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  Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)  (Read 31343 times)
136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #225 on: July 17, 2018, 10:11:11 pm »
« edited: July 17, 2018, 10:27:44 pm by 136or142 »

48/49 Polls
Liberal: 2,266
NDP: 1,542
Green: 871
P.C: 741

They're changing the vote totals. Somebody doesn't want the Green Party to get 1,000 votes.
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trebor204
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« Reply #226 on: July 17, 2018, 10:26:39 pm »

Final

LIB 2625 42.0%
NDP 1770  28.3%
Green 1017 16.2%
PC 804 12.9%

Turnout 48.14%

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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #227 on: July 17, 2018, 10:43:25 pm »

Swings:

Lib: +22.6%
NDP: -14.1%
Grn: +4.0%
PC: -12.5%

Liberal GAIN from NDP (swing: 18.3%)


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trebor204
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« Reply #228 on: July 18, 2018, 08:40:29 pm »

The Greens manage to win a poll


http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/st-boniface-byelection-poll-results-map-1.4751381
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #229 on: July 18, 2018, 09:17:41 pm »


No surprise the Liberals won Old St. Boniface
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #230 on: July 19, 2018, 05:33:11 am »


Look, not terrible poll divisions!
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Poirot
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« Reply #231 on: July 27, 2018, 09:48:06 pm »

NDP's candidate who will try to hold Outremont is Julia Sanchez.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-candidate-outremont-1.4761028

She was president of the Canadian Council of International Cooperation. She has lived in Ottawa for seven years and before that overseas but lived in Outremont in 2004.

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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #232 on: July 29, 2018, 04:08:32 pm »

York-Simcoe federal: Peter Van Loan is leaving politics and resigning his seat Sept. 30.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #233 on: July 29, 2018, 08:34:18 pm »


Interesting, but a fairly safe Tory seat, so would be a huge shocker if they lose that one.  If they do lose it, I suspect Andrew Scheer's leadership of party would come under question, although I suspect the Tories will hold this, more interesting to see what the numbers are though.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #234 on: July 29, 2018, 09:02:04 pm »


To be fair to him, I'm not sure what he's planning to do, but it's only one year to the next election (from his retirement date) and he really should have made an effort to finish the term.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #235 on: July 29, 2018, 10:15:17 pm »

Looking at the vacant seats right now, here are my thoughts on what I think will happen.

Burnaby South: I would give the NDP a slight edge, especially if Singh runs here as the Greens have promised not to put up a candidate.  I wouldn't be shocked if the Liberals picked this up.  A Tory pickup is possible but unlikely and need a strong perfect three way split for that to happen.  Nonetheless of the five open this is the only one beyond the two they already hold they have even a remote chance at.

Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands & Rideau Lakes: Anything other than a solid Tory win would be a huge shock here.

Outremont: I think the Liberals will likely pick this up, but it will be interesting to see whether NDP forms a strong second or implodes badly, good hint on the NDP prospects in Quebec.

St. Leonard-St. Michel: Very safe Liberal riding, Liberals in a landslide.

York-Simcoe: Also a very safe Tory riding, so anything other than a solid Tory win will be a huge shocker.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #236 on: July 29, 2018, 10:19:45 pm »

Looking at the vacant seats right now, here are my thoughts on what I think will happen.

Burnaby South: I would give the NDP a slight edge, especially if Singh runs here as the Greens have promised not to put up a candidate.  I wouldn't be shocked if the Liberals picked this up.  A Tory pickup is possible but unlikely and need a strong perfect three way split for that to happen.  Nonetheless of the five open this is the only one beyond the two they already hold they have even a remote chance at.

Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands & Rideau Lakes: Anything other than a solid Tory win would be a huge shock here.

Outremont: I think the Liberals will likely pick this up, but it will be interesting to see whether NDP forms a strong second or implodes badly, good hint on the NDP prospects in Quebec.

St. Leonard-St. Michel: Very safe Liberal riding, Liberals in a landslide.

York-Simcoe: Also a very safe Tory riding, so anything other than a solid Tory win will be a huge shocker.
With the Kinder Morgan pipeline being unpopular in Burnaby I would be shocked if the NDP lost Burnaby South.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #237 on: July 29, 2018, 10:53:49 pm »

Looking at the vacant seats right now, here are my thoughts on what I think will happen.

Burnaby South: I would give the NDP a slight edge, especially if Singh runs here as the Greens have promised not to put up a candidate.  I wouldn't be shocked if the Liberals picked this up.  A Tory pickup is possible but unlikely and need a strong perfect three way split for that to happen.  Nonetheless of the five open this is the only one beyond the two they already hold they have even a remote chance at.

Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands & Rideau Lakes: Anything other than a solid Tory win would be a huge shock here.

Outremont: I think the Liberals will likely pick this up, but it will be interesting to see whether NDP forms a strong second or implodes badly, good hint on the NDP prospects in Quebec.

St. Leonard-St. Michel: Very safe Liberal riding, Liberals in a landslide.

