so there "might" have been a bump here? But looking at the results in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo's they are about the exact same, so perhaps not.

Innisfail-Sylvan Lake   = PC - 28% WR - 42% (Combined into UCP - 70%) NDP - 23%

Whoops, forgot to reply to this earlier.

I expect the UCP to hold both seats. However, the potential for some interesting developments to occur still exists. By-elections in Fort McMurray have quite low turnout even compared to other by-elections, which could lead to a volatile result compared to a general election. For example, the 2014 federal by-election saw the Liberal candidate come within about 10 points of the Conservative in the overall Fort McMurray--Athabasca riding, and I believe he actually won the city of Fort McMurray. For Innisfail--Sylvan Lake, I'll be more interested in the race for second place. The NDP performance even in 2015 wasn't that great, and the Alberta Party (which has gained a decent amount of traction since the formation of the UCP) has over performed there in the past. Running a former Penhold Town Councillor in 2015, the Alberta Party received 6.2% (compared to 2.3% province-wide), and over 10% in areas like Penhold and Springbrook. I could see them getting a double-digit result this time, and potentially finishing ahead of the UCP.


Calgary Elbow is a very wealthy riding and is where the Calgary “old money” lives so its much less likely to go NDP than a hipster place like Mountainview

I think though Calgary-Elbow could stay Alberta Party or would be winneable by the Liberals if they were stronger, but NDP is a bridge too far probably.  Ironically this was Ralph Klein's former riding.

I'm not suggesting it is likely, I'm just saying it is more likely than any currently UCP-held riding.

I'd actually disagree with this. Calgary-Elbow is certainly an "old money" bastion, and they're not averse to voting for centrist candidates, but going NDP would be hugely out-of-character. Looking at the two-party (approximated by combining the PC and WRP votes) UCP-NDP vote share, Calgary-Elbow is the second-strongest UCP riding in Calgary after Calgary-West. I expect Calgary-Elbow to remain with the Alberta Party next election. I honestly can't think of any UCP-held ridings that the NDP could pick up. The closest thing to that, under the new riding boundaries, would be the urban Grande Prairie seat, which I only say because the NDP would have barely won it if the new boundaries existed in 2015.

To the earlier point, I certainly expect the NDP to be competitive in Calgary-Mountain View in the next election, and likely to pick it up. They would have won it in 2015 under the new boundaries.
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Njall
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« Reply #64 on: March 13, 2018, 02:25:53 pm »

To the earlier point, I certainly expect the NDP to be competitive in Calgary-Mountain View in the next election, and likely to pick it up. They would have won it in 2015 under the new boundaries.

As it happens, this morning, Justice Minister Kathleen Ganley (the current Calgary-Buffalo MLA) announced that she would be seeking re-election in Calgary-Mountain View in 2019. Finance Minister Joe Ceci, currently MLA for Calgary-Fort (Calgary-Peigan under the new boundaries) will run in Calgary-Buffalo in 2019.
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Poirot
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« Reply #65 on: April 03, 2018, 02:44:48 pm »

Singh visited Outremont and the story says he is open to running to replace Mulcair when he leaves. They are studying the pros and cons.   

http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2018/04/03/jagmeet-singh-songe-a-se-presenter-au-quebec

I guess it's normal to try to see if he could win but I imagine the Liberals would campaign even harder to win it back since it benefits them to have the NDP not too strong.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #66 on: April 03, 2018, 02:55:45 pm »

Singh visited Outremont and the story says he is open to running to replace Mulcair when he leaves. They are studying the pros and cons.   

http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2018/04/03/jagmeet-singh-songe-a-se-presenter-au-quebec

I guess it's normal to try to see if he could win but I imagine the Liberals would campaign even harder to win it back since it benefits them to have the NDP not too strong.

Seems like a bad idea to me. Outremont is primed for a Liberal pick up between the fact that it is more a Mulcair seat than an NDP one and the large Liberal gain in the province since 2015.

No need for the leader to take an embarassing loss before the election.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #67 on: April 03, 2018, 03:00:06 pm »

This is as dumb as Elliott floating running in St. Paul's and would end similarly.
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Poirot
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« Reply #68 on: April 03, 2018, 03:26:30 pm »

I don't think it would be a good idea to run there but maybe I'm more influenced by traditional Outremont result. Maybe the NDP are looking at Singh possibility of taking votes in multicultural Outremont or that in a by-election with a lower turnout their base could turnout more than the general population like recent immigrants. 
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Poirot
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« Reply #69 on: April 03, 2018, 03:49:42 pm »

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord needs to be called by June 2nd.
Four persons are running for the Liberal nomination so far. Claude Bouchard of Promotion Saguenay. Michel Ringuette who is a former mayor of Saint-Charles-de-Bourget, young entrepreneur Simon-Pierre Murdock and Lina Boivin business consultant and was appointed to Port Saguenay's board by the liberal government.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1090489/candidat-investiture-parti-liberal-canada-elections-partielle

There was a phone poll being done asking what are the priorities for the riding and what they think of different people including conservative candidate Richard Martel and Lina Boivin.

