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  Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)  (Read 30609 times)
mileslunn
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« on: January 09, 2018, 03:18:47 pm »

Nothing scheduled so far, but the following seats are vacant:

Federal:
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord,QC
(Outremont, QC will be vacated later this year)

Provincial:
Kindersley, SK
Kelowna West, BC

No major municipal by-elections on the horizon that I know of.

Federal:

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord:  While all four parties in the house of commons have won this seat in the last 25 years, barring some major changes in polling numbers in Quebec, I suspect the Liberals will hold this.  Who comes in second and with what percentage should be interesting.

Outremont:  Most likely a Liberal pickup although this is one of the more favourable seats towards the NDP in terms of its history and demographics so if the NDP is able to show they are still relevant in Quebec, this is one they need to win, so favours Liberals but NDP win at least plausible.

Provincial:

Kindersley: Is a very safe Saskatchewan Party seat so expect they will probably hold this albeit by a much smaller margin than in the last general election, so it will be interesting how much things tighten here.  Even in the 1991 NDP landslide they didn't win this thus why I don't expect them to pick this up, but I do expect they will do a lot better than they have in the past few elections.

Kelowna West: Very safe BC Liberal riding so expect the BC Liberals to easily hold this although numbers will be interesting.  Even if the Greens don't put up a candidate and the BC Conservatives put up one I doubt that would be enough to allow the NDP to pick this up.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1 on: January 09, 2018, 08:47:26 pm »

Melfort and Swift Current are pretty safe Saskatchewan Party seats so should tighten up, but would be a huge shocker if the NDP did win those.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #2 on: January 10, 2018, 04:01:17 pm »

Melfort and Swift Current are pretty safe Saskatchewan Party seats so should tighten up, but would be a huge shocker if the NDP did win those.

Swift Current is an odd seat because it is an urban seat, and Brad Wall being the Premier has definitely had an effect on the election results there, as he’s actually from Swift Current, having spent his entire life there and having kept living there since he became Premier.

It is very much reminiscent of the Medicine Hat seat that the Alberta NDP won in 2015, where it is federally a strong federal Tory area, but because of its urban characteristics, a provincial win for a left-of-centre party is possible if they are sweeping the province. I don’t think the NDP would win a by-election there, but it could be close and end up being seriously contested in the 2020 general election.

It's only 15,000 people so pretty small, usually NDP only starts winning in cities over 30,000 like Moose Jaw and Prince Albert.  Also the southern parts of Saskatchewan near the US border have always tended to go for parties on the right no matter what.  In some ways their politics is more like North Dakota/Montana than the rest of Saskatchewan.  True the NDP will probably do a lot better in Swift Current and if they had two right wing parties they could win it much like Medicine Hat (I highly doubt the NDP will hold Medicine Hat in 2019, Lethbridge is the only city they might hold as they have the university).
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mileslunn
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« Reply #3 on: January 17, 2018, 04:47:58 pm »

Will be a real snoozer as an easy BC Liberal win.  That being said smart choice in date by Horgan since if Diane Watts wins the BC Liberal leadership race, it will be too late to change candidates so she will have to ask someone else to step aside for her thus giving the NDP more leeway.  Had it been called for March, there would be enough time for Ben Stewart to step down as BC Liberal candidate and let Diane Watts run here.  Off course if any of the other four (note Sam Sullivan I am not including as he has zero chance of winning and I say this as someone who lives in his riding) this will be a non-issue as all the others already have seats.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #4 on: January 18, 2018, 08:58:42 pm »

Will be a real snoozer as an easy BC Liberal win.  That being said smart choice in date by Horgan since if Diane Watts wins the BC Liberal leadership race, it will be too late to change candidates so she will have to ask someone else to step aside for her thus giving the NDP more leeway.  Had it been called for March, there would be enough time for Ben Stewart to step down as BC Liberal candidate and let Diane Watts run here.  Off course if any of the other four (note Sam Sullivan I am not including as he has zero chance of winning and I say this as someone who lives in his riding) this will be a non-issue as all the others already have seats.

I think the obvious choice if Diane Watts wins the leadership would be for Rich Coleman to open up his seat for her.

1.Apparently he didn't really want to run again in 2017 anyway.

2.It would be a graceful way for him to leave politics after his graceless stint as interim leader.

3.Langley Township is not quite the neighboring riding of the Surrey area, but it's not far away either

4.It's a safe Liberal seat

5.It probably makes more sense for Diane Watts to hold a seat in the Greater Vancouver area after Christy Clark's four years of 'the B.C Liberal war on Greater Vancouver' than to represent a riding in the Interior.

