Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 15, 2019, 06:35:53 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Both Sides™)
  Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3) (search mode)
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)  (Read 26987 times)
lilTommy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,572


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

« on: January 10, 2018, 04:35:20 pm »

Melfort and Swift Current are pretty safe Saskatchewan Party seats so should tighten up, but would be a huge shocker if the NDP did win those.

Swift Current is an odd seat because it is an urban seat, and Brad Wall being the Premier has definitely had an effect on the election results there, as he’s actually from Swift Current, having spent his entire life there and having kept living there since he became Premier.

It is very much reminiscent of the Medicine Hat seat that the Alberta NDP won in 2015, where it is federally a strong federal Tory area, but because of its urban characteristics, a provincial win for a left-of-centre party is possible if they are sweeping the province. I don’t think the NDP would win a by-election there, but it could be close and end up being seriously contested in the 2020 general election.

It's only 15,000 people so pretty small, usually NDP only starts winning in cities over 30,000 like Moose Jaw and Prince Albert.  Also the southern parts of Saskatchewan near the US border have always tended to go for parties on the right no matter what.  In some ways their politics is more like North Dakota/Montana than the rest of Saskatchewan.  True the NDP will probably do a lot better in Swift Current and if they had two right wing parties they could win it much like Medicine Hat (I highly doubt the NDP will hold Medicine Hat in 2019, Lethbridge is the only city they might hold as they have the university).

In SASK, the NDP up until the 99 election (these were won in 95) held seats in the south, including Swift Current. Others included Weyburn-Big Muddy, Esetvan, Indian head-Milestone. Now that's approaching 20 years ago but in politics, that's relatively recent. But I agree, SASK is not the same place I think.
I don't see Melford or Kindersley really going NDP unless there is a huge shift, or a second strong conservative candidate running to split the vote. I can see Swift Current going NDP though, of any of them that would be the NDP target, for bragging rights alone... for the other two, it will be how much vote CAN the NDP win, which I think will indicate the overall trend in the province. If the NDP can pull in upwards of 30%, that's gov't territory if that becomes a provincial trend.
Logged
lilTommy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,572


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2018, 09:06:00 am »

Saskatchewan Party wins all three by landslides. While wins were not surprising size was so looks like Scott Moe getting a honeymoon but should probably diminish over time.

The only notable change was Swift Current, ex-Premier Brad Wall's old seat. the Sask Party's popular vote actually went down by almost 10 points (from 82% in the last election to 73%), with the NDP up by that same amount (from 15% to 24%).
Melford - About no change in the results from 2016
Kindsersley - SP blew up to 88% from 68% in 2016, but in 2016 there was the Independent former MLA who stood as a candidate and took about 17%. The NDP had a small bump from 7%-10%


 
Logged
lilTommy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,572


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

« Reply #2 on: March 06, 2018, 12:51:37 pm »

Brian Jean has resigned his Fort McMurray-Conklin seat. The by-election must be called within six months.

I also just realized that I never posted here when UCP MLA Don MacIntyre resigned his Innisfail-Sylvan Lake seat last month. He resigned after being charged with sexual interference involving a girl under 16.

So, two by-elections in UCP-held seats to be called in the near(-ish) future.

Any likelihood that these two seats have become competitive for anyone but UCP?
In 2015, the NDP sweep:
Fort McMurray-Conklin = PC - 22% WR - 43% (combined into UCP 65%) NDP - 30%
*Jean was party leader so there "might" have been a bump here? But looking at the results in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo's they are about the exact same, so perhaps not.

Innisfail-Sylvan Lake   = PC - 28% WR - 42% (Combined into UCP - 70%) NDP - 23%
Logged
lilTommy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,572


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2018, 11:18:40 am »

Kennedy Stewart, NDP MP for Burnaby South is making an announcement about possibly running for Mayor of Vancouver today. If he resigns his seat, it may open up a more friendly spot for Singh to run in than Outremont.

Still even Burnaby South is far from a safe one and if Singh loses there he is done as leader.  I could see the Liberals who almost won in 2015 picking it up and while not a Conservative riding a slight uptick for them and a perfect split could allow them to slip up the middle (you would need a perfect split for them to win there).

