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  Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)  (Read 30596 times)
136or142
Adam T
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« on: January 18, 2018, 07:17:17 pm »

Will be a real snoozer as an easy BC Liberal win.  That being said smart choice in date by Horgan since if Diane Watts wins the BC Liberal leadership race, it will be too late to change candidates so she will have to ask someone else to step aside for her thus giving the NDP more leeway.  Had it been called for March, there would be enough time for Ben Stewart to step down as BC Liberal candidate and let Diane Watts run here.  Off course if any of the other four (note Sam Sullivan I am not including as he has zero chance of winning and I say this as someone who lives in his riding) this will be a non-issue as all the others already have seats.

I think the obvious choice if Diane Watts wins the leadership would be for Rich Coleman to open up his seat for her.

1.Apparently he didn't really want to run again in 2017 anyway.

2.It would be a graceful way for him to leave politics after his graceless stint as interim leader.

3.Langley Township is not quite the neighboring riding of the Surrey area, but it's not far away either

4.It's a safe Liberal seat

5.It probably makes more sense for Diane Watts to hold a seat in the Greater Vancouver area after Christy Clark's four years of 'the B.C Liberal war on Greater Vancouver' than to represent a riding in the Interior.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #1 on: January 18, 2018, 07:19:07 pm »

For the federal Chicoutimi-Le Fjord by-election, the Conservative candidate will be Richard Martel. He is a hockey coach who coached the Chicoutimi team in the Quebec Junior League.

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1074269/parti-conservateur-canada-confirme-candidature-richard-martel

People interested in running for the Liberals:
Marc Pettersen, veteran city councillor in Saguenay and was the Liberal candidate in Jonquière in last election.
Claude Bouchard who does industrial development for Promotion Saguenay, the city's economic development agency.
The name of Philippe Gagnon was also mentioned. He is in charge of sports at the university.

For the Bloc, Mario Gagnon is thinking about running. He is a firefighter involved in the collect and repair of toys for kids. He lost a nomination in the past to run for the PQ.
 

Any update on Dany Morin for the NDP?
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #2 on: February 04, 2018, 10:09:16 am »


I suspect with the new premier probably being in the honeymoon phase still and these all strong Saskatchewan Party ridings, SP should hold all three but vote totals will be interesting nonetheless.

The riding of Kindersley has apparently never been held by the NDP, but they've been competitive there at times up to the 1995 election.

Melfort is an interesting riding in that it's one of the ridings that comprised the area of east central rural ridings that used to be known as 'Red Square,' because it was a rural area that was heavily NDP.  Federally this was the Yorkton-Melville riding that New Democrat Lorne Nystrom held for a long time.  The area has changed considerably with the growth of corporate farms and the decline of family farms but the NDP candidate is a throwback, a farmer who serves on the board of the local farmer co-op and the local credit union.

The Swift Current riding generally voted for the party that formed the government until Brad Wall won the riding in 1999 while the NDP was reelected.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #3 on: February 15, 2018, 02:23:16 am »

Final results are as follows:


Total Valid Votes

% of Popular Vote


Kelowna West
  Shelley Cook BC NDP 3,197 23.47%
  Kyle Michael Ernest Geronazzo Libertarian 110 0.81%
Ben Stewart BC Liberal Party 7,692 56.46%
Robert Stupka BC Green Party 1,727 12.68%
Mark Thompson Conservative 898 6.59%
111 of 111 ballot boxes reported 13,624 100%

I would have expected the Green Party to do better.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #4 on: May 12, 2018, 01:59:53 pm »

Still my point is Burnaby South is a huge gamble and far from a slam dunk.  New Westminster-Burnaby or Vancouver East, agreed the NDP would easily hold, but neither MP is stepping down.

How "huge" a gamble is it?  Remember that 2015 was skewed by Justinmania vs Mulcair's dreary leadership; and that provincially, it was still the Christy Clark regime and voters were jaded about the BC NDP after so many failed/thwarted kicks at the can.

Of course, to state the obvious: there's an operating assumption here that suburban Vancouver would be less averse to electing a turbanned Sikh than inner-city Montreal (much less Quebec at large)


Was it?  The B.C samples don't show a large change between the NDP and the Liberals since 2015 and Kennedy Stewart was reelected by just 547 votes against a low profile young liberal candidate (although apparently his family had some connections throughout Burnaby.)