Probably not a bad idea.  I think the main reason though many BC Liberals would be concerned about this is it gives the NDP an extra seat, but realistically I cannot see the government falling before 2019 probably much later.  The other possibility is to ask Stephanie Cadieux or Marvin Hunt to step aside is those are actually Surrey ridings and in the case of Stephanie Cadieux that is a very safe BC Liberal riding.  Marvin Hunt's was in the past but changing demographics make it somewhat less so as well as the old boundaries of Surrey-Cloverdale were much more BC Liberal friendly than the current ones.  Still as a popular former mayor of Surrey and if she was leader I suspect she could win either of those.  I excluded Surrey-White Rock as the MLA there is a rookie so doubt she will step aside.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #5 on: January 24, 2018, 02:47:59 pm »

Cumberland South was until recently a PC stronghold where they usually topped 60% and sometimes even 70%, but in recent elections it has become a lot more competitive so a Liberal pick up is definitely possible especially if they have a strong candidate.  Could also stay PC and in fact the next PC leader is not part of the caucus might be a good riding to run in.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #6 on: January 24, 2018, 03:48:48 pm »

Nothing scheduled so far, but the following seats are vacant:

Provincial:
Kindersley, SK
Melfort, SK
(Swift Current, SK will be vacated soon)


The most recent mainstreet poll gives the Saskatchewan Party a 17 point lead and Angus-Reid also showed an 8 percent jump in Wall's approval rating (This seems to be common for outgoing leaders to help their parties, same happened with Obama had approval ratings in the 40s but jumped to high 50s near the end) so with the current numbers I think SP is pretty safe in these three.  Maybe next year depending on how the new leaders do could change things.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #7 on: January 25, 2018, 01:59:43 am »

I presume in Ontario, a Simcoe North byelection will be pre-empted by the general election ;-)

He is staying on as MPP, so no by-election there.  Nonetheless it will be interesting to see if the PCs choose a new candidate for Barrie-Oro Medonte-Springwater or not.  Probably better to drop him altogether as this will just dog them in the campaign.  The federal election is in 2019 so by then the case will have gone through the courts and he can always run there although the two Barrie ridings are taken, but maybe Simcoe North will open up again as Bruce Stanton has been there since 2006 and is in his early 60s.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2018, 02:10:45 am »

I presume in Ontario, a Simcoe North byelection will be pre-empted by the general election ;-)

He is staying on as MPP, so no by-election there.  Nonetheless it will be interesting to see if the PCs choose a new candidate for Barrie-Oro Medonte-Springwater or not.  Probably better to drop him altogether as this will just dog them in the campaign.  The federal election is in 2019 so by then the case will have gone through the courts and he can always run there although the two Barrie ridings are taken, but maybe Simcoe North will open up again as Bruce Stanton has been there since 2006 and is in his early 60s.

I don’t think he has a future in politics. I don’t think Roy Moore actually had non-oral penetrative sex with the high school girls he dated. Patrick Brown did.

Agree he is probably finished, but certainly he will never become premier.  And he will only ever be able to run if it is actually proven they are false, getting off due to a technicality or reasonable doubt won't be sufficient.  And I think even though the evidence looks quite strong he did this, because the women were drunk there probably is a strong chance he will get acquitted.  I've heard only 3% of sexual assaults result in conviction as our justice system is based on unless something can be proven beyond a reasonable doubt, you must acquit so without physical evidence or multiple witnesses it's tough to get a conviction for any crime.  Still even if he never goes to prison, he is damaged goods.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #9 on: February 02, 2018, 10:22:03 pm »


I suspect with the new premier probably being in the honeymoon phase still and these all strong Saskatchewan Party ridings, SP should hold all three but vote totals will be interesting nonetheless.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #10 on: February 04, 2018, 04:34:05 pm »

I presume in Ontario, a Simcoe North byelection will be pre-empted by the general election ;-)

He is staying on as MPP, so no by-election there.  Nonetheless it will be interesting to see if the PCs choose a new candidate for Barrie-Oro Medonte-Springwater or not.  Probably better to drop him altogether as this will just dog them in the campaign.  The federal election is in 2019 so by then the case will have gone through the courts and he can always run there although the two Barrie ridings are taken, but maybe Simcoe North will open up again as Bruce Stanton has been there since 2006 and is in his early 60s.

