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  Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)  (Read 27179 times)
MaxQue
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« on: January 18, 2018, 10:50:32 pm »

For the federal Chicoutimi-Le Fjord by-election, the Conservative candidate will be Richard Martel. He is a hockey coach who coached the Chicoutimi team in the Quebec Junior League.

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1074269/parti-conservateur-canada-confirme-candidature-richard-martel

People interested in running for the Liberals:
Marc Pettersen, veteran city councillor in Saguenay and was the Liberal candidate in Jonquière in last election.
Claude Bouchard who does industrial development for Promotion Saguenay, the city's economic development agency.
The name of Philippe Gagnon was also mentioned. He is in charge of sports at the university.

For the Bloc, Mario Gagnon is thinking about running. He is a firefighter involved in the collect and repair of toys for kids. He lost a nomination in the past to run for the PQ.
 

Any update on Dany Morin for the NDP?

Singh is visiting Chicoutimi on the 24th, we might get more information then.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1 on: April 03, 2018, 08:15:25 pm »

Depends who is the Liberal candidate. Claude Bouchard can't win, he's way too close to the former corrupt administration of Saguenay City and which was destroyed at the last election (they went from 64% to 6% in the mayoral contest and from 17/19 seats to 1/15).
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MaxQue
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« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2018, 06:24:28 pm »

Kennedy Stewart, NDP MP for Burnaby South is making an announcement about possibly running for Mayor of Vancouver today. If he resigns his seat, it may open up a more friendly spot for Singh to run in than Outremont.

Still even Burnaby South is far from a safe one and if Singh loses there he is done as leader.  I could see the Liberals who almost won in 2015 picking it up and while not a Conservative riding a slight uptick for them and a perfect split could allow them to slip up the middle (you would need a perfect split for them to win there).

Even with the NDP polling about at 2015 or lower, they have been polling higher in BC. I don't see the Liberals winning in this climate, their overt pro-pipeline stance is not very popular from what I can see in the Metro area, and particularly Burnaby. The provincial BCNDP seem to be relatively popular, If the NDP nominate a strong candidate or even Singh as a seat filler till 2019 I see the NDP winning the seat.

Actually polling average shows NDP down slightly in BC at a federal level but with Trudeau moving leftward you have a lot of cross over Liberal federal, NDP provincial votes.  On the pipeline, polls show a clear majority in BC want it, although this is provincewide so its possible in Burnaby most are against it and its further afield that people support it.  Horgan's numbers are so-so but better than most premiers.  The budget was popular, but his stance on pipelines is not and recent polls are mixed bag with Angus-Reid showing NDP ahead by 5, Mainstreet, the BC Liberals by 2 and 6 respectively so with no election on the horizon tough to say who is right and I suspect if an election were held today over 80% possibly 90% of seats would go the same way they did a year ago.

Still my point is Burnaby South is a huge gamble and far from a slam dunk.  New Westminster-Burnaby or Vancouver East, agreed the NDP would easily hold, but neither MP is stepping down.

The pools about it with regional samples have the pipeline being the least popular in Metro Vancouver and the most in non-Vancouver mainland.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #3 on: June 10, 2018, 08:22:28 pm »

Looks like Nanaimo MLA Leonard Krog may resign to run for mayor of the city. If the NDP loses the ensuing by-election, the government would fall Undecided
Nanaimo is a rather polarizing but left leaning city. The BC Liberals have a high floor (~30%) but a low ceiling which makes winning the seat  difficult. I wouldn’t be that worried about the NDP losing a potential by election in Nanaimo.

NDP-held since 1963, except two times (1969 and obviously 1999).
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MaxQue
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« Reply #4 on: June 11, 2018, 02:57:56 am »

Also, if we exclude Mainstreet (which is all over the place), all polls have a decent NDP lead.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #5 on: June 13, 2018, 01:27:19 pm »

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1106675/sondage-election-partielle-chicoutimi-conservateur-votes

Riding poll by Segma in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord.

CPC 48.5%
LPC 26.7%
BQ 11.7%
NDP 8.3%
GPC 4.2%
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MaxQue
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« Reply #6 on: June 13, 2018, 02:46:11 pm »

Shocked

Usual caveats about riding polling [especially by-election riding polls] of course, but wow.