Burnaby isn't overwhelmingly NDP.

I'd say this could be a lean NDP riding with Singh running, but the voters might not like a non Burnaby (or British Columbian) running for the seat.  Given the latest polls, this could be a three way race.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #5 on: June 11, 2018, 08:03:39 am »

Looks like Nanaimo MLA Leonard Krog may resign to run for mayor of the city. If the NDP loses the ensuing by-election, the government would fall Undecided

Could be, but Spencer Chandra Herbert mused about running for mayor of Vancouver and a few days later Solicitor General Mike Farnworth promised to crack down on ticket re-sellers which has long been a pet concern for Chandra Herbert.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4065959/ticket-scalpers-bot-crack-down-british-columbia/

Hard to believe this wasn't 'hardball politics' from Chandra Herbert. Could be that Krog has taken a lesson from that.

Of course, I could also be completely wrong.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #6 on: June 14, 2018, 07:54:57 pm »

Provincial by-elections called for July 12 in Fort McMurray-Conklin and Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Alberta

I talked about the NDP and UCP candidates two pages back.

The Alberta Party has nominated Abigail Douglass, a young communications professional and former President of the students' association at The King's University in Edmonton, as their candidate in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake. No Alberta Party candidate has been publicly announced yet for Fort McMurray-Conklin, but I'm told that that should be happening shortly.

The Alberta Greens are also running candidates: Party President Marco Reid in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake and 2015 federal candidate Brian Deheer in Fort McMurray-Conklin.

Of note, the moribund Alberta Liberals have not yet nominated candidates for either riding. If they plan on doing so, nominations must be filed before June 25th at 2:00pm.

I wouldn't expect the NDP to win Fort McMurray-Conklin but I think this by-election could be something of a bellweather for the upcoming provincial election.

It's impossible to say for certain of course, but I think the NDP likely would have won the Fort McMurray ridings in 2015 had then Wildrose Leader Brian Jean not run there.   These more urban ridings  largely went NDP in 2015 (of course the NDP didn't win the more urban Grand Prairie ridings either which are also up north, so that's one reason why it's impossible to say for certain.)
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #7 on: June 15, 2018, 02:35:40 am »

Provincial by-elections called for July 12 in Fort McMurray-Conklin and Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Alberta

I talked about the NDP and UCP candidates two pages back.

The Alberta Party has nominated Abigail Douglass, a young communications professional and former President of the students' association at The King's University in Edmonton, as their candidate in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake. No Alberta Party candidate has been publicly announced yet for Fort McMurray-Conklin, but I'm told that that should be happening shortly.

The Alberta Greens are also running candidates: Party President Marco Reid in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake and 2015 federal candidate Brian Deheer in Fort McMurray-Conklin.

Of note, the moribund Alberta Liberals have not yet nominated candidates for either riding. If they plan on doing so, nominations must be filed before June 25th at 2:00pm.

I wouldn't expect the NDP to win Fort McMurray-Conklin but I think this by-election could be something of a bellweather for the upcoming provincial election.

It's impossible to say for certain of course, but I think the NDP likely would have won the Fort McMurray ridings in 2015 had then Wildrose Leader Brian Jean not run there.   These more urban ridings  largely went NDP in 2015 (of course the NDP didn't win the more urban Grand Prairie ridings either which are also up north, so that's one reason why it's impossible to say for certain.)

Fort McMurray sometimes has weird swings in by-elections due to low turnout and other local factors, so anything is theoretically possible there. But the UCP certainly are favoured.

Jean's presence likely helped somewhat, although it's interesting to note that the NDP and Liberals essentially performed identically in both Fort Mcmurray ridings in 2015, and Jean only did about 4% better than Tany Yao did in the other riding, with much of that seemingly coming at the expense of the PCs. That said, I doubt the NDP would have won even without Jean on the ballot. Both Fort McMurray and Grande Prairie are much more resource sector-based than southern cities like Red Deer, Lethbridge, or Medicine Hat, and the NDP of 2015 weren't seen as being super friendly to the sector, especially compared to the NDP of 2018*. On that note, and on the bellwether comment, it'll certainly be interesting to see what impact, if anything, Notley's recent actions on Trans Mountain will have up in the heart of oilsands country.