I wonder if Ann Hoggarth will try to switch ridings.  She is nominated in Barrie - Innisfil but Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte is much more winnable for the Liberals.  It's assumed she didn't choose the latter because the leader of the PCs was the candidate there (in Brown), but with that changed, I could see her switching over.

She might although to be fair unless the PCs screw up badly they should win both.  If you had to rank both ridings by winneability, Barrie-Innisfil is probably the PCs 25th strongest while Barrie-Oro Medonte-Springwater is probably around 35 so even if the PCs only got 40 seats provincewide they would probably win both.  They barely won Barrie-Oro Medonte-Springwater in 2015 and only won 33 seats in Ontario, so the Liberals do have a somewhat better chance there than Barrie-Innisfil, but they need the PCs to implode pretty badly to win either.  In all likelihood with how unpopular Wynne is, I suspect the PCs will probably win over 50 seats no matter what (note they still could lose since if the remaining 74 seats go either heavily NDP or Liberals which if they choose Doug Ford I could see happening, they might lose).
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mileslunn
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« Reply #11 on: February 15, 2018, 12:04:02 am »

With 27 of 111 polls reporting and BC Liberals in a solid lead, I think it's fair to say this will be a BC Liberal hold, final numbers should be interesting though. Also BC Conservatives didn't have a candidate last time whereas they do now so that could push BC Liberal vote down a little.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #12 on: February 15, 2018, 12:20:50 am »

CBC has now called this. No surprise as this is a very safe BC Liberal riding so a BC Liberal win expected. Final numbers will be interesting. At 45 out of 111 polls, NDP and Greens unchanged, BC Liberals down, but likely due to 7 percent voting BC Conservatives who didn't run a candidate in the last election.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #13 on: February 15, 2018, 01:17:14 am »

With only two polls left to report, looks like not much change from last May, with all the three major parties down slightly and the BC Conservatives who didn't run a candidate up, but doesn't seem to be particularly affecting anyone.  While some may assume all BC Conservatives would go BC Liberals, I am not so sure.  Yes both are on the political right but its silly to add up the sums of two parties and assume everyone who voted for one would go for the other if not available.  Either way this largely confirms the status quo and no suggestions of any party having momentum which is not surprising as its early days in the current government so I suspect not too many votes have shifted since last May.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #14 on: February 15, 2018, 01:20:53 am »

Final results are as follows:


Total Valid Votes

% of Popular Vote


Kelowna West
  Shelley Cook BC NDP 3,197 23.47%
  Kyle Michael Ernest Geronazzo Libertarian 110 0.81%
Ben Stewart BC Liberal Party 7,692 56.46%
Robert Stupka BC Green Party 1,727 12.68%
Mark Thompson Conservative 898 6.59%
111 of 111 ballot boxes reported 13,624 100%


2017 general election results


v ·
 t ·
 e
   British Columbia general election, 2017


Party

Candidate

Votes

%

±%

 Liberal Christy Clark 15,674 59.05 +0.98
 New Democratic Shelley Cook 6,672 25.14 -5.71
 Green Robert Mellalieu 3,628 13.67 
 Independent Brian Thiesen 570 2.15
Total valid votes 26,544 99.56
Total rejected ballots 117 0.44 –
Turnout 26,661
 Liberal hold Swing +3.34

So it is BC Liberals -2.59, BC NDP -1.67, BC Greens -0.99 so it seems little change and considering BC Conservatives didn't run in the last election it appears it hit each party a little bit but none by much.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #15 on: March 01, 2018, 10:32:33 pm »

Saskatchewan Party wins all three by landslides. While wins were not surprising size was so looks like Scott Moe getting a honeymoon but should probably diminish over time.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #16 on: March 07, 2018, 07:10:26 pm »

Calgary Elbow is a very wealthy riding and is where the Calgary “old money” lives so its much less likely to go NDP than a hipster place like Mountainview

I think though Calgary-Elbow could stay Alberta Party or would be winneable by the Liberals if they were stronger, but NDP is a bridge too far probably.  Ironically this was Ralph Klein's former riding.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #17 on: March 09, 2018, 03:06:09 pm »

Jason Kenney is also quite strong amongst the immigrant community so this might be one of the few cases where you get some federal Liberal UCP crossovers.  The immigrant community is fairly conservative, its more the fact there are still many xenophobes in the party why they don't vote for them.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #18 on: April 03, 2018, 05:12:21 pm »

Guys, Outremont was the best NDP riding in Quebec before Mulcair came in, and it was won by Valerie Plante last year. Why are we so sure it will go Liberal? It's exactly the kind of Quebec riding the NDP can do well in with Singh, as opposed to a more xenophobic nationalist seat.

