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  Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)  (Read 30010 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #100 on: May 12, 2018, 01:54:51 pm »

One potential advantage is that it could force the issue - which at present is very much in flux - of his credibility and so future to a conclusion: if he wins, well, he is credible and has a future. If not, much easier to to write off as an Error and to move on.
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Adam T
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« Reply #101 on: May 12, 2018, 01:59:53 pm »

Still my point is Burnaby South is a huge gamble and far from a slam dunk.  New Westminster-Burnaby or Vancouver East, agreed the NDP would easily hold, but neither MP is stepping down.

How "huge" a gamble is it?  Remember that 2015 was skewed by Justinmania vs Mulcair's dreary leadership; and that provincially, it was still the Christy Clark regime and voters were jaded about the BC NDP after so many failed/thwarted kicks at the can.

Of course, to state the obvious: there's an operating assumption here that suburban Vancouver would be less averse to electing a turbanned Sikh than inner-city Montreal (much less Quebec at large)


Was it?  The B.C samples don't show a large change between the NDP and the Liberals since 2015 and Kennedy Stewart was reelected by just 547 votes against a low profile young liberal candidate (although apparently his family had some connections throughout Burnaby.)

Burnaby isn't overwhelmingly NDP.

I'd say this could be a lean NDP riding with Singh running, but the voters might not like a non Burnaby (or British Columbian) running for the seat.  Given the latest polls, this could be a three way race.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #102 on: May 13, 2018, 09:04:58 am »

Chicoutimi called for June 18, easy rouge hold.
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Krago
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« Reply #103 on: May 13, 2018, 10:40:37 am »

I'd say this could be a lean NDP riding with Singh running, but the voters might not like a non Burnaby (or British Columbian) running for the seat.  Given the latest polls, this could be a three way race.

It worked for Tommy Douglas in 1962:

https://lop.parl.ca/About/Parliament/FederalRidingsHistory/hfer.asp?Language=E&Search=Cresdetail&Election=7590
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Krago
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« Reply #104 on: May 13, 2018, 10:42:17 am »
« Edited: May 13, 2018, 10:46:47 am by Krago »


Quick questions:

Will both the Bloc Quebecois and Quebec Debout run candidates?

Who will win more votes?

My guesses are 'Yes' and the BQ.


ETA: the website www.quebecdebout.org reroutes to www.blocquebecois.org   I guess you should really reserve your web address before you announce your party name.
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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #105 on: May 13, 2018, 12:53:25 pm »

But baby strikes me as very fertile NDP ground. I’d imagine they’d elect Singh, especially if the Grits put up a provincial Liberal.
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Lotuslander
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« Reply #106 on: May 13, 2018, 04:52:06 pm »


The pools about it with regional samples have the pipeline being the least popular in Metro Vancouver and the most in non-Vancouver mainland.

Nada. Latest KM pipeline polling (several polls) in BC showing major shift in favour. Majority of BC interior/Metro Vancouver supports same while plurality on Van Isle.

But key figure is *strong opposition*. While it has been at ~20% over years, that figure now falling as well to between 10% - 17%. That 10% to 17% *strong opposition* likely split between NDP/Green voters. Can't win an election on those numbers & that's even if this *strong* opposition are *one issue* voters. Doubt that as well.
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the506
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« Reply #107 on: May 17, 2018, 11:35:44 am »

Jamie Baillie's old seat of Cumberland South called for June 19.
http://thechronicleherald.ca/novascotia/1571294-mcneil-announces-june-19-byelection-for-cumberland-south
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #108 on: May 17, 2018, 11:42:31 am »


The Tory candidate's first name is Tory Smiley
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #109 on: June 03, 2018, 09:59:37 am »

Saint Leonard-Saint Michel: the imam who eulogized the Quebec City massacre victims might run for the Grits.
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« Reply #110 on: June 10, 2018, 07:41:08 pm »

Looks like Nanaimo MLA Leonard Krog may resign to run for mayor of the city. If the NDP loses the ensuing by-election, the government would fall Undecided
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #111 on: June 10, 2018, 07:43:43 pm »

Looks like Nanaimo MLA Leonard Krog may resign to run for mayor of the city. If the NDP loses the ensuing by-election, the government would fall Undecided

Break out the thumbscrews, force him not to run etc.
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Krago
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« Reply #112 on: June 10, 2018, 07:50:36 pm »


Quick questions:

Will both the Bloc Quebecois and Quebec Debout run candidates?

Who will win more votes?

My guesses are 'Yes' and the BQ.


ETA: the website www.quebecdebout.org reroutes to www.blocquebecois.org   I guess you should really reserve your web address before you announce your party name.

The BQ is running Catherine Bouchard-Tremblay, a two-time candidate for the Option nationale.

