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  Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)  (Read 27608 times)
DC Al Fine
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« Reply #125 on: June 13, 2018, 03:28:02 pm »

if the Conservatives do pick it up, it means that the riding will have voted for four different parties in four straight elections. Has that ever happened before?

Maybe somewhere out west in the 20's and 30's?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #126 on: June 13, 2018, 03:50:20 pm »

I found two

Saskatoon City
1930: Tory
1935: Liberal
1940: United Reform (communist front)
1945: CCF

Kindersley
1930: Progressive
1935: Social Credit
1940: Liberal
1945: CCF
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JG
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« Reply #127 on: June 13, 2018, 04:01:21 pm »

Shocked

Usual caveats about riding polling [especially by-election riding polls] of course, but wow.

Conservatives should do well in any case, they have a star candidate (unlike the other parties), Richard Martel, former long-term head coach of the local junior (QJMHL) hockey team.

Yeah. I come from Jonquière, the city next to Chicoutimi and Martel is huge around here. He has it in the bag, most probably.
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Poirot
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« Reply #128 on: June 13, 2018, 04:11:50 pm »

if the Conservatives do pick it up, it means that the riding will have voted for four different parties in four straight elections. Has that ever happened before?

The federal riding of Louis-Hébert in the last four elections.
2006 Conservative
2008 Bloc Québécois
2011 NDP
2015 Liberal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis-H%C3%A9bert_(electoral_district)

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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #129 on: June 13, 2018, 04:18:32 pm »

if the Conservatives do pick it up, it means that the riding will have voted for four different parties in four straight elections. Has that ever happened before?

The federal riding of Louis-Hébert in the last four elections.
2006 Conservative
2008 Bloc Québécois
2011 NDP
2015 Liberal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis-H%C3%A9bert_(electoral_district)



Oh duh. Can't believe I missed that one
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #130 on: June 13, 2018, 05:18:31 pm »
« Edited: June 13, 2018, 05:25:07 pm by Tintrlvr »

if the Conservatives do pick it up, it means that the riding will have voted for four different parties in four straight elections. Has that ever happened before?

The federal riding of Louis-Hébert in the last four elections.
2006 Conservative
2008 Bloc Québécois
2011 NDP
2015 Liberal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis-H%C3%A9bert_(electoral_district)



Not only that but Louis-Hebert also changed hands in 2006 (BQ -> Con), 2004 (Lib -> BQ) and 2000 (BQ -> Lib) such that it has changed parties at each of the last seven federal elections. I don't think any other seat comes close. It's also elected a different, non-incumbent MP at each of the last nine federal elections, since the BQ MP first elected in 1993 stood down in 1997 and was replaced by a different BQ MP, which must also be a record. There's a reasonable chance the Conservatives gain it back at the next election, too, which would continue the pattern.
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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #131 on: June 13, 2018, 06:07:56 pm »

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1106675/sondage-election-partielle-chicoutimi-conservateur-votes

Riding poll by Segma in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord.

CPC 48.5%
LPC 26.7%
BQ 11.7%
NDP 8.3%
GPC 4.2%
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #132 on: June 14, 2018, 01:57:00 pm »

NDP MP tweets that today is Mulcair's last day in Parliament, even though he said last year he'd resign once the session ended and it doesn't for another week. At any rate, Outremont won't be called till after our provincial election.
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« Reply #133 on: June 14, 2018, 03:44:09 pm »

Provincial by-elections called for July 12 in Fort McMurray-Conklin and Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Alberta
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Fmr. Assemblyman Njall
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« Reply #134 on: June 14, 2018, 04:46:18 pm »

Provincial by-elections called for July 12 in Fort McMurray-Conklin and Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Alberta

I talked about the NDP and UCP candidates two pages back.

The Alberta Party has nominated Abigail Douglass, a young communications professional and former President of the students' association at The King's University in Edmonton, as their candidate in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake. No Alberta Party candidate has been publicly announced yet for Fort McMurray-Conklin, but I'm told that that should be happening shortly.

