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  Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)  (Read 29955 times)
DL
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« Reply #75 on: April 04, 2018, 10:51:54 am »

I doubt very much if Singh would actually run in a byelection in Outremont, but i don't think it harms him at all to be coy and let it be known that nothing is ruled out...
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« Reply #76 on: April 04, 2018, 03:03:11 pm »

Guys, Outremont was the best NDP riding in Quebec before Mulcair came in, and it was won by Valerie Plante last year. Why are we so sure it will go Liberal? It's exactly the kind of Quebec riding the NDP can do well in with Singh, as opposed to a more xenophobic nationalist seat.

Having said that, I still think it's a bad idea for him to run.

Mulcair only won it by 10% in 2015. The Liberals are up 10% in Quebec, the NDP is down and I'd expect Mulcair to have more pull in the riding than Singh. That's about it.

The Liberals probably have the advantage yes, but it's not a safe Liberal seat anymore.

Unless he is suicidal, Singh won't run unless internal polling suggests he would win anyways, so it's a moot point.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #77 on: April 04, 2018, 03:48:55 pm »

I would also think internal polls would have to show a large lead as by-elections are notorious for poor turnouts too.
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Poirot
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« Reply #78 on: April 07, 2018, 08:19:31 pm »
« Edited: April 07, 2018, 08:36:36 pm by Poirot »

For Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, former MP Dany Morin has decided not to run or for the general in 2019. The NDP's only candidate seems to be Eric Dubois who lost the nomination in 2015 for Lac-Saint-Jean but ran for the party in previous elections. He works for the CSN union.

https://www.lequotidien.com/actualites/jagmeet-singh-ne-serait-pas-candidat-8021406a02ccd467d48ff00618fc82c6
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mileslunn
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« Reply #79 on: April 25, 2018, 12:37:50 pm »

Nicola di Iorio is quitting so will be a by-election sometime later this year in St. Leonard-St. Michel.  A very safe Liberal seat so they should easily hold this. 
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trebor204
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« Reply #80 on: May 02, 2018, 11:34:36 am »

Gord Brown, MP for Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes has passed away.


http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/mp-gord-brown-heart-attack-1.4644739

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mileslunn
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« Reply #81 on: May 02, 2018, 03:11:57 pm »

Gord Brown, MP for Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes has passed away.


http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/mp-gord-brown-heart-attack-1.4644739



Terribly sad news.  Seems like he was also well liked by many on the other side too.  Too young and way too sudden to go.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #82 on: May 03, 2018, 10:48:40 am »

Should be a Tory hold I imagine.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #83 on: May 03, 2018, 10:58:08 am »

Gord Brown's riding is a pretty safe Tory one although the Liberals did come within 7 points in 2015, but normally Tory wins both provincially and federally are by large margins so I suspect it will be a Conservative hold.  If the Conservatives do for some reason lose it, I imagine Andrew Scheer's leadership will come under scrutiny and he could face a caucus rebellion, but again very unlikely to happen.  My guess is the Tories will get over 50% (they got 47% in 2015 which is quite low for them in this riding).
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Njall
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« Reply #84 on: May 05, 2018, 12:39:52 pm »

Alberta by-elections update:

The UCP have nominated their candidates for the Innisfail-Sylvan Lake and Fort McMurray-Conklin by-elections. In Fort McMurray-Conklin, Laila Goodridge will be the candidate, having beat out three other nomination contestants. She was the Wildrose candidate in Grande Prairie-Wapiti in 2015, and was previously a Wildrose and federal Conservative staffer. In Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Devin Dreeshen won the six-candidate nomination contest to become the UCP candidate. Dreeshen is on the Board of the Western Canadian Wheat Growers' Association, and is the son of Red Deer--Mountain View MP Earl Dreeshen.

The NDP have scheduled their nomination contest for Fort McMurray-Conklin for May 10th. The only declared candidate for the NDP nomination is Jane Stroud, Councillor for the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo's Ward 4, making her the Councillor representing the hamlets of Anzac, Conklin, Gregoire Lake Estates, and Janvier (collective population: around 1000). No news yet on their plans for nominating a candidate in Innisfail Sylvan Lake.

The only news from any other party is that the Reform Party of Alberta (minor fiscal and social conservative party) will be running their Leader, Randy Thorsteinson, in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake. Thorsteinson was previously leader of the Social Credit Party between 1993 and 1999, and the Alberta Alliance between 2003 and 2005.

