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  Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)  (Read 30027 times)
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Adam T
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« Reply #300 on: September 20, 2018, 06:48:00 pm »

30/38 polls
Ches Crosbie 1,245
Paul Antle 1,144
Kerri Claire Neil 634
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mileslunn
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« Reply #301 on: September 20, 2018, 07:14:56 pm »

Antle has conceded, Ches Crosbie has won the seat by about 200 votes (one poll left) so he will be the next MHA.  Had he lost, his leadership might have come under fire so he avoided that.  Compared to the 2015 results, this was a tough one to win as it was 66% Liberal to 20% PC whereas now appears to be 42% PC to 38% Liberal and 20% NDP so looks like the NDP has bounced back a bit.  Not sure what 2011 results were as this was a new riding, so does anyone have the transposed votes as it included both PC and NDP ridings but eyeballing the numbers looks like would have narrowly gone PC.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #302 on: September 20, 2018, 09:01:36 pm »

Final results:

PC: 42.7% (+22.5)

Lib: 38.1% (-28.2)
NDP: 19.2% (+5.7%)

PC GAIN from Liberal (Swing: 25.3%)
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #303 on: October 04, 2018, 10:37:44 am »

Couillard has disclaimed his seat, so Roberval by-election next year.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #304 on: October 04, 2018, 10:42:07 am »

Couillard has disclaimed his seat, so Roberval by-election next year.

Wonder how that will go.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #305 on: October 04, 2018, 10:47:47 am »

It was swingy before Couillard. Couillard won by 17%, but I assume CAQ will target it with him gone.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #306 on: October 05, 2018, 07:01:52 am »

Couillard has disclaimed his seat, so Roberval by-election next year.

Wonder how that will go.

Would be shocked if PLQ holds this considering how poorly they did in adjacent ridings. Too rural for QS to be a factor, PQ did manage to stay competitive here unlike other regions, but I suspect with their poor showing they are now on life support. CAQ made inroads in this area so if I had to make a guess that would be mine.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #307 on: October 05, 2018, 08:46:03 am »

Should be an easy CAQ pickup. Remember, the riding used to be Conservative federally. Not that it is a right wing area, but it's proof that it can vote for conservative parties. To me, the riding feels like it goes for a) popular incumbents/candidates and/or b) whatever the flavour of the month is. To me, that means CAQ in this case.
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trebor204
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« Reply #308 on: October 13, 2018, 04:22:03 pm »

Expect Federal By-Elections to be called shortly within the next couple of weeks.

There are currently 4 ridings that are vacated. In riding of Saint-Leonard-Saint Michel, the MP (Nicola Di Lorio) still hasn't officially resigned from his seat.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-politics-briefing-liberal-mp-says-hell-quit-but-now-might-try-to/


1) Leeds–Grenville–Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes and can this riding name get any #@!#$! longer (Ont) - May 14 - Oct 30. (The dates of the by-election must be announced)
2) Outremont (Que) - Aug 14 - Jan 30
3) Burnaby South (BC) - Sept 28-Mar 18
4) York–Simcoe (Ont) - Oct 12 - Mar 30
5) Saint-Leonard-Saint Michel - MP hasn't resigned yet.

The PM has now until Oct 30, to call a by-election for Leeds-Grenville, and he can now call a by-election for York-Simcoe.

If I recall, by-elections are normally called on a Sunday, which leaves  Oct 14, 21 or 28 as possible dates to call 4 by-elections, for possible by-elections date for Monday Nov 19, Nov 26, or Dec 3.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #309 on: October 18, 2018, 11:58:28 am »

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MaxQue
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« Reply #310 on: October 24, 2018, 11:22:41 am »

Cross-posted from the municipal thread:

The Montreal by-elections will be held on December 16th. To replace:

Chantal Rouleau, mayor of the Rivière-des-Prairies--Pointe-aux-Trembles borough (Ensemble Montréal, formely Équipe Denis Coderre, formely Vision Montréal), new CAQ MNA for Pointe-aux-Trembles.

Frantz Benjamin, city councillor for St-Michel ward (Ensemble Montréal, formely Équipe Denis Coderre, formely Independant, formely Union Montréal), now Liberal MNA for Viau.

Two new things to report there:
Projet Montréal selected their candidate for Rivière-des-Prairies--Pointe-aux-Trembles borough mayor. Caroline Bourgeois, former chief of staff of Chantal Rouleau and communication director of the Montreal School Board. She is also a former city councillor for Pointe-aux-Prairies ward for Vision Montréal from 2009 to 2013 (defeated in 2013 for Coalition Montréal, the successor to Vision).