The riding executive of the Bloc has asked Ouellet to quit. They had found a candidate but won't run if she stays. I think think the consultation on Ouellet's leadership is at the same time as the limit to call the election, they will have to find someone else. The riding executive will not work for a candidate if Ouellet stays.   
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #70 on: April 03, 2018, 05:06:18 pm »

Guys, Outremont was the best NDP riding in Quebec before Mulcair came in, and it was won by Valerie Plante last year. Why are we so sure it will go Liberal? It's exactly the kind of Quebec riding the NDP can do well in with Singh, as opposed to a more xenophobic nationalist seat.

Having said that, I still think it's a bad idea for him to run.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #71 on: April 03, 2018, 05:12:21 pm »

Guys, Outremont was the best NDP riding in Quebec before Mulcair came in, and it was won by Valerie Plante last year. Why are we so sure it will go Liberal? It's exactly the kind of Quebec riding the NDP can do well in with Singh, as opposed to a more xenophobic nationalist seat.

Having said that, I still think it's a bad idea for him to run.

I agree Outremont is one of the more NDP friendly ridings in Quebec and if they cannot win there, they are in trouble.  Sure some like Guy Caron and Ruth Ellen Brousseau might hold their seats due to personal popularity, but Outremont is one of the few the NDP might still be competitive in even with their numbers in Quebec.  That being said probably too big a risk for Singh since if he loses he is done as leader and too close to the election to get a new one without some risks.

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord may not be a Liberal stronghold but expect the Liberals to hold this and Tories come in second, while BQ and NDP fight over third and fourth.  Raw numbers will be interesting though.  For the Liberals anything over 40% is good news while under 30% suggests their troubles have spread to Quebec.  For Tories over 20% is somewhat good news, and high 20s suggest they might have at reasonable shot at gaining elsewhere in the regions of Quebec.  Under 15% suggests outside of the few pockets like the Chaudiere-Appalaches they are irrelevant in Quebec.  For NDP and BQ, over 20% would be a good showing based on where things are now while under 10% would be a disaster for both. 
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MaxQue
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« Reply #72 on: April 03, 2018, 08:15:25 pm »

Depends who is the Liberal candidate. Claude Bouchard can't win, he's way too close to the former corrupt administration of Saguenay City and which was destroyed at the last election (they went from 64% to 6% in the mayoral contest and from 17/19 seats to 1/15).
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mileslunn
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« Reply #73 on: April 03, 2018, 08:22:03 pm »

For Singh if he wants a seat, these are the ridings he should probably go far if he can get them to step aside.  All the others are too risky and there is always the risk of being seen as a carpbetbagger, think John Tory losing Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock in 2009 which is normally a very safe PC riding.

Vancouver East - This is probably THE safest NDP riding in the country but not sure Jenny Kwan would be interested in stepping aside but with an election 18 months away she could run there again in 2019.  Much like how Scott Brison stepped aside for Joe Clark, but then ran again in 2000.

New Westminster-Burnaby - Peter Julian has been there since 2004 and this is also under the current boundaries quite safe as most of the population is New Westminster which always votes NDP and the part of Burnaby it includes is the most NDP friendly part.

Hamilton Centre - Not sure David Christophson would want to step aside after the recent incident but a safe riding nonetheless and also Andrea Howarth's too provincially who is very popular here.

Windsor West - Brian Masse has been there since 2002 and Jagmeet Singh has seen Windsor roots so makes sense to run in one of the two Windsor ridings.  Liberals very unpopular south of London due to provincial counterparts who have imploded there and Tories have a ceiling of 30% in Windsor.  Essex is too risky as the Tories had a strong second so its difficult to know which way the Liberal vote would break due to decline never mind Tory supporters tend to be more motivated to show up which is crucial in by-elections that normally have low turnouts. 

Timmins-James Bay is a bad one as this is a Charlie Angus riding more than anything and there could be some backlash with him stepping aside even though the riding normally goes NDP.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #74 on: April 04, 2018, 05:03:06 am »
« Edited: April 04, 2018, 06:54:54 am by DC Al Fine »

Guys, Outremont was the best NDP riding in Quebec before Mulcair came in, and it was won by Valerie Plante last year. Why are we so sure it will go Liberal? It's exactly the kind of Quebec riding the NDP can do well in with Singh, as opposed to a more xenophobic nationalist seat.

Having said that, I still think it's a bad idea for him to run.

Mulcair only won it by 10% in 2015. The Liberals are up 10% in Quebec, the NDP is down and I'd expect Mulcair to have more pull in the riding than Singh. That's about it.
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