Conservatives should do well in any case, they have a star candidate (unlike the other parties), Richard Martel, former long-term head coach of the local junior (QJMHL) hockey team.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2018, 11:22:41 am »

Cross-posted from the municipal thread:

The Montreal by-elections will be held on December 16th. To replace:

Chantal Rouleau, mayor of the Rivière-des-Prairies--Pointe-aux-Trembles borough (Ensemble Montréal, formely Équipe Denis Coderre, formely Vision Montréal), new CAQ MNA for Pointe-aux-Trembles.

Frantz Benjamin, city councillor for St-Michel ward (Ensemble Montréal, formely Équipe Denis Coderre, formely Independant, formely Union Montréal), now Liberal MNA for Viau.

Two new things to report there:
Projet Montréal selected their candidate for Rivière-des-Prairies--Pointe-aux-Trembles borough mayor. Caroline Bourgeois, former chief of staff of Chantal Rouleau and communication director of the Montreal School Board. She is also a former city councillor for Pointe-aux-Prairies ward for Vision Montréal from 2009 to 2013 (defeated in 2013 for Coalition Montréal, the successor to Vision).

Their candidate in St-Michel is Nadine Raymond, vice-president of Conseil du Statut de la Femme (the advisory Quebec government board on gender equality) and a high-level manager at the Quebec YMCAs.

No news from Ensemble, except than their candidate in Rivière-des-Prairies--Pointe-aux-Trembles won't be Giovanni Rapana, the city councillor for Rivière-des-Prairies who left the party (the party claims it was because he wasn't selected).
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MaxQue
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« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2018, 11:41:27 am »

There is also a by-election in Quebec City on December 9th, to replace Jonatan Julien (the new CAQ MNA for Charlesbourg) in the Neufchâtel-Lebourgneuf ward. He was elected for Équipe Labeaume in 2013 and 2017, became deputy mayor, but had a fallout with Labeame over the new police central and left the party.

Équipe Labeaume selected Dominique Turgeon, owner of a bakery/pastry restaurant.

Québec 21 (a right-wing party, main opposition on the council) selected Patrick Paquet, the former councillor for the ward. He was elected in 2005 for the Renouveau Municipal (Municipal Renewal, center-left), left it in 2008 for Équipe Labeaume (to "regain his freedom of speech"), was relected in 2009, left in 2012 (to "regain his freedom of speech", again) and joined Québec Autrement (left-wing), who merged into Démocratie Québec and he lost his seat in 2013. What a dizzying round of parties.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2018, 03:50:44 pm »

Hebert says odds are Grits will compete in Burnaby, but Trudeau might wait till next year for Outremont to allow Bernier's party a shot.

Considering the Tories usually get in single digits here and the CAQ only got in the low teens, I don't think vote splitting really matters a lot here.  I suspect both the Tories and People's party will bomb this one badly as they usually do.  I think if it was in the regions of Quebec, then it might be more interesting, mind you Bernier's stance on supply management will probably make him pretty unpopular in rural Quebec considering how important dairy farming is to the rural economy.  The only areas in Quebec he might have support are areas with few dairy farms such as urban areas, areas too harsh in climate for farming such as Gaspésie, Cote Nord, Saguenay, Abitibi-Temiscamingue, and Nord.  And asides from Quebec City, Tories generally don't tend to fare too well in most of those areas.

Saguenay and the Abitibi-Témiscamingue riding are full of farms.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #10 on: December 02, 2018, 11:52:20 pm »

Jagmeet should run in Brampton.  It doesn't seem opportunistic, it seems smart.  No one is under an illusion that Jagmeet is moving there just for fun. It's because a seat came open.  Now one is opening in an area he formerly represented.  The NDP is better off playing it safe for their leader.

Grewal cancelled his resignation and was kicked out of the Liberals for doing so.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #11 on: December 11, 2018, 03:07:45 pm »

There is also a by-election in Quebec City on December 9th, to replace Jonatan Julien (the new CAQ MNA for Charlesbourg) in the Neufchâtel-Lebourgneuf ward. He was elected for Équipe Labeaume in 2013 and 2017, became deputy mayor, but had a fallout with Labeame over the new police central and left the party.