Having said that, I still think it's a bad idea for him to run.

I agree Outremont is one of the more NDP friendly ridings in Quebec and if they cannot win there, they are in trouble.  Sure some like Guy Caron and Ruth Ellen Brousseau might hold their seats due to personal popularity, but Outremont is one of the few the NDP might still be competitive in even with their numbers in Quebec.  That being said probably too big a risk for Singh since if he loses he is done as leader and too close to the election to get a new one without some risks.

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord may not be a Liberal stronghold but expect the Liberals to hold this and Tories come in second, while BQ and NDP fight over third and fourth.  Raw numbers will be interesting though.  For the Liberals anything over 40% is good news while under 30% suggests their troubles have spread to Quebec.  For Tories over 20% is somewhat good news, and high 20s suggest they might have at reasonable shot at gaining elsewhere in the regions of Quebec.  Under 15% suggests outside of the few pockets like the Chaudiere-Appalaches they are irrelevant in Quebec.  For NDP and BQ, over 20% would be a good showing based on where things are now while under 10% would be a disaster for both. 
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mileslunn
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« Reply #19 on: April 03, 2018, 08:22:03 pm »

For Singh if he wants a seat, these are the ridings he should probably go far if he can get them to step aside.  All the others are too risky and there is always the risk of being seen as a carpbetbagger, think John Tory losing Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock in 2009 which is normally a very safe PC riding.

Vancouver East - This is probably THE safest NDP riding in the country but not sure Jenny Kwan would be interested in stepping aside but with an election 18 months away she could run there again in 2019.  Much like how Scott Brison stepped aside for Joe Clark, but then ran again in 2000.

New Westminster-Burnaby - Peter Julian has been there since 2004 and this is also under the current boundaries quite safe as most of the population is New Westminster which always votes NDP and the part of Burnaby it includes is the most NDP friendly part.

Hamilton Centre - Not sure David Christophson would want to step aside after the recent incident but a safe riding nonetheless and also Andrea Howarth's too provincially who is very popular here.

Windsor West - Brian Masse has been there since 2002 and Jagmeet Singh has seen Windsor roots so makes sense to run in one of the two Windsor ridings.  Liberals very unpopular south of London due to provincial counterparts who have imploded there and Tories have a ceiling of 30% in Windsor.  Essex is too risky as the Tories had a strong second so its difficult to know which way the Liberal vote would break due to decline never mind Tory supporters tend to be more motivated to show up which is crucial in by-elections that normally have low turnouts. 

Timmins-James Bay is a bad one as this is a Charlie Angus riding more than anything and there could be some backlash with him stepping aside even though the riding normally goes NDP.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #20 on: April 04, 2018, 03:48:55 pm »

I would also think internal polls would have to show a large lead as by-elections are notorious for poor turnouts too.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #21 on: April 25, 2018, 12:37:50 pm »

Nicola di Iorio is quitting so will be a by-election sometime later this year in St. Leonard-St. Michel.  A very safe Liberal seat so they should easily hold this. 
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mileslunn
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« Reply #22 on: May 02, 2018, 03:11:57 pm »

Gord Brown, MP for Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes has passed away.


http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/mp-gord-brown-heart-attack-1.4644739



Terribly sad news.  Seems like he was also well liked by many on the other side too.  Too young and way too sudden to go.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #23 on: May 03, 2018, 10:58:08 am »

Gord Brown's riding is a pretty safe Tory one although the Liberals did come within 7 points in 2015, but normally Tory wins both provincially and federally are by large margins so I suspect it will be a Conservative hold.  If the Conservatives do for some reason lose it, I imagine Andrew Scheer's leadership will come under scrutiny and he could face a caucus rebellion, but again very unlikely to happen.  My guess is the Tories will get over 50% (they got 47% in 2015 which is quite low for them in this riding).
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mileslunn
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« Reply #24 on: May 10, 2018, 10:26:40 am »

Kennedy Stewart, NDP MP for Burnaby South is making an announcement about possibly running for Mayor of Vancouver today. If he resigns his seat, it may open up a more friendly spot for Singh to run in than Outremont.

Still even Burnaby South is far from a safe one and if Singh loses there he is done as leader.  I could see the Liberals who almost won in 2015 picking it up and while not a Conservative riding a slight uptick for them and a perfect split could allow them to slip up the middle (you would need a perfect split for them to win there).
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