Their candidate in St-Michel is Nadine Raymond, vice-president of Conseil du Statut de la Femme (the advisory Quebec government board on gender equality) and a high-level manager at the Quebec YMCAs.

No news from Ensemble, except than their candidate in Rivière-des-Prairies--Pointe-aux-Trembles won't be Giovanni Rapana, the city councillor for Rivière-des-Prairies who left the party (the party claims it was because he wasn't selected).
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trebor204
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« Reply #311 on: October 24, 2018, 11:36:28 am »

BC NDP Sheila Malcolmson leaving Federal Politics to run for the BC NDPs


https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/malcolmson-ndp-nanaimo-bc-1.4875932
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MaxQue
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« Reply #312 on: October 24, 2018, 11:41:27 am »

There is also a by-election in Quebec City on December 9th, to replace Jonatan Julien (the new CAQ MNA for Charlesbourg) in the Neufchâtel-Lebourgneuf ward. He was elected for Équipe Labeaume in 2013 and 2017, became deputy mayor, but had a fallout with Labeame over the new police central and left the party.

Équipe Labeaume selected Dominique Turgeon, owner of a bakery/pastry restaurant.

Québec 21 (a right-wing party, main opposition on the council) selected Patrick Paquet, the former councillor for the ward. He was elected in 2005 for the Renouveau Municipal (Municipal Renewal, center-left), left it in 2008 for Équipe Labeaume (to "regain his freedom of speech"), was relected in 2009, left in 2012 (to "regain his freedom of speech", again) and joined Québec Autrement (left-wing), who merged into Démocratie Québec and he lost his seat in 2013. What a dizzying round of parties.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #313 on: October 24, 2018, 12:17:11 pm »


That is a traditional NDP riding so suspect the NDP will probably hold it although the Greens did surprisingly well so if it flips Greens most likely.  Tories have a remote chance, but they need to get back above 30% and have very strong splits.  Last time they won this riding was 2000, but that was when NDP had rock bottom support while Reform Party unlike present Tories did seem for whatever reason in BC to pull a significant number of traditional NDP voters.  It seems that group in the Interior has mostly started voting for parties on the right across the board, but on the Island mostly returned to traditional voting patterns.

In BC, due to Leonard Krog's win there is the Nanaimo by-election.  If the BC Liberals were to win it would be 43-43 thus the speaker breaking the tie so the government wouldn't necessarily fall, but would be a lot more vulnerable.  Due to Nanaimo's history, I would say NDP has strong edge, but lets remember unlike the 2005 boundaries, the 2009 boundaries are less solidly NDP.  Southern side of Nanaimo is working class and very NDP, but part of that got lopped off to Nanaimo-North Cowichan, while north side is more upper middle class so somewhat friendly to BC Liberals and redistribution did pick up part of Nanaimo-Parksville.  Still overall has more NDP strongholds and only the northern 1/3 perhaps is somewhat favourable to BC Liberals.  On the one hand usually by-elections favour the opposition so good news for the BC Liberals, but usually by-elections are a way to send a message to the government of the day without changing government.  Due to the current legislature make up, this will not be a no impact scenario thus why I think you will see higher turnout and fewer protest votes.  If NDP had a solid majority, then I think a BC Liberal pick up would be likely as one could vote for them as way to send a message without changing government, but because a BC Liberal win could trigger another election, that means people will vote more on what they favour, not use the by-election to do a protest vote.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #314 on: October 24, 2018, 12:18:03 pm »



I suspect it will probably stay PC, but you never know.  Would be a huge blow to the PCs and boon to the Liberals if this flips, but suspect it will stay PC.
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DL
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« Reply #315 on: October 24, 2018, 01:36:12 pm »


Sheila Malcolmson is probably just about the strongest candidate the BC NDP could run in that byelection and it sounds like Horgan intends to call the byelection very quickly as soon as the seat is officially vacant and get in a quick win while government is still reasonably popular.

Who knows when and if a federal byelection would take place. Chances are the federal seat wouldn't be officially vacant until late November meaning no need to call a byelection until May - at which point we are getting close to the 2019 campaign...
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #316 on: October 25, 2018, 10:26:30 am »

Hebert says odds are Grits will compete in Burnaby, but Trudeau might wait till next year for Outremont to allow Bernier's party a shot.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #317 on: October 28, 2018, 02:12:06 pm »

Leeds-Grenville by-election called for December 3.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #318 on: October 28, 2018, 02:45:28 pm »

Leeds-Grenville by-election called for December 3.

This is a very safe Tory riding, so anything other than a Tory win here would be a shock.  I would say this for the parties running in terms of how to measure support

Tories:

Over 60% is a good night as last provincial election and federally in 2011 they cracked the 60% mark.  Under 50% is a bad showing as the only time at either level this has happened in recent memory is in 2015.