Even with the NDP polling about at 2015 or lower, they have been polling higher in BC. I don't see the Liberals winning in this climate, their overt pro-pipeline stance is not very popular from what I can see in the Metro area, and particularly Burnaby. The provincial BCNDP seem to be relatively popular, If the NDP nominate a strong candidate or even Singh as a seat filler till 2019 I see the NDP winning the seat.
Logged
lilTommy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,572


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

« Reply #4 on: June 19, 2018, 03:43:51 pm »

St.Boniface Manitoba by-election called for July 17th

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-byelection-st-boniface-1.4713049

I suspect this to be a battle between the NDP and Liberals; Liberal Leader Dougald Lamont is running in the former NDP Premiers seat. This would give the party official party status. The NDP have held St. Boniface since 1999.

Last Winnipeg poll was (april 2018):
PC - 39%
NDP - 34%
Libearl - 16%
https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/pallister-pcs-widen-lead-over-ndp/
Logged
lilTommy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,572


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

« Reply #5 on: July 13, 2018, 12:42:50 pm »

The Fort McMurray result isn't all that bad, but the Innisfail result is awful. I wonder what caused the NDP to tank so hard there.

I wonder if Notley's aggressive push and very public support for Pipelines effectively shorted up the NDP support?

Innisfail-Sylvan Lake - I don't think that's really a surprise is it? since 1997 the combined right vote, the "conservative" vote has been around/over 70%. whether it was PC+Social Credit or Alliance or WR. Breaking 80% is probably also due to this being a by-election and conservatives being more motivated then NDP/Liberals/AP/Green to even bother showing up
Logged
lilTommy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,572


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

« Reply #6 on: November 23, 2018, 08:13:37 am »

This will be interesting as Jagmeet Singh's former riding is now open.  Will he run there or stay with Burnaby South.  I think due to his ties to the community, Brampton East would be a better bet.

Jagmeet has basically poured himself into Burnaby South, moving now would look very very bad, it would look opportunistic and nothing more (i'm a NDP'er and think he should stay put in Burnaby). Tough call really, and part of me thinks the LPC is doing this on purpose (mildly cynical eh). IF he did move to run in Brampton East, the NDP has basically written off Burnaby South ever again, really, and this is still a winnable seat.
Just leave it NDP, find a strong candidate in Brampton (there is an NDP city Councillor, Dhillon, who previously ran for them, start casting the net) the city has quite the NDP grassroots and developing base thanks in part to Singh. The party holds 3 of the 5 seats provincially. Even in 2015, without Singh, they polled above the national vote % in Brampton East.   
Logged
lilTommy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,572


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

« Reply #7 on: December 03, 2018, 07:14:50 am »

There is chatter, that this was bait... the LPC was trying to bait Mr. Singh to run back "home", and it failed and this is the second now Liberal MP who looks messy about resigning-not-resigning. This is also starting to look very bad for Mark Holland who can't seem to do his job.

I don't agree with the idea he should have run in Brampton East AFTER committing to Burnaby. As mentioned above, jetting out of Burnaby South would have given the seat to the LPC, now it is competitive still but Jagmeet would have looked bad and that would have left a bad taste for those who would/could vote NDP. He showed class by sticking to the new seat, it's fitting with the narrative that he's not your typical politician, or some of the narrative around him. Yes Burnaby South was an opportunity to get a seat, but unlike most every other leader who has done this, Jagmeet committed and moved there and make this his home, not just a way into parliament.
Had Brampton East come vacant first, this would not be an issue. To me this has done nothing but help Jagmeet in Burnaby South (here's hoping)
Logged
lilTommy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,572


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

« Reply #8 on: December 31, 2018, 08:32:04 am »



Looks like Singh will have some serious competition in the by-election, then (so much for Trudeau potentially extending a "leader's courtesy" to Singh lol). She was the BC Liberal candidate in Burnaby-Deer Lake in the 2017 provincial election, losing to then-City Councillor Anne Kang of the BCNDP by a 48-36 margin. She's also a daycare operator & defeated a scientist for the nomination in a meeting where 123 people voted. I'm not sure why they'd pick somebody who ran for the BC Liberals, though, b/c that could serve to totally destroy her progressive credibility, esp. considering who she's going up against in Singh (though I could definitely see how any talk from Singh about childcare could have him walking into a bear trap).

In the end, I think the BCNDP releases a crapton of their staff & organizers to help & the federal party spends ridiculous amounts of money on the campaign to only see Singh win by 200 votes or so, but I also wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if the Liberals end up taking it, either, esp. if the riding feels that he doesn't make the cut b/c he's neither from nor has strong connections in the local community.