Équipe Labeaume selected Dominique Turgeon, owner of a bakery/pastry restaurant.

Québec 21 (a right-wing party, main opposition on the council) selected Patrick Paquet, the former councillor for the ward. He was elected in 2005 for the Renouveau Municipal (Municipal Renewal, center-left), left it in 2008 for Équipe Labeaume (to "regain his freedom of speech"), was relected in 2009, left in 2012 (to "regain his freedom of speech", again) and joined Québec Autrement (left-wing), who merged into Démocratie Québec and he lost his seat in 2013. What a dizzying round of parties.

Québec 21 won with 2264 votes (49.3%) against 2139 votes for the Labeaume candidate (46.5%) with 193 votes (4.2%) for a left-wing candidate.

Montreal by-elections next weekend.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #12 on: December 17, 2018, 12:58:39 pm »

Cross-posted from the municipal thread:

The Montreal by-elections will be held on December 16th. To replace:

Chantal Rouleau, mayor of the Rivière-des-Prairies--Pointe-aux-Trembles borough (Ensemble Montréal, formely Équipe Denis Coderre, formely Vision Montréal), new CAQ MNA for Pointe-aux-Trembles.

Frantz Benjamin, city councillor for St-Michel ward (Ensemble Montréal, formely Équipe Denis Coderre, formely Independant, formely Union Montréal), now Liberal MNA for Viau.

Two new things to report there:
Projet Montréal selected their candidate for Rivière-des-Prairies--Pointe-aux-Trembles borough mayor. Caroline Bourgeois, former chief of staff of Chantal Rouleau and communication director of the Montreal School Board. She is also a former city councillor for Pointe-aux-Prairies ward for Vision Montréal from 2009 to 2013 (defeated in 2013 for Coalition Montréal, the successor to Vision).

Their candidate in St-Michel is Nadine Raymond, vice-president of Conseil du Statut de la Femme (the advisory Quebec government board on gender equality) and a high-level manager at the Quebec YMCAs.

No news from Ensemble, except than their candidate in Rivière-des-Prairies--Pointe-aux-Trembles won't be Giovanni Rapana, the city councillor for Rivière-des-Prairies who left the party (the party claims it was because he wasn't selected).

Projet gained the mayorship of Rivière-des-Prairies--Pointe-aux-Trembles.

Caroline Bourgeois (Projet Montréal) 5314 votes (48.63%; +6.00)
Manuel Guedes (Ensemble Montréal) 4951 votes (45.31%; -12.06)
Marius Minier (Independent) 662 votes (6.06%)

Manuel Guedes was a borough councillor for Pointe-aux-Prairies for Équipe Denis Coderre from 2013 to 2017, when he lost his seat by 30 votes.

Marius Minier was elected as one of the councillors in 3-seater Mercier in 1974 for Citizens' Movement (left-wing opposition to the autocratic rule of right-winger Jean Drapeau) and lost in 1978 (when the council became all single-member seats) in Longue-Pointe. He came back in 1998 as a Vision councillor for Pointe-aux-Trembles. and held office until 2005 when he tried to become borough mayor and lost as a candidate of right-wing "Team Ville-Marie".

In Saint-Michel, Ensemble kept the seat.

Josué Corvil (Ensemble Montréal) 943 votes (40.45%; -21.50)
Nadine Raymond (Projet Montréal) 772 votes (33.12%; -4.93)
Réginald Pierre (Independent) 616 votes (26.43%)

Josué Corvil is a municipal librairian. Réginald Pierre was an employee of the former local MNA, David Heurtel.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #13 on: January 20, 2019, 11:27:56 am »



A potentially much stronger candidate than Karen Wang.  Although he was never appointed to cabinet, he rose to deputy speaker and lost by just less than 10% in 2017.  The majority of eligible voters in the Burnaby North federal riding also seem to be in what was his Burnaby North provincial riding, as opposed to the Burnaby-Deer Lake riding that Karen Wang ran in in 2017.

My mistake, this federal riding is Burnaby South.  I don't know if Lee represented any part of this federal riding or if he even lives in the federal riding.  However, he obviously is a long time resident of the city of Burnaby.

A significant of provincial North is in federal South. In fact the borders are simple federally. Burbaby South is all of Burnaby south of the Lougheed Highway.
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