Liberals:

They got 40% in 2015, but considering the history of the riding would be surprised if they repeat this.  I would say anything over 30% is a good night for the Grits as when they get over 30% here they usually form government.  In the 20s not so great, while under 20% is a bad night.

NDP:

NDP has never been particularly strong here, even in 2011 federally and 2018 provincially they performed rather poorly.  I would say over 20% is a good night for them while under 10% is a bad one.  Teens is probably their average showing.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #319 on: October 28, 2018, 02:47:49 pm »


Considering the Tories usually get in single digits here and the CAQ only got in the low teens, I don't think vote splitting really matters a lot here.  I suspect both the Tories and People's party will bomb this one badly as they usually do.  I think if it was in the regions of Quebec, then it might be more interesting, mind you Bernier's stance on supply management will probably make him pretty unpopular in rural Quebec considering how important dairy farming is to the rural economy.  The only areas in Quebec he might have support are areas with few dairy farms such as urban areas, areas too harsh in climate for farming such as Gaspésie, Cote Nord, Saguenay, Abitibi-Temiscamingue, and Nord.  And asides from Quebec City, Tories generally don't tend to fare too well in most of those areas.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #320 on: October 28, 2018, 03:50:44 pm »


Considering the Tories usually get in single digits here and the CAQ only got in the low teens, I don't think vote splitting really matters a lot here.  I suspect both the Tories and People's party will bomb this one badly as they usually do.  I think if it was in the regions of Quebec, then it might be more interesting, mind you Bernier's stance on supply management will probably make him pretty unpopular in rural Quebec considering how important dairy farming is to the rural economy.  The only areas in Quebec he might have support are areas with few dairy farms such as urban areas, areas too harsh in climate for farming such as Gaspésie, Cote Nord, Saguenay, Abitibi-Temiscamingue, and Nord.  And asides from Quebec City, Tories generally don't tend to fare too well in most of those areas.

Saguenay and the Abitibi-Témiscamingue riding are full of farms.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #321 on: October 28, 2018, 03:56:37 pm »


Considering the Tories usually get in single digits here and the CAQ only got in the low teens, I don't think vote splitting really matters a lot here.  I suspect both the Tories and People's party will bomb this one badly as they usually do.  I think if it was in the regions of Quebec, then it might be more interesting, mind you Bernier's stance on supply management will probably make him pretty unpopular in rural Quebec considering how important dairy farming is to the rural economy.  The only areas in Quebec he might have support are areas with few dairy farms such as urban areas, areas too harsh in climate for farming such as Gaspésie, Cote Nord, Saguenay, Abitibi-Temiscamingue, and Nord.  And asides from Quebec City, Tories generally don't tend to fare too well in most of those areas.

Saguenay and the Abitibi-Témiscamingue riding are full of farms.

Point taken although their population densities seem quite low for heavy agricultural areas, mind you I think they are largely limited to the river valleys, the rest being forests.  Off course that is where most live. 
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adma
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« Reply #322 on: October 28, 2018, 06:34:42 pm »

Tories:

Over 60% is a good night as last provincial election and federally in 2011 they cracked the 60% mark.  Under 50% is a bad showing as the only time at either level this has happened in recent memory is in 2015.

It depends on how far back you define "recent memory", of course, w/Ontario being a Liberal monolith pre-2004.

And as demonstration of how even outside of the Chretien era, L-G hasn't been immune to backlash against blue under certain conditions, it went Liberal already in 1988--the archetypal left-field "Free Trade Election" pickup.  (Not that anything like that is poised to happen now, of course.)
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mileslunn
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« Reply #323 on: October 28, 2018, 07:59:07 pm »

Tories:

Over 60% is a good night as last provincial election and federally in 2011 they cracked the 60% mark.  Under 50% is a bad showing as the only time at either level this has happened in recent memory is in 2015.

It depends on how far back you define "recent memory", of course, w/Ontario being a Liberal monolith pre-2004.

And as demonstration of how even outside of the Chretien era, L-G hasn't been immune to backlash against blue under certain conditions, it went Liberal already in 1988--the archetypal left-field "Free Trade Election" pickup.  (Not that anything like that is poised to happen now, of course.)

I am thinking of this century.  In 2000, the Canadian Alliance came within around 55 votes and this was almost their third seat.  Certainly in the past decade, its pretty much always been in the top 10 best Tory showings in Ontario, so unless they fall to single seats which I see as highly unlikely, you would expect them to do well here.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #324 on: November 16, 2018, 05:27:20 pm »

Former NS Health Minister and failed NDP leadership candidate Dave Wilson has resigned his Sackville-Cobequid seat.

Should be an easy NDP hold.
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