Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 21, 2019, 06:36:58 am
News: 2020 U.S. Senate Predictions are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Kenny-chan kawaii princesu)
  Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 9 10 11 12 13 [14] 15 16 17 Print
Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)  (Read 30744 times)
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 24,851
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #325 on: November 16, 2018, 07:59:43 pm »

One of the few actual 'safe NDP' seats in Atlantic Canada.
Logged
DC Al Fine
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,875
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #326 on: November 16, 2018, 09:25:48 pm »

One of the few actual 'safe NDP' seats in Atlantic Canada.

Yup. Bluecollar working class suburb. Feels quite a bit like the Hamilton or Windsor of the Maritimes to be honest.
Logged
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,734
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #327 on: November 19, 2018, 08:16:27 am »
« Edited: November 19, 2018, 08:21:22 am by RogueBeaver »



Logged
UWS
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,946


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #328 on: November 21, 2018, 08:53:00 am »
« Edited: November 21, 2018, 08:56:02 am by UWS »





And even though Beauce will be only contested in the next general election, this same poll indicates that the race in Beauce between Richard Lehoux and Maxime Bernier with Leroux leading with 37.9 % of the voting intentions over Bernier's 34.5 %. But as the PLC won 22 % of the vote in Beauce in 2015 and as the PLC candidate would be getting 31 % in Beauce in the next election according to the website Too Close to Call, I think the PLC will try to get a strong candidate there in order to make Beauce winnable for Justin Trudeau's PLC in 2019 thanks to the division of the conservative vote there.

https://www.lequotidien.com/actualites/sondage-mainstreet-bernier-et-singh-en-danger-dans-leur-circonscription-respective-82515767698b4a7032203e6aafd35c2d

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/canada-simulator.html
Logged
136or142
Adam T
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,466
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #329 on: November 21, 2018, 10:08:15 am »

Quitto Maggi doesn't have a great track record.
Logged
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,642
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #330 on: November 21, 2018, 02:07:02 pm »

Quitto Maggi doesn't have a great track record.

On provincial and federal results overall, Mainstreet is pretty good, but on municipal and riding less so.  For example in BC, the overall horserace numbers were right, but individual riding polls were way off.  For Quebec and Ontario, though the final seat projection was actually pretty close although the one big miss in Ontario was Parry Sound-Muskoka, which he predicted would go NDP and wasn't even close.
Logged
DC Al Fine
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,875
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #331 on: November 21, 2018, 02:47:28 pm »

I guess I can kind of see it. The Liberals are up in Quebec, so if they take some votes from the Bloc/NDP, and the 2018 Tory vote splits perfectly between Bernier and the Tories, I guess the Liberals could squeak through in a Gatineau-2008 type result.

Still think Bernier wins re-election though.
Logged
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,734
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #332 on: November 21, 2018, 06:10:06 pm »

Other federal by-elections will be held sometime in February.
Logged
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,734
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #333 on: November 22, 2018, 04:31:15 pm »

Logged
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,642
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #334 on: November 22, 2018, 04:34:19 pm »

This will be interesting as Jagmeet Singh's former riding is now open.  Will he run there or stay with Burnaby South.  I think due to his ties to the community, Brampton East would be a better bet.
Logged
lilTommy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,639


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #335 on: November 23, 2018, 08:13:37 am »

This will be interesting as Jagmeet Singh's former riding is now open.  Will he run there or stay with Burnaby South.  I think due to his ties to the community, Brampton East would be a better bet.

Jagmeet has basically poured himself into Burnaby South, moving now would look very very bad, it would look opportunistic and nothing more (i'm a NDP'er and think he should stay put in Burnaby). Tough call really, and part of me thinks the LPC is doing this on purpose (mildly cynical eh). IF he did move to run in Brampton East, the NDP has basically written off Burnaby South ever again, really, and this is still a winnable seat.
Just leave it NDP, find a strong candidate in Brampton (there is an NDP city Councillor, Dhillon, who previously ran for them, start casting the net) the city has quite the NDP grassroots and developing base thanks in part to Singh. The party holds 3 of the 5 seats provincially. Even in 2015, without Singh, they polled above the national vote % in Brampton East.   
Logged
DC Al Fine
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,875
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #336 on: November 23, 2018, 08:34:39 am »

This will be interesting as Jagmeet Singh's former riding is now open.  Will he run there or stay with Burnaby South.  I think due to his ties to the community, Brampton East would be a better bet.

Jagmeet has basically poured himself into Burnaby South, moving now would look very very bad, it would look opportunistic and nothing more (i'm a NDP'er and think he should stay put in Burnaby). Tough call really, and part of me thinks the LPC is doing this on purpose (mildly cynical eh). IF he did move to run in Brampton East, the NDP has basically written off Burnaby South ever again, really, and this is still a winnable seat.
Just leave it NDP, find a strong candidate in Brampton (there is an NDP city Councillor, Dhillon, who previously ran for them, start casting the net) the city has quite the NDP grassroots and developing base thanks in part to Singh. The party holds 3 of the 5 seats provincially. Even in 2015, without Singh, they polled above the national vote % in Brampton East.   