*This statement only applicable to the Alberta NDP

Hrm, the NDP ran as pretty strong pro Oilsands in 2015, so, given the amount of union resource workers I would have expected to do better.

I meant that Jean running in Fort McMurray helped Wildrose in both ridings. Smiley
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #8 on: June 15, 2018, 08:54:38 pm »
« Edited: June 15, 2018, 09:24:36 pm by 136or142 »

Colour me skeptical.

If the Greens get nothing and the NDP retain all of the 2015 progressive vote share, they would still need at least a swing 16% swing from old Tory and Wildrose shares. I don't really see Fort Mac as a good candidate to be Alberta's Tobique-Mactaquac.

I didn't predict the NDP would win the riding.  Smiley  I wrote that it was a bellweather given the nature of the riding as described above.  If the NDP end up with 10% of the vote, for instance, they are dead outside of Calgary and Edmonton except for maybe Lethbridge.  If they end up holding on to their share of the vote, or even increasing it by taking some P.C and Liberals votes and the votes of some people who might have voted NDP in 2015 were Brian Jean not running in Fort McMurray, the NDP could be very competitive in 2019.

The NDP have 54 seats, 25 in Edmonton and its suburbs, 15 in Calgary and 2 in Lethbridge.  So, the closest bellwether for this Fort McMurray byelection are the other 12 NDP ridings.  If they don't do well in this byeletion, I think it's a signal the NDP at a minimum could not win a consecutive majority government.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #9 on: June 18, 2018, 07:46:25 pm »

First poll
Richard Martel, Conservative 40, 61.5%
Lina Boivin, Liberal, 17, 26.2%
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #10 on: June 18, 2018, 07:53:58 pm »

2 polls now
60-56 for Martel
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #11 on: June 18, 2018, 07:57:01 pm »

4 polls
160-82 for Martel

First 2 votes for Turmel!  Turmelmentum!
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #12 on: June 18, 2018, 07:59:29 pm »

5 polls
192-125
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #13 on: June 18, 2018, 08:02:19 pm »

8 polls
301-204, 3 way battle for very distant third.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #14 on: June 18, 2018, 08:03:28 pm »

10 polls
437-249

Dwarven Dragon: call this a Conservative gain over Liberals.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #15 on: June 18, 2018, 08:04:15 pm »

15 polls
692-364
NPD solidifying distant third.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #16 on: June 18, 2018, 08:08:02 pm »

20 polls 854-460. NDP in 3rd at 139 (8.5%.) Turmel with a third vote!
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #17 on: June 18, 2018, 08:09:59 pm »

25 polls
971-516.  NDP in third with 166 votes (8.9%)
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #18 on: June 18, 2018, 08:11:21 pm »

30 polls
1177-650.  NDP in third with 204 (9.0%)
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #19 on: June 18, 2018, 08:12:51 pm »

35 polls
1400-840.  NDP in third with 231 (8.3%.) Turmel up to 6 votes.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #20 on: June 18, 2018, 08:14:09 pm »

40 polls
1638-956.  NDP in third with 274 (8.5%.) Turmel at 10 votes!
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #21 on: June 18, 2018, 08:15:53 pm »

45 polls
1923-1107.  NDP in 3rd with 312 (8.3%)  Turmel at 14 votes.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #22 on: June 18, 2018, 08:17:55 pm »

50 polls
2,261-1251.  NDP in third with 362 (8.4%)
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #23 on: June 18, 2018, 08:27:52 pm »

Now up to 70 of 188 polls reporting.  Percentages haven't changed significantly.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #24 on: July 16, 2018, 01:07:32 am »

Saint Boniface this Tuesday will probably be an easy NDP hold, but numbers should be interesting.  The polls I've seen shows the PCs have held their support in rural Manitoba, but dropped by double digits in Winnipeg so be interesting to see the numbers even though they have no chance here.  Liberals do well here federally so be interesting if they are able to benefit from unpopularity of provincial PCs and reluctance to return to the NDP who are still too fresh in many people's minds.

The provincial PCs have rebounded in support. Brian Pallister seems to be turning out to be a very capable Premier.
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