The by-elections will likely be held in the early summer.
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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #85 on: May 05, 2018, 01:43:19 pm »

^^^Both of these will be UCP landslides, right?
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« Reply #86 on: May 05, 2018, 02:39:11 pm »

^^^Both of these will be UCP landslides, right?

yup
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adma
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« Reply #87 on: May 05, 2018, 02:47:35 pm »

Though Thorsteinson might tokenly temper the Innisfail-SL UCP-landslide picture, I reckon.
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Njall
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« Reply #88 on: May 06, 2018, 09:55:38 am »

Though Thorsteinson might tokenly temper the Innisfail-SL UCP-landslide picture, I reckon.

Indeed, especially since hes run here in the past and has a local profile. At the very least, I expect the combined UCP+Other Conservatives (Reform, etc.) to be at least 65% in both ridings.
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« Reply #89 on: May 06, 2018, 01:52:17 pm »

Huh. The new Reform Party's logo is essential the Democrats' logo but with an "R" instead of a D, and the shades of blue are different:



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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #90 on: May 06, 2018, 11:11:02 pm »

Huh. The new Reform Party's logo is essential the Democrats' logo but with an "R" instead of a D, and the shades of blue are different:




Dems used to have a dark blue circle, too.

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Njall
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« Reply #91 on: May 07, 2018, 03:13:23 pm »

Alberta by-elections update:

The UCP have nominated their candidates for the Innisfail-Sylvan Lake and Fort McMurray-Conklin by-elections. In Fort McMurray-Conklin, Laila Goodridge will be the candidate, having beat out three other nomination contestants. She was the Wildrose candidate in Grande Prairie-Wapiti in 2015, and was previously a Wildrose and federal Conservative staffer. In Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Devin Dreeshen won the six-candidate nomination contest to become the UCP candidate. Dreeshen is on the Board of the Western Canadian Wheat Growers' Association, and is the son of Red Deer--Mountain View MP Earl Dreeshen.

The NDP have scheduled their nomination contest for Fort McMurray-Conklin for May 10th. The only declared candidate for the NDP nomination is Jane Stroud, Councillor for the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo's Ward 4, making her the Councillor representing the hamlets of Anzac, Conklin, Gregoire Lake Estates, and Janvier (collective population: around 1000). No news yet on their plans for nominating a candidate in Innisfail Sylvan Lake.

The only news from any other party is that the Reform Party of Alberta (minor fiscal and social conservative party) will be running their Leader, Randy Thorsteinson, in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake. Thorsteinson was previously leader of the Social Credit Party between 1993 and 1999, and the Alberta Alliance between 2003 and 2005.

The by-elections will likely be held in the early summer.

As a further update, the NDP have scheduled a nomination meeting in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake for May 25. The presumptive nominee is Nicole Mooney, the Communications and Political Engagement Officer for the union local of the Alberta Teachers' Association representing teachers of the Red Deer Catholic School Board. It also appears that Randy Thorsteinson has withdrawn his candidacy.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #92 on: May 10, 2018, 07:39:36 am »

Kennedy Stewart, NDP MP for Burnaby South is making an announcement about possibly running for Mayor of Vancouver today. If he resigns his seat, it may open up a more friendly spot for Singh to run in than Outremont.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #93 on: May 10, 2018, 10:26:40 am »

Kennedy Stewart, NDP MP for Burnaby South is making an announcement about possibly running for Mayor of Vancouver today. If he resigns his seat, it may open up a more friendly spot for Singh to run in than Outremont.

Still even Burnaby South is far from a safe one and if Singh loses there he is done as leader.  I could see the Liberals who almost won in 2015 picking it up and while not a Conservative riding a slight uptick for them and a perfect split could allow them to slip up the middle (you would need a perfect split for them to win there).
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lilTommy
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« Reply #94 on: May 10, 2018, 11:18:40 am »

Kennedy Stewart, NDP MP for Burnaby South is making an announcement about possibly running for Mayor of Vancouver today. If he resigns his seat, it may open up a more friendly spot for Singh to run in than Outremont.

Still even Burnaby South is far from a safe one and if Singh loses there he is done as leader.  I could see the Liberals who almost won in 2015 picking it up and while not a Conservative riding a slight uptick for them and a perfect split could allow them to slip up the middle (you would need a perfect split for them to win there).

Even with the NDP polling about at 2015 or lower, they have been polling higher in BC. I don't see the Liberals winning in this climate, their overt pro-pipeline stance is not very popular from what I can see in the Metro area, and particularly Burnaby. The provincial BCNDP seem to be relatively popular, If the NDP nominate a strong candidate or even Singh as a seat filler till 2019 I see the NDP winning the seat.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #95 on: May 10, 2018, 12:23:17 pm »

Kennedy Stewart, NDP MP for Burnaby South is making an announcement about possibly running for Mayor of Vancouver today. If he resigns his seat, it may open up a more friendly spot for Singh to run in than Outremont.