Tough call. He very well could go down in Burnaby, and presumably he'd win Brampton East in a landslide. You're right, it would be crazy opportunistic though.
Logged
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,734
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #337 on: November 23, 2018, 02:22:12 pm »

Logged
DC Al Fine
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,875
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #338 on: November 26, 2018, 11:32:57 am »

Raj Grewal resigned to deal with a gambling problem, so Brampton East being freed up is just a weird coincidence, not the Liberals playing House of Cards style 4D chess.
Logged
toaster
Full Member
***
Posts: 200
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #339 on: December 02, 2018, 09:51:25 pm »

Jagmeet should run in Brampton.  It doesn't seem opportunistic, it seems smart.  No one is under an illusion that Jagmeet is moving there just for fun. It's because a seat came open.  Now one is opening in an area he formerly represented.  The NDP is better off playing it safe for their leader.
Logged
MaxQue
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,083
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #340 on: December 02, 2018, 11:52:20 pm »

Jagmeet should run in Brampton.  It doesn't seem opportunistic, it seems smart.  No one is under an illusion that Jagmeet is moving there just for fun. It's because a seat came open.  Now one is opening in an area he formerly represented.  The NDP is better off playing it safe for their leader.

Grewal cancelled his resignation and was kicked out of the Liberals for doing so.
Logged
lilTommy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,639


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #341 on: December 03, 2018, 07:14:50 am »

There is chatter, that this was bait... the LPC was trying to bait Mr. Singh to run back "home", and it failed and this is the second now Liberal MP who looks messy about resigning-not-resigning. This is also starting to look very bad for Mark Holland who can't seem to do his job.

I don't agree with the idea he should have run in Brampton East AFTER committing to Burnaby. As mentioned above, jetting out of Burnaby South would have given the seat to the LPC, now it is competitive still but Jagmeet would have looked bad and that would have left a bad taste for those who would/could vote NDP. He showed class by sticking to the new seat, it's fitting with the narrative that he's not your typical politician, or some of the narrative around him. Yes Burnaby South was an opportunity to get a seat, but unlike most every other leader who has done this, Jagmeet committed and moved there and make this his home, not just a way into parliament.
Had Brampton East come vacant first, this would not be an issue. To me this has done nothing but help Jagmeet in Burnaby South (here's hoping)
Logged
Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,256
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #342 on: December 03, 2018, 12:30:19 pm »

Are you all looking forward to the John “The Engineer” Turmel surge tonight?
Logged
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,642
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #343 on: December 03, 2018, 06:37:31 pm »

Only two hours until polls close.  My thinking is this is the Tories to lose so I would be shocked if the Tories don't hold this, but there is a slight outside chance of a Liberal pickup, but unlikely and if they win it would be a huge boon for the Liberals and massive embarrassment for the Tories.  Rather looking at the numbers here is how I would interpret results by party

Conservatives

Over 60% is a very good night.  Federally in 2011 and provincially in 2018, the Tories got over this

50-60% a good showing, but nothing too unusual, that is usually what they get around

Under 50% This is one of the few ridings where Tories usually get over 50% so anything under 50% even if they win is a bad night.  Even in the 2014 provincial election and 2004 federal they cracked the 50% mark despite poor showings overall.  They did fall below in 2015 federally however, but that was not a good showing either.

Liberals


Over 40% - Excellent showing even if they fall short as in the last quarter century, they've only done this twice (1993 and 2015) and both were solid majorities


30-40% - Very good showing, almost anytime the Liberals have gotten over 30%, they've gone on to form government


20-30% - Okay as this seems to be their default but not great


Under 20% - Bad night, usually if they get under 20% they do poorly overall, provincial 2018 and federal 2008 and 2011.


NDP

Over 20% - Outstanding showing, even 2011 federally and 2018 provincially they were unable to crack the 20% mark.

10-20% - Average to good showing

Under 10% - Lousy showing but considering the NDP's polling numbers now, wouldn't be surprised if they get under 10%.

Too bad the PPC wasn't able to put up a candidate as this might be the first look at whether they are gaining any traction thus risk of vote splitting or as Nanos suggests nowhere.
Logged
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,734
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #344 on: December 03, 2018, 09:06:47 pm »

Tories doing as expected so far.
Logged
Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
MAINEiac4434
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,309
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #345 on: December 03, 2018, 09:14:57 pm »

Greens and Dippers running even with 25 polls in.
Logged
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,734
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #346 on: December 03, 2018, 09:19:29 pm »

Logged
Poirot
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,441
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #347 on: December 03, 2018, 10:02:02 pm »

so far 59% Conservative, 34% Liberal, NDP and Green around 3%. That makes Turmel only 3% from third place.
Logged
President Phil Scott
marco.rem451
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 344


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #348 on: December 03, 2018, 10:05:57 pm »

so far 59% Conservative, 34% Liberal, NDP and Green around 3%. That makes Turmel only 3% from third place.

Not sure, I don't really get what that means. Which party is Turkel?
Logged
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,642
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #349 on: December 03, 2018, 10:11:01 pm »

So far Tories doing not too bad, it will be interesting to see if they get over or under 60%.  While Liberals well behind, they are over the 30% mark so from a historical perspective that is actually fairly good for this riding and bodes well for them overall.  NDP is doing horrible down in low single digits.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 9 10 11 12 13 [14] 15 16 17 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC