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  Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)  (Read 27033 times)
136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #400 on: January 19, 2019, 11:44:25 am »
« edited: January 19, 2019, 12:02:48 pm by 136or142 »



A potentially much stronger candidate than Karen Wang.  Although he was never appointed to cabinet, he rose to deputy speaker and lost by just less than 10% in 2017.  The majority of eligible voters in the Burnaby North federal riding also seem to be in what was his Burnaby North provincial riding, as opposed to the Burnaby-Deer Lake riding that Karen Wang ran in in 2017.

Of course, given the unfortunate way the Gordon Campbell government ended, and the entire tenure of the government of Christy Clark, not having been part of the executive is very likely a major advantage.

He also has a solid resume: Before being elected to the Legislature, Richard was a programmer analyst at TRIUMF, Canada's national particle research facility. In 1976, he earned a Combined Honours Bachelor of Science degree from UBC in physics and mathematics, and in 1980 received a Master of Sciences from UBC in Applied Mathematics. Richard worked at UBC's Department of Mathematics from 1975 to 1979. In 1979, he started working at TRIUMF, and in 1982 became a programmer analyst. Richard attended the United States Particle Accelerator School at Berkeley in 1989 and once again in 1990 at Harvard University.
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beesley.CA.UK
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« Reply #401 on: January 19, 2019, 11:55:06 am »

I predict we will see two Liberal gains.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #402 on: January 19, 2019, 06:34:02 pm »



A potentially much stronger candidate than Karen Wang.  Although he was never appointed to cabinet, he rose to deputy speaker and lost by just less than 10% in 2017.  The majority of eligible voters in the Burnaby North federal riding also seem to be in what was his Burnaby North provincial riding, as opposed to the Burnaby-Deer Lake riding that Karen Wang ran in in 2017.

Of course, given the unfortunate way the Gordon Campbell government ended, and the entire tenure of the government of Christy Clark, not having been part of the executive is very likely a major advantage.

He also has a solid resume: Before being elected to the Legislature, Richard was a programmer analyst at TRIUMF, Canada's national particle research facility. In 1976, he earned a Combined Honours Bachelor of Science degree from UBC in physics and mathematics, and in 1980 received a Master of Sciences from UBC in Applied Mathematics. Richard worked at UBC's Department of Mathematics from 1975 to 1979. In 1979, he started working at TRIUMF, and in 1982 became a programmer analyst. Richard attended the United States Particle Accelerator School at Berkeley in 1989 and once again in 1990 at Harvard University.

As someone for disclosure who worked on his campaign in 2005, he usually outperformed predictions.  BC Liberals own internal polls in 2005 predicted he would lose by five points, but he narrowly squeaked off a win.  The big reason is he has really strong ties with the Chinese community and turnout tends to be low in that group but he is very good at getting them out to the polls.  Only risk is if a lot of the Chinese community goes Conservative as they have of recent been trending towards the Conservatives federally, but they almost never go NDP, at least not the immigrant ones (NDP provincially did make strong gains amongst this group, but I think that was more from their children who were born in Canada and likely vote the same way millennials do in general).

As for being a BC Liberal, that is a mixed bag.  It might hurt amongst some progressives as a significant chunk of the federal Liberal vote in BC loathes the provincial Liberals, but at the same time might help amongst some on the fence.  A lot of fiscally conservative types are disappointed with Trudeau and may be tempted to go Tory so having someone from the BC Liberals re-assures that group the Liberals are still fiscally responsible, not tax and spend types.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #403 on: January 19, 2019, 07:47:45 pm »



A potentially much stronger candidate than Karen Wang.  Although he was never appointed to cabinet, he rose to deputy speaker and lost by just less than 10% in 2017.  The majority of eligible voters in the Burnaby North federal riding also seem to be in what was his Burnaby North provincial riding, as opposed to the Burnaby-Deer Lake riding that Karen Wang ran in in 2017.

My mistake, this federal riding is Burnaby South.  I don't know if Lee represented any part of this federal riding or if he even lives in the federal riding.  However, he obviously is a long time resident of the city of Burnaby.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #404 on: January 20, 2019, 11:27:56 am »



A potentially much stronger candidate than Karen Wang.  Although he was never appointed to cabinet, he rose to deputy speaker and lost by just less than 10% in 2017.  The majority of eligible voters in the Burnaby North federal riding also seem to be in what was his Burnaby North provincial riding, as opposed to the Burnaby-Deer Lake riding that Karen Wang ran in in 2017.

My mistake, this federal riding is Burnaby South.  I don't know if Lee represented any part of this federal riding or if he even lives in the federal riding.  However, he obviously is a long time resident of the city of Burnaby.

A significant of provincial North is in federal South. In fact the borders are simple federally. Burbaby South is all of Burnaby south of the Lougheed Highway.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #405 on: January 20, 2019, 10:00:21 pm »



A potentially much stronger candidate than Karen Wang.  Although he was never appointed to cabinet, he rose to deputy speaker and lost by just less than 10% in 2017.  The majority of eligible voters in the Burnaby North federal riding also seem to be in what was his Burnaby North provincial riding, as opposed to the Burnaby-Deer Lake riding that Karen Wang ran in in 2017.

My mistake, this federal riding is Burnaby South.  I don't know if Lee represented any part of this federal riding or if he even lives in the federal riding.  However, he obviously is a long time resident of the city of Burnaby.

A significant of provincial North is in federal South. In fact the borders are simple federally. Burbaby South is all of Burnaby south of the Lougheed Highway.

Thanks for the information!
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lilTommy
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« Reply #406 on: January 21, 2019, 07:24:44 am »



A potentially much stronger candidate than Karen Wang.  Although he was never appointed to cabinet, he rose to deputy speaker and lost by just less than 10% in 2017.  The majority of eligible voters in the Burnaby North federal riding also seem to be in what was his Burnaby North provincial riding, as opposed to the Burnaby-Deer Lake riding that Karen Wang ran in in 2017.

My mistake, this federal riding is Burnaby South.  I don't know if Lee represented any part of this federal riding or if he even lives in the federal riding.  However, he obviously is a long time resident of the city of Burnaby.

A significant of provincial North is in federal South. In fact the borders are simple federally. Burbaby South is all of Burnaby south of the Lougheed Highway.

To be more specific, looks like less then half of Burnaby North (Prov.) is in the Fed. Burnaby South; in the 2017 Provincial election the BCLiberals won about 6 polls of the 19 or 20 I counted that are in Burnaby South (NDP won the rest). Even in the 2013 Prov election the BCLIberals (with Lee) won 14 of the 26 polls (more polls in 2013). Unfortunately for Lee, the bulk of strong BCLiberal support was north of Lougheed HWY. Could probably be easy enough for someone who knows, to transpose the results.

I think Lee is a much stronger candidate for namesake and experience, but that will be both a positive and negative. As mentioned the BCLiberals are not Progressive, in particular fiscally so, they are more conservative in most aspects then the LPC. I agree the LPC will likely lose some of the more progressive soft Liberal vote to the NDP, but I think the selection of Lee will retain or attract moderate fiscally conservative Liberals and moderate Conservatives. This whole mess does not look good on the LPC, but there is still a month to go, so will fade and become a Lee-Singh battle.
   
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UWS
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« Reply #407 on: January 24, 2019, 06:19:11 pm »

Here's why Jagmeet Singh will lose the by-election in Burnaby South : he opposes the Trudeau Government's decision to support democratic transition in Venezuela that suffered oppression, inflation and terror for such a long time.

https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201901/24/01-5212289-venezuela-le-npd-rejette-la-position-du-gouvernement-trudeau.php
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DL
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« Reply #408 on: January 24, 2019, 07:10:01 pm »

Number of voters in Burnaby South who can even find Venezuela on a map = 0
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the506
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« Reply #409 on: January 24, 2019, 09:04:58 pm »

There was a provincial by-election in Topsail-Paradise NL tonight, the riding of former PC leader Paul Davis. Easy PC hold.

Paul Dinn (PC) - 2204 (61.2%, +2.9 from 2015)
Patricia Hynes-Coates (LIB) - 1212 (33.6%, -3.2)
Kathleen Burt (NDP) - 187 (5.2%, +0.4)
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adma
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« Reply #410 on: January 25, 2019, 06:24:47 pm »

Number of voters in Burnaby South who can even find Venezuela on a map = 0

Well, maybe not that extreme; but certainly, those who are heavily preoccupied with Venezuela as an electoral deal-breaker are minimal.  Especially when it comes to a byelection, as opposed to a general election--and especially in a riding where the "ethnic" centre of gravity is far, far more Asiatic than Hispano-American...
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #411 on: January 28, 2019, 11:46:07 am »

Nanaimo: Mainstreet has Grits leading Dippers 43/35.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #412 on: January 28, 2019, 01:52:43 pm »

Nanaimo: Mainstreet has Grits leading Dippers 43/35.

While I am bit skeptical the BC Liberals will do this well, I certainly think a BC Liberal win is definitely within the realm of possibility despite normally being a safe NDP riding.  Generally by-elections have low turnouts and often those upset with the government in power are more motivated to show up.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #413 on: January 28, 2019, 05:41:23 pm »

This is getting a bit confusing for an outsider. So could you guys briefly sum up who you think will win Burnaby South and why?
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #414 on: January 29, 2019, 11:31:28 am »

A lot of ciriticism out there about Mainstreet's Nanaimo poll, and a lot of it has to do with weighting the under 35 cohort up 7 times; but I do have another theory about it, and it's based on sampling. I'm not sure how they got their sample, but we did a similar internal poll, and the initial sample wasn't geocoded properly to the riding, so we had to manually geocode it. It's possible they didn't take this step and that a large chunk of cases came from outside the riding.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #415 on: January 29, 2019, 12:58:27 pm »

A lot of ciriticism out there about Mainstreet's Nanaimo poll, and a lot of it has to do with weighting the under 35 cohort up 7 times; but I do have another theory about it, and it's based on sampling. I'm not sure how they got their sample, but we did a similar internal poll, and the initial sample wasn't geocoded properly to the riding, so we had to manually geocode it. It's possible they didn't take this step and that a large chunk of cases came from outside the riding.

Isn't the part of Nanaimo not in the riding mostly in Nanaimo-North Cowichan which is even more solidly NDP?  I think Parksville-Qualicum only includes a very tiny portion of the city.  Now its possible their polls were too heavily from the northern half of the riding as I think the north side of the city is more favourable to the BC Liberals than the south side so that could definitely skew it.  Anyways I tend to trust their results for provincial and federal as they have a good track record, but for municipal and ridings view with skepticism.  After all last BC election, they showed BC Liberals winning Saanich North & the Islands, Cowichan Valley, and Surrey-Fleetwood and none of those were that close.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #416 on: January 30, 2019, 11:01:26 am »

The sample was not just the city of Nanaimo. I didn't bother to look up what it was exactly, though.

We had a similar issue in the provincial election. Our internal riding polls were much more accurate than the publicly released ones from other firms.
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adma
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« Reply #417 on: January 30, 2019, 07:04:59 pm »

Can we transfer discussion here?
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=312465.0
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Both Sides™
Kalwejt
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« Reply #418 on: January 31, 2019, 12:37:03 am »

Can we transfer discussion here?
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=312465.0

Thread locked.
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