The Alberta Greens are also running candidates: Party President Marco Reid in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake and 2015 federal candidate Brian Deheer in Fort McMurray-Conklin.

Of note, the moribund Alberta Liberals have not yet nominated candidates for either riding. If they plan on doing so, nominations must be filed before June 25th at 2:00pm.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #135 on: June 14, 2018, 07:54:57 pm »

Provincial by-elections called for July 12 in Fort McMurray-Conklin and Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Alberta

I talked about the NDP and UCP candidates two pages back.

The Alberta Party has nominated Abigail Douglass, a young communications professional and former President of the students' association at The King's University in Edmonton, as their candidate in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake. No Alberta Party candidate has been publicly announced yet for Fort McMurray-Conklin, but I'm told that that should be happening shortly.

The Alberta Greens are also running candidates: Party President Marco Reid in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake and 2015 federal candidate Brian Deheer in Fort McMurray-Conklin.

Of note, the moribund Alberta Liberals have not yet nominated candidates for either riding. If they plan on doing so, nominations must be filed before June 25th at 2:00pm.

I wouldn't expect the NDP to win Fort McMurray-Conklin but I think this by-election could be something of a bellweather for the upcoming provincial election.

It's impossible to say for certain of course, but I think the NDP likely would have won the Fort McMurray ridings in 2015 had then Wildrose Leader Brian Jean not run there.   These more urban ridings  largely went NDP in 2015 (of course the NDP didn't win the more urban Grand Prairie ridings either which are also up north, so that's one reason why it's impossible to say for certain.)
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Fmr. Assemblyman Njall
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« Reply #136 on: June 15, 2018, 02:15:56 am »

Provincial by-elections called for July 12 in Fort McMurray-Conklin and Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Alberta

I talked about the NDP and UCP candidates two pages back.

The Alberta Party has nominated Abigail Douglass, a young communications professional and former President of the students' association at The King's University in Edmonton, as their candidate in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake. No Alberta Party candidate has been publicly announced yet for Fort McMurray-Conklin, but I'm told that that should be happening shortly.

The Alberta Greens are also running candidates: Party President Marco Reid in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake and 2015 federal candidate Brian Deheer in Fort McMurray-Conklin.

Of note, the moribund Alberta Liberals have not yet nominated candidates for either riding. If they plan on doing so, nominations must be filed before June 25th at 2:00pm.

I wouldn't expect the NDP to win Fort McMurray-Conklin but I think this by-election could be something of a bellweather for the upcoming provincial election.

It's impossible to say for certain of course, but I think the NDP likely would have won the Fort McMurray ridings in 2015 had then Wildrose Leader Brian Jean not run there.   These more urban ridings  largely went NDP in 2015 (of course the NDP didn't win the more urban Grand Prairie ridings either which are also up north, so that's one reason why it's impossible to say for certain.)

Fort McMurray sometimes has weird swings in by-elections due to low turnout and other local factors, so anything is theoretically possible there. But the UCP certainly are favoured.

Jean's presence likely helped somewhat, although it's interesting to note that the NDP and Liberals essentially performed identically in both Fort Mcmurray ridings in 2015, and Jean only did about 4% better than Tany Yao did in the other riding, with much of that seemingly coming at the expense of the PCs. That said, I doubt the NDP would have won even without Jean on the ballot. Both Fort McMurray and Grande Prairie are much more resource sector-based than southern cities like Red Deer, Lethbridge, or Medicine Hat, and the NDP of 2015 weren't seen as being super friendly to the sector, especially compared to the NDP of 2018*. On that note, and on the bellwether comment, it'll certainly be interesting to see what impact, if anything, Notley's recent actions on Trans Mountain will have up in the heart of oilsands country.