Still even Burnaby South is far from a safe one and if Singh loses there he is done as leader.  I could see the Liberals who almost won in 2015 picking it up and while not a Conservative riding a slight uptick for them and a perfect split could allow them to slip up the middle (you would need a perfect split for them to win there).

Even with the NDP polling about at 2015 or lower, they have been polling higher in BC. I don't see the Liberals winning in this climate, their overt pro-pipeline stance is not very popular from what I can see in the Metro area, and particularly Burnaby. The provincial BCNDP seem to be relatively popular, If the NDP nominate a strong candidate or even Singh as a seat filler till 2019 I see the NDP winning the seat.

Actually polling average shows NDP down slightly in BC at a federal level but with Trudeau moving leftward you have a lot of cross over Liberal federal, NDP provincial votes.  On the pipeline, polls show a clear majority in BC want it, although this is provincewide so its possible in Burnaby most are against it and its further afield that people support it.  Horgan's numbers are so-so but better than most premiers.  The budget was popular, but his stance on pipelines is not and recent polls are mixed bag with Angus-Reid showing NDP ahead by 5, Mainstreet, the BC Liberals by 2 and 6 respectively so with no election on the horizon tough to say who is right and I suspect if an election were held today over 80% possibly 90% of seats would go the same way they did a year ago.

Still my point is Burnaby South is a huge gamble and far from a slam dunk.  New Westminster-Burnaby or Vancouver East, agreed the NDP would easily hold, but neither MP is stepping down.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #96 on: May 10, 2018, 01:47:27 pm »

Stewart is running for mayor and says he'd support Singh if he runs for his seat.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #97 on: May 10, 2018, 06:24:28 pm »

Kennedy Stewart, NDP MP for Burnaby South is making an announcement about possibly running for Mayor of Vancouver today. If he resigns his seat, it may open up a more friendly spot for Singh to run in than Outremont.

Still even Burnaby South is far from a safe one and if Singh loses there he is done as leader.  I could see the Liberals who almost won in 2015 picking it up and while not a Conservative riding a slight uptick for them and a perfect split could allow them to slip up the middle (you would need a perfect split for them to win there).

Even with the NDP polling about at 2015 or lower, they have been polling higher in BC. I don't see the Liberals winning in this climate, their overt pro-pipeline stance is not very popular from what I can see in the Metro area, and particularly Burnaby. The provincial BCNDP seem to be relatively popular, If the NDP nominate a strong candidate or even Singh as a seat filler till 2019 I see the NDP winning the seat.

Actually polling average shows NDP down slightly in BC at a federal level but with Trudeau moving leftward you have a lot of cross over Liberal federal, NDP provincial votes.  On the pipeline, polls show a clear majority in BC want it, although this is provincewide so its possible in Burnaby most are against it and its further afield that people support it.  Horgan's numbers are so-so but better than most premiers.  The budget was popular, but his stance on pipelines is not and recent polls are mixed bag with Angus-Reid showing NDP ahead by 5, Mainstreet, the BC Liberals by 2 and 6 respectively so with no election on the horizon tough to say who is right and I suspect if an election were held today over 80% possibly 90% of seats would go the same way they did a year ago.

Still my point is Burnaby South is a huge gamble and far from a slam dunk.  New Westminster-Burnaby or Vancouver East, agreed the NDP would easily hold, but neither MP is stepping down.

The pools about it with regional samples have the pipeline being the least popular in Metro Vancouver and the most in non-Vancouver mainland.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #98 on: May 12, 2018, 10:24:20 am »

Chicoutimi: Grits chose their candidate, a local businesswoman endorsed by Lemieux. Given how much pork Justin's been dumping there in recent weeks, I assume he calls it within a week.
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adma
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« Reply #99 on: May 12, 2018, 01:49:12 pm »

Still my point is Burnaby South is a huge gamble and far from a slam dunk.  New Westminster-Burnaby or Vancouver East, agreed the NDP would easily hold, but neither MP is stepping down.

How "huge" a gamble is it?  Remember that 2015 was skewed by Justinmania vs Mulcair's dreary leadership; and that provincially, it was still the Christy Clark regime and voters were jaded about the BC NDP after so many failed/thwarted kicks at the can.

Of course, to state the obvious: there's an operating assumption here that suburban Vancouver would be less averse to electing a turbanned Sikh than inner-city Montreal (much less Quebec at large)
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