York-Simcoe: Also a very safe Tory riding, so anything other than a solid Tory win will be a huge shocker.
With the Kinder Morgan pipeline being unpopular in Burnaby I would be shocked if the NDP lost Burnaby South.

Support for the pipeline is 20 points above opposition in BC. Granted it's obviously not that high in Burnaby South, but I am not sure it is widely opposed, just those who oppose it are the nosiest. You have a large immigrant community as well as many over 50 who care more about jobs and economy. It's more your ex hippies amongst the over 50 and native born millennials who are most opposed to it and latter tends to not show up in by-elections.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #238 on: July 29, 2018, 10:59:46 pm »

Looking at the vacant seats right now, here are my thoughts on what I think will happen.

Burnaby South: I would give the NDP a slight edge, especially if Singh runs here as the Greens have promised not to put up a candidate.  I wouldn't be shocked if the Liberals picked this up.  A Tory pickup is possible but unlikely and need a strong perfect three way split for that to happen.  Nonetheless of the five open this is the only one beyond the two they already hold they have even a remote chance at.

Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands & Rideau Lakes: Anything other than a solid Tory win would be a huge shock here.

Outremont: I think the Liberals will likely pick this up, but it will be interesting to see whether NDP forms a strong second or implodes badly, good hint on the NDP prospects in Quebec.

St. Leonard-St. Michel: Very safe Liberal riding, Liberals in a landslide.

York-Simcoe: Also a very safe Tory riding, so anything other than a solid Tory win will be a huge shocker.
With the Kinder Morgan pipeline being unpopular in Burnaby I would be shocked if the NDP lost Burnaby South.

Support for the pipeline is 20 points above opposition in BC. Granted it's obviously not that high in Burnaby South, but I am not sure it is widely opposed, just those who oppose it are the nosiest. You have a large immigrant community as well as many over 50 who care more about jobs and economy. It's more your ex hippies amongst the over 50 and native born millennials who are most opposed to it and latter tends to not show up in by-elections.
The NDP swept Burnaby fairly comfortably in 2017 provincially in  part because of opposition to Kinder Morgan. Also the conservatives and liberals will probably split the anti pipeline vote.
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Lotuslander
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« Reply #239 on: July 30, 2018, 01:43:30 am »
« Edited: July 30, 2018, 01:51:55 am by Lotuslander »

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The only election EVER fought on KM pipeline in BC was the 2013 BC provincial election. Was known as the "Kinder Morgan Surprise", which dominated latter half of campaign. BC NDP ran TV ads with oil tankers in Burrard Inlet opposing same.

Final outcome? BC NDP lost popular vote share in ALL 4 Burnaby ridings over 2009 election. Go figure.

2017 BC election? BC NDP leader Horgan told media that he "did not want to talk about KM". Wasn't an issue. At all.

In 2015 fed election? Local newspapers reported that candidates in all fed Burnaby ridings stated that KM was not even an issue at the door step.

Latest Angus Reid poll results on KM in BC:

Strongly Support: 35%
Moderately Support: 27%
Moderately Oppose: 13%
Strongly Oppose: 15%
Don't Know: 10%

Net Support: 62%
Net Oppose: 28%

Key figure here is 15% *strongly* opposed. Fringe territory.

Frankly, I'd wager that the KM pipeline would be a bigger issue in downtown T.O. riding of Toronto-Danforth than in Burnaby South. Wink

PS. KM pipeline doesn't even run through riding of Burnaby South.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #240 on: August 03, 2018, 12:57:54 pm »

Outremont vacant as of midnight. I assume a late November or early December vote.

Burnaby South vacant as of Sept. 14.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #241 on: August 05, 2018, 06:01:22 pm »

Singh's running in Burnaby South. I see both sides for Grits playing to win there.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #242 on: August 06, 2018, 05:59:43 pm »

Windsor Lake, NL will be vacant soon.
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136or142
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« Reply #243 on: August 06, 2018, 06:04:53 pm »


He won't announce until Wednesday.  It ain't for certain until Jagmeet Singhs.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #244 on: August 06, 2018, 06:29:18 pm »

Singh is probably a favourite to win the seat, as the Tory surge will keep LPC numbers relatively low compared to 2015 in seats like this.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #245 on: August 08, 2018, 03:35:57 pm »

Not only is Singh running in Burnaby but he says he'll move there and run in the general if he wins.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #246 on: August 09, 2018, 07:02:24 am »


Risky move, that isn't exactly a super safe seat. You'd think he'd run in a heavily Sikh seat in Brampton or Surrey.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #247 on: August 09, 2018, 09:41:17 am »


Well, he wants to win NOW. Promising to move will help him with that; dispelling fears to carpetbagging.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #248 on: August 09, 2018, 01:34:22 pm »

Also if you're going to gamble (and this is a huge gamble: make or break in terms of credibility), you have to do it properly or there's no way it will work.
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trebor204
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« Reply #249 on: August 12, 2018, 01:01:10 am »

Michael Barrett (34 year old municipal Councillor) wins the Tory nomination in Leeds-Grenville-etc.


https://www.recorder.ca/news/local-news/barrett-wins-tory-nod
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