*This statement only applicable to the Alberta NDP
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #137 on: June 15, 2018, 02:35:40 am »

Provincial by-elections called for July 12 in Fort McMurray-Conklin and Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Alberta

I talked about the NDP and UCP candidates two pages back.

The Alberta Party has nominated Abigail Douglass, a young communications professional and former President of the students' association at The King's University in Edmonton, as their candidate in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake. No Alberta Party candidate has been publicly announced yet for Fort McMurray-Conklin, but I'm told that that should be happening shortly.

The Alberta Greens are also running candidates: Party President Marco Reid in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake and 2015 federal candidate Brian Deheer in Fort McMurray-Conklin.

Of note, the moribund Alberta Liberals have not yet nominated candidates for either riding. If they plan on doing so, nominations must be filed before June 25th at 2:00pm.

I wouldn't expect the NDP to win Fort McMurray-Conklin but I think this by-election could be something of a bellweather for the upcoming provincial election.

It's impossible to say for certain of course, but I think the NDP likely would have won the Fort McMurray ridings in 2015 had then Wildrose Leader Brian Jean not run there.   These more urban ridings  largely went NDP in 2015 (of course the NDP didn't win the more urban Grand Prairie ridings either which are also up north, so that's one reason why it's impossible to say for certain.)

Fort McMurray sometimes has weird swings in by-elections due to low turnout and other local factors, so anything is theoretically possible there. But the UCP certainly are favoured.

Jean's presence likely helped somewhat, although it's interesting to note that the NDP and Liberals essentially performed identically in both Fort Mcmurray ridings in 2015, and Jean only did about 4% better than Tany Yao did in the other riding, with much of that seemingly coming at the expense of the PCs. That said, I doubt the NDP would have won even without Jean on the ballot. Both Fort McMurray and Grande Prairie are much more resource sector-based than southern cities like Red Deer, Lethbridge, or Medicine Hat, and the NDP of 2015 weren't seen as being super friendly to the sector, especially compared to the NDP of 2018*. On that note, and on the bellwether comment, it'll certainly be interesting to see what impact, if anything, Notley's recent actions on Trans Mountain will have up in the heart of oilsands country.

*This statement only applicable to the Alberta NDP

Hrm, the NDP ran as pretty strong pro Oilsands in 2015, so, given the amount of union resource workers I would have expected to do better.

I meant that Jean running in Fort McMurray helped Wildrose in both ridings. Smiley
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Fmr. Assemblyman Njall
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« Reply #138 on: June 15, 2018, 12:13:37 pm »

Provincial by-elections called for July 12 in Fort McMurray-Conklin and Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Alberta

I talked about the NDP and UCP candidates two pages back.

The Alberta Party has nominated Abigail Douglass, a young communications professional and former President of the students' association at The King's University in Edmonton, as their candidate in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake. No Alberta Party candidate has been publicly announced yet for Fort McMurray-Conklin, but I'm told that that should be happening shortly.

The Alberta Greens are also running candidates: Party President Marco Reid in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake and 2015 federal candidate Brian Deheer in Fort McMurray-Conklin.

Of note, the moribund Alberta Liberals have not yet nominated candidates for either riding. If they plan on doing so, nominations must be filed before June 25th at 2:00pm.

I wouldn't expect the NDP to win Fort McMurray-Conklin but I think this by-election could be something of a bellweather for the upcoming provincial election.

It's impossible to say for certain of course, but I think the NDP likely would have won the Fort McMurray ridings in 2015 had then Wildrose Leader Brian Jean not run there.   These more urban ridings  largely went NDP in 2015 (of course the NDP didn't win the more urban Grand Prairie ridings either which are also up north, so that's one reason why it's impossible to say for certain.)

Fort McMurray sometimes has weird swings in by-elections due to low turnout and other local factors, so anything is theoretically possible there. But the UCP certainly are favoured.

