Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)

[Tintrlvr]

if the Conservatives do pick it up, it means that the riding will have voted for four different parties in four straight elections. Has that ever happened before?

The federal riding of Louis-Hébert in the last four elections.
2006 Conservative
2008 Bloc Québécois
2011 NDP
2015 Liberal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis-H%C3%A9bert_(electoral_district)

Not only that but Louis-Hebert also changed hands in 2006 (BQ -> Con), 2004 (Lib -> BQ) and 2000 (BQ -> Lib) such that it has changed parties at each of the last seven federal elections. I don't think any other seat comes close. It's also elected a different, non-incumbent MP at each of the last nine federal elections, since the BQ MP first elected in 1993 stood down in 1997 and was replaced by a different BQ MP, which must also be a record. There's a reasonable chance the Conservatives gain it back at the next election, too, which would continue the pattern.

[Tintrlvr]

Final results are:

CAQ 54.53%
PQ 17.51%
PLQ 15.21%
QS 10.32%

Have there been any province-wide polls since the GE? CAQ victory is not a surprise, but third place and just 15% is shockingly bad for the PLQ.

[Tintrlvr]

Have there been any province-wide polls since the GE? CAQ victory is not a surprise, but third place and just 15% is shockingly bad for the PLQ.

Though it's probably not terribly unlike what would have happened in Couillard's absence.  And whatever the provincewide polls, the Anglo core's solid.  (Interesting, though, if we have a province-wide 2nd place for QS situation brewing)

PLQ has never done worse than 25% in that riding before (previous nadir was in 1998), so it's definitely a worse result for them than a typical losing-the-GE result. The Anglo core being solid doesn't help the PLQ if they're getting barely out of single digits with Francophones.