There is an Independent candidate, but I don't think John Turmel is running for Quebec Debout.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #113 on: June 10, 2018, 08:06:39 pm »

Looks like Nanaimo MLA Leonard Krog may resign to run for mayor of the city. If the NDP loses the ensuing by-election, the government would fall Undecided
Nanaimo is a rather polarizing but left leaning city. The BC Liberals have a high floor (~30%) but a low ceiling which makes winning the seat  difficult. I wouldn’t be that worried about the NDP losing a potential by election in Nanaimo.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #114 on: June 10, 2018, 08:22:28 pm »

Looks like Nanaimo MLA Leonard Krog may resign to run for mayor of the city. If the NDP loses the ensuing by-election, the government would fall Undecided
Nanaimo is a rather polarizing but left leaning city. The BC Liberals have a high floor (~30%) but a low ceiling which makes winning the seat  difficult. I wouldn’t be that worried about the NDP losing a potential by election in Nanaimo.

NDP-held since 1963, except two times (1969 and obviously 1999).
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Njall
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« Reply #115 on: June 10, 2018, 10:46:24 pm »

Looks like Nanaimo MLA Leonard Krog may resign to run for mayor of the city. If the NDP loses the ensuing by-election, the government would fall Undecided
Nanaimo is a rather polarizing but left leaning city. The BC Liberals have a high floor (~30%) but a low ceiling which makes winning the seat  difficult. I wouldn’t be that worried about the NDP losing a potential by election in Nanaimo.

NDP-held since 1963, except two times (1969 and obviously 1999).

Any chance for the Greens to gain enough vote share that they could allow the Liberals to sneak up the middle? I feel like that'd be too much room to make up, but I'm also not super familiar with local politics in that area.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #116 on: June 10, 2018, 10:53:36 pm »

Looks like Nanaimo MLA Leonard Krog may resign to run for mayor of the city. If the NDP loses the ensuing by-election, the government would fall Undecided
Nanaimo is a rather polarizing but left leaning city. The BC Liberals have a high floor (~30%) but a low ceiling which makes winning the seat  difficult. I wouldn’t be that worried about the NDP losing a potential by election in Nanaimo.

NDP-held since 1963, except two times (1969 and obviously 1999).

Any chance for the Greens to gain enough vote share that they could allow the Liberals to sneak up the middle? I feel like that'd be too much room to make up, but I'm also not super familiar with local politics in that area.
Unlikely they would probably need to win roughly 27% or so to let the liberals win so you get something like 35-33-27-5 split (BC Liberal-NDP-Green-Other) or something. Also I imagine if their was any serious concern about vote splitting the Greens might not run a candidate as they wouldn’t want to see the government brought down before the electoral referendum takes place.   
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MaxQue
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« Reply #117 on: June 11, 2018, 02:57:56 am »

Also, if we exclude Mainstreet (which is all over the place), all polls have a decent NDP lead.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #118 on: June 11, 2018, 07:39:17 am »

Singh continues talking with his British Columbians about Burnaby, no decision yet.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #119 on: June 11, 2018, 08:03:39 am »

Looks like Nanaimo MLA Leonard Krog may resign to run for mayor of the city. If the NDP loses the ensuing by-election, the government would fall Undecided

Could be, but Spencer Chandra Herbert mused about running for mayor of Vancouver and a few days later Solicitor General Mike Farnworth promised to crack down on ticket re-sellers which has long been a pet concern for Chandra Herbert.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4065959/ticket-scalpers-bot-crack-down-british-columbia/

Hard to believe this wasn't 'hardball politics' from Chandra Herbert. Could be that Krog has taken a lesson from that.

Of course, I could also be completely wrong.
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EarlAW
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« Reply #120 on: June 11, 2018, 10:41:48 am »

Speaking of the Vancouver mayoral race, aren't there like 4 left wing candidates right now? jfc. Why don't we just hand the NPA the mayoralty on a silver platter.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #121 on: June 13, 2018, 01:27:19 pm »

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1106675/sondage-election-partielle-chicoutimi-conservateur-votes

Riding poll by Segma in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord.

CPC 48.5%
LPC 26.7%
BQ 11.7%
NDP 8.3%
GPC 4.2%
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EarlAW
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« Reply #122 on: June 13, 2018, 02:35:59 pm »

Shocked

Usual caveats about riding polling [especially by-election riding polls] of course, but wow.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #123 on: June 13, 2018, 02:38:50 pm »

if the Conservatives do pick it up, it means that the riding will have voted for four different parties in four straight elections. Has that ever happened before?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #124 on: June 13, 2018, 02:46:11 pm »

Shocked

Usual caveats about riding polling [especially by-election riding polls] of course, but wow.

Conservatives should do well in any case, they have a star candidate (unlike the other parties), Richard Martel, former long-term head coach of the local junior (QJMHL) hockey team.
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