Jean's presence likely helped somewhat, although it's interesting to note that the NDP and Liberals essentially performed identically in both Fort Mcmurray ridings in 2015, and Jean only did about 4% better than Tany Yao did in the other riding, with much of that seemingly coming at the expense of the PCs. That said, I doubt the NDP would have won even without Jean on the ballot. Both Fort McMurray and Grande Prairie are much more resource sector-based than southern cities like Red Deer, Lethbridge, or Medicine Hat, and the NDP of 2015 weren't seen as being super friendly to the sector, especially compared to the NDP of 2018*. On that note, and on the bellwether comment, it'll certainly be interesting to see what impact, if anything, Notley's recent actions on Trans Mountain will have up in the heart of oilsands country.

*This statement only applicable to the Alberta NDP

Hrm, the NDP ran as pretty strong pro Oilsands in 2015, so, given the amount of union resource workers I would have expected to do better.

I meant that Jean running in Fort McMurray helped Wildrose in both ridings. Smiley

The 2015 view of the NDP not being resource industry-friendly was partially because of confirmation bias on the part of a lot of Albertans, IMO. They certainly weren't hostile while campaigning, but some of their campaign points like angling for a royalty review while oil was beginning its worst downtown of a generation didn't help.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #139 on: June 15, 2018, 01:42:24 pm »

Colour me skeptical.

If the Greens get nothing and the NDP retain all of the 2015 progressive vote share, they would still need at least a swing 16% swing from old Tory and Wildrose shares. I don't really see Fort Mac as a good candidate to be Alberta's Tobique-Mactaquac.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #140 on: June 15, 2018, 08:54:38 pm »
« Edited: June 15, 2018, 09:24:36 pm by 136or142 »

Colour me skeptical.

If the Greens get nothing and the NDP retain all of the 2015 progressive vote share, they would still need at least a swing 16% swing from old Tory and Wildrose shares. I don't really see Fort Mac as a good candidate to be Alberta's Tobique-Mactaquac.

I didn't predict the NDP would win the riding.  Smiley  I wrote that it was a bellweather given the nature of the riding as described above.  If the NDP end up with 10% of the vote, for instance, they are dead outside of Calgary and Edmonton except for maybe Lethbridge.  If they end up holding on to their share of the vote, or even increasing it by taking some P.C and Liberals votes and the votes of some people who might have voted NDP in 2015 were Brian Jean not running in Fort McMurray, the NDP could be very competitive in 2019.

The NDP have 54 seats, 25 in Edmonton and its suburbs, 15 in Calgary and 2 in Lethbridge.  So, the closest bellwether for this Fort McMurray byelection are the other 12 NDP ridings.  If they don't do well in this byeletion, I think it's a signal the NDP at a minimum could not win a consecutive majority government.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #141 on: June 18, 2018, 07:46:25 pm »

First poll
Richard Martel, Conservative 40, 61.5%
Lina Boivin, Liberal, 17, 26.2%
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Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #142 on: June 18, 2018, 07:49:40 pm »

I am disappointed in the lack of TURMEL SURGE.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #143 on: June 18, 2018, 07:53:58 pm »

2 polls now
60-56 for Martel
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #144 on: June 18, 2018, 07:57:01 pm »

4 polls
160-82 for Martel

First 2 votes for Turmel!  Turmelmentum!
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #145 on: June 18, 2018, 07:59:29 pm »

5 polls
192-125
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EarlAW
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« Reply #146 on: June 18, 2018, 08:01:09 pm »

NDP is in fifth Sad
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EarlAW
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« Reply #147 on: June 18, 2018, 08:02:02 pm »

NDP is in fifth Sad

now they're in third lol
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #148 on: June 18, 2018, 08:02:19 pm »

8 polls
301-204, 3 way battle for very distant third.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #149 on: June 18, 2018, 08:03:28 pm »

10 polls
437-249

Dwarven Dragon: call this a Conservative gain over Liberals.
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