The choice of a more Centre-Right or pure Centrist candidate will help, if only marginally so, Mr Singh. She will be at every occasion targeted for her links to the arguably corrupt and very fiscally conservative BCLiberals. This could also be strategic for the LPC as well, they may be trying to attract some moderate conservative voters who would vote BCL provincially and CON federally. What bear trap around child care? The NDP ran and still supports a "a national, federally-funded child care program" I might be missing a BC specific issue?

I do think Singh looks better then he did when he first announced he'd run; he lives here with his family now and has been campaigning ferociously for months. He took the high ground and failed to fall for the dirty LPC trick of baiting Brampton East. The Greens not running a candidate makes Singh the only Left-Progressive option for voters in this traditional Left-Progressive seat.
While Burnaby South was close in 2015, it was not in 2011 (NDP vs CON), but before 2012 this was split between Burnaby-Douglas and Burnaby-New West, but NDP since 2004, and BNW even before that (Svend Robinson's old seat).
The BC government is still relatively popular, and I do not see voters using this by-election to punish the NDP (ala the 90s), the most recent Nov polling has the BCNDP only -2 points, but the BCLiberals -7 and the Greens -3.
As for Federal polling, the terrible late Nov polling that had the NDP around 14%, has rebounded slightly up to around 16-18%.
 
Logged
lilTommy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,572


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

« Reply #9 on: January 02, 2019, 08:28:53 am »



Looks like Singh will have some serious competition in the by-election, then (so much for Trudeau potentially extending a "leader's courtesy" to Singh lol). She was the BC Liberal candidate in Burnaby-Deer Lake in the 2017 provincial election, losing to then-City Councillor Anne Kang of the BCNDP by a 48-36 margin. She's also a daycare operator & defeated a scientist for the nomination in a meeting where 123 people voted. I'm not sure why they'd pick somebody who ran for the BC Liberals, though, b/c that could serve to totally destroy her progressive credibility, esp. considering who she's going up against in Singh (though I could definitely see how any talk from Singh about childcare could have him walking into a bear trap).

In the end, I think the BCNDP releases a crapton of their staff & organizers to help & the federal party spends ridiculous amounts of money on the campaign to only see Singh win by 200 votes or so, but I also wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if the Liberals end up taking it, either, esp. if the riding feels that he doesn't make the cut b/c he's neither from nor has strong connections in the local community.

The choice of a more Centre-Right or pure Centrist candidate will help, if only marginally so, Mr Singh. She will be at every occasion targeted for her links to the arguably corrupt and very fiscally conservative BCLiberals. This could also be strategic for the LPC as well, they may be trying to attract some moderate conservative voters who would vote BCL provincially and CON federally. What bear trap around child care? The NDP ran and still supports a "a national, federally-funded child care program" I might be missing a BC specific issue?

I do think Singh looks better then he did when he first announced he'd run; he lives here with his family now and has been campaigning ferociously for months. He took the high ground and failed to fall for the dirty LPC trick of baiting Brampton East. The Greens not running a candidate makes Singh the only Left-Progressive option for voters in this traditional Left-Progressive seat.
While Burnaby South was close in 2015, it was not in 2011 (NDP vs CON), but before 2012 this was split between Burnaby-Douglas and Burnaby-New West, but NDP since 2004, and BNW even before that (Svend Robinson's old seat).
The BC government is still relatively popular, and I do not see voters using this by-election to punish the NDP (ala the 90s), the most recent Nov polling has the BCNDP only -2 points, but the BCLiberals -7 and the Greens -3.
As for Federal polling, the terrible late Nov polling that had the NDP around 14%, has rebounded slightly up to around 16-18%.
 

Lol I meant that if Singh starts talking about childcare, he'll find himself debating against somebody who has direct experience w/ daycare centers & is presumably much more well-versed in childcare as a policy area than Singh. It would be electorally fatal optics for Singh if he were to be perceived as talking down to a woman who likely knows far more than he does about the topic.

AH, I get ya. Agreed... I don't think Childcare will be "the" issue, or really a issue... I don't even think she is talking much about it.
Singh will talk Housing, Pipelines, Opiod crisis/drugs more then anything I think.
Logged
lilTommy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,572


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

« Reply #10 on: January 15, 2019, 04:59:31 pm »

He now says Singh leads bigly but cautions about volatility.

Undecideds were the second largest group (27%); but Singh was still 12% ahead (29%) of the Liberals and Conservatives who were tied (17%)

some interesting demographics, decided/leaning only:
LPC candidate Wang leads among Cantonese by a good margin 34% vs Singh at 25% Shin (CON) 21%. But Singh is tied among Mandarin speakers with Shin, 27%, Wang 23%. What would be the reason for the divide? Please correct me but, Cantonese is mainly of HK correct? so perhaps wealthier?
It's English speakers that Singh dominates, 44% vs 25% for Wang, 20% Shin.
Logged
lilTommy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,572


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

« Reply #11 on: January 16, 2019, 08:14:08 am »

Looks like leftist former NDP MP Svend Robinson is returning to politics, running for the NDP against incumbent Liberal MP Terry Beech in Burnaby North-Seymour. Robinson is known for being vociferously anti-American and anti-Israel.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/svend-robinson-political-comeback-1.4979022

It will be a very tough race for Robinson, he represented the old Burnaby-Douglas from 1979-2004, Burnaby North-Seymour takes in about 60%+ of his old riding (if you know the area, everything north of Lougheed HWY) but the North Shore portion is mostly LPC/CON.

Most New Democrats are very excited about this, Svend is a known left-wing member of the party who has been a leader in fighting for Equality rights, Environmental issues before they were "cool" or even widely held (first openly gay MP in Canada) much like Nikki Ashton in terms of being a Democratic Socialist for the most part. Robinson is not Anti-American, he's anti-capitalist, there is a big distinction. He like most NDP members are not anti-Israel but rather anti-Israeli occupation (not against the state but against some of the states actions and occupations of Palestinian territories) I think it's unfair to slap these labels, when there not totally accurate.
Logged
lilTommy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,572


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

« Reply #12 on: January 16, 2019, 08:28:30 am »

Karen Wang, the Liberal candidate in Burnaby-South is receiving backlash for some racial comments about Singh on WeChat.

https://www.thestar.com/vancouver/2019/01/15/as-ndp-leader-jagmeet-singh-campaigns-in-burnaby-south-a-liberal-candidate-brings-race-into-the-byelection.html

Despite the interview hiccup, it seems quite possible that Singh runs away with this race in the end. Mainstreet also usually underestimates NDP support quite a bit too, but we'll see.

That's really disappointing to see, that to me it's a sign of desperation at worst and really bad optics of very targeted campaigning at best. An interesting article on the South Asian - Chinese rivalry though.

I think it's actually amazing that the three main parties are all running POC candidates; Chinese, Sikh and Korean.
I think you will see many of the NDPs Asian/local area "stars" come out here as well, Jenny Kwan MP has been helping Singh campaign, and word is that Kennedy Stewart will likely come into the riding as well.
Logged
lilTommy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,572


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

« Reply #13 on: January 16, 2019, 01:11:04 pm »


Liberals have till 2/6/19 to nominate a candidate from what I'm reading, so they have some time to get their act together IF they want to run a new candidate.
Logged
lilTommy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,572


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

« Reply #14 on: January 21, 2019, 07:24:44 am »



A potentially much stronger candidate than Karen Wang.  Although he was never appointed to cabinet, he rose to deputy speaker and lost by just less than 10% in 2017.  The majority of eligible voters in the Burnaby North federal riding also seem to be in what was his Burnaby North provincial riding, as opposed to the Burnaby-Deer Lake riding that Karen Wang ran in in 2017.

My mistake, this federal riding is Burnaby South.  I don't know if Lee represented any part of this federal riding or if he even lives in the federal riding.  However, he obviously is a long time resident of the city of Burnaby.

A significant of provincial North is in federal South. In fact the borders are simple federally. Burbaby South is all of Burnaby south of the Lougheed Highway.

To be more specific, looks like less then half of Burnaby North (Prov.) is in the Fed. Burnaby South; in the 2017 Provincial election the BCLiberals won about 6 polls of the 19 or 20 I counted that are in Burnaby South (NDP won the rest). Even in the 2013 Prov election the BCLIberals (with Lee) won 14 of the 26 polls (more polls in 2013). Unfortunately for Lee, the bulk of strong BCLiberal support was north of Lougheed HWY. Could probably be easy enough for someone who knows, to transpose the results.

I think Lee is a much stronger candidate for namesake and experience, but that will be both a positive and negative. As mentioned the BCLiberals are not Progressive, in particular fiscally so, they are more conservative in most aspects then the LPC. I agree the LPC will likely lose some of the more progressive soft Liberal vote to the NDP, but I think the selection of Lee will retain or attract moderate fiscally conservative Liberals and moderate Conservatives. This whole mess does not look good on the LPC, but there is still a month to go, so will fade and become a Lee-Singh battle.
   
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC