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  Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)  (Read 28417 times)
Hatman 🍁
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« on: January 09, 2018, 02:12:31 pm »
« edited: October 28, 2018, 02:11:45 pm by Hatman 🍁 »

Nothing scheduled so far, but the following seats are vacant:

Federal:
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord,QC
(Outremont, QC will be vacated later this year)

Provincial:
Kindersley, SK
Melfort, SK
Kelowna West, BC
(Swift Current, SK will be vacated soon)

No major municipal by-elections on the horizon that I know of.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1 on: January 09, 2018, 08:27:57 pm »

On Elections Saskatchewan's website, they've stated that they are also prepping for by-elections in Swift Current and Melfort.

D'oh!

Swift Current isn't vacant yet, as Brad Wall is still Premier, but he will resign after the SP leadership race.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2018, 01:06:09 pm »

Kelowna West by-election will be February 14.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #3 on: January 18, 2018, 09:46:52 pm »

Will be a real snoozer as an easy BC Liberal win.  That being said smart choice in date by Horgan since if Diane Watts wins the BC Liberal leadership race, it will be too late to change candidates so she will have to ask someone else to step aside for her thus giving the NDP more leeway.  Had it been called for March, there would be enough time for Ben Stewart to step down as BC Liberal candidate and let Diane Watts run here.  Off course if any of the other four (note Sam Sullivan I am not including as he has zero chance of winning and I say this as someone who lives in his riding) this will be a non-issue as all the others already have seats.

3.Langley Township is not quite the neighboring riding of the Surrey area, but it's not far away either


His riding does in fact border Surrey.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #4 on: January 24, 2018, 01:59:15 pm »

Jamie Baillie has resigned his seat in Cumberland South, as well as the leadership of the Nova Scotia Tories.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #5 on: January 24, 2018, 03:03:27 pm »
« Edited: January 24, 2018, 03:05:46 pm by 🍁 Hatman »

Cumberland South was until recently a PC stronghold where they usually topped 60% and sometimes even 70%, but in recent elections it has become a lot more competitive so a Liberal pick up is definitely possible especially if they have a strong candidate.  Could also stay PC and in fact the next PC leader is not part of the caucus might be a good riding to run in.

Before 1993, the riding was split in two (Cumberland West and Cumberland Centre). Cumberland Centre voted Liberal continuously from 1974 to 1993. Cumberland Centre included Springhill, a former coal mining town (famous for the Springhill mining disaster) which still votes Liberal to this day.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #6 on: January 24, 2018, 03:14:58 pm »
« Edited: January 24, 2018, 03:24:33 pm by 🍁 Hatman »

Springhill is an interesting place, it is the largest community in the riding, and yet it is no longer an incorporated community, as it was forced to be absorbed by the county in 2015 due to financial constraints. The town has been in steep decline since the last coal mines closed in the 1970s. The town's population peaked in 1956 at 7K, but now has just 3000 people.

Springhill's decline is the reason why the two south Cumberland ridings had to merge in 1993.

Interestingly, the riding's second largest community, Parrsboro also de-incoporated recently, in 2016. 
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #7 on: January 26, 2018, 09:49:27 am »

Jamie Baillie has resigned his seat due to his sexual harassment allegations, so we should see a byelection in Cumberland South at some point. Premier McNeil said he won't  wait very long to call it. The seat us historically Tory, but the last result was pretty close for a leader's seat. The Liberals have a decent shot at picking it up.

Yup. (See page 1 of this thread)
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #8 on: February 20, 2018, 06:55:40 pm »

Former Manitoba premier Greg Selinger will be stepping down as MLA of St Boniface March 7th.



http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/greg-selinger-resign-1.4543354


I wonder if the Liberals will target it?
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #9 on: March 02, 2018, 10:13:58 am »

Results:

Kindersley
Ken Francis (SP): 88.15% (+20.20)
Travis Herbert (NDP): 9.90% (+2.51)
Yvonne Potter-Pihach (Grn): 1.95%
2 party Swing: 8.84% (NDP to SP)
Turnout: 32.42% (-27.32)

Melfort
Todd Goudy (SP): 78.68% (+1.59)
Lorne Schroeder (NDP): 19.47% (+0.04)
Shawn Setyo (Grn): 1.85% (+0.44)
2 party Swing: 0.78% (NDP to SP)
Turnout: 34.22% (-25.01)

Swift Current
Everett Hindley (SP): 73.53% (-8.91)
Stefan Rumpel (NDP): 24.21% (+9.11)
Maria Rose Lewans (Grn): 1.30% (-0.09)
Aidan Roy (Lib): 0.95% (-0.10)
2 party Swing: 9.01% (SP to NDP)
Turnout: 42.12% (-18.43)

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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #10 on: March 06, 2018, 03:39:26 pm »

Any seat the NDP did not win in 2015 is certainly not going to be won by them in any by-election.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #11 on: March 07, 2018, 09:40:15 am »

Any seat the NDP did not win in 2015 is certainly not going to be won by them in any by-election.

The only possible exception to that would be if there was a byelelction in Calgary Mountainview which is currently the sole Liberal seat in Alberta. It is actually demographically the best riding in Calgary for the NDP and is very much the Calgary equivalent of Edmonton Strathcona...had it not been for David Swann’s peronal appeal it would likely have gone NDP by a very wide margin in 2015

OK sure, and I suppose they would have a shot at Calgary-Elbow too.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #12 on: March 07, 2018, 01:27:36 pm »

Calgary Elbow is a very wealthy riding and is where the Calgary “old money” lives so its much less likely to go NDP than a hipster place like Mountainview

I know, I was just trying to think of another riding they could hypothetically win.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #13 on: March 08, 2018, 09:57:55 am »

Calgary Elbow is a very wealthy riding and is where the Calgary “old money” lives so its much less likely to go NDP than a hipster place like Mountainview

I think though Calgary-Elbow could stay Alberta Party or would be winneable by the Liberals if they were stronger, but NDP is a bridge too far probably.  Ironically this was Ralph Klein's former riding.

I'm not suggesting it is likely, I'm just saying it is more likely than any currently UCP-held riding.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #14 on: March 09, 2018, 01:29:19 pm »
« Edited: March 09, 2018, 01:54:45 pm by 🍁 Hatman »

The only other current UCP seat that i could see the NDP contending in someday would be Calgary-Greenway. It is the most heavily immigrant/visible minority riding in the city and is the core of the federal Calgary-Skyview seat that went Liberal in 2015. had it not been for a very popular PC incumbent running there in 2015 and the NDP running a WASP paper candidate, it almost certainly would have gone NDP in 2015

Well maybe, but they did blow their chance in a by-election there in 2016 (finishing 4th!), but part of that was due to a strong Liberal candidacy.

(Also a point of contention: Most of Calgary-Greenway is actually in the Calgary Forest Lawn federal riding, but looks to be an area of the riding that is more Liberal friendly)

ALSO, Calgary-Greenway (which is an abomination of a riding in terms of its shape), is going to be rightfully cut up for the next election.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #15 on: April 03, 2018, 05:06:18 pm »

Guys, Outremont was the best NDP riding in Quebec before Mulcair came in, and it was won by Valerie Plante last year. Why are we so sure it will go Liberal? It's exactly the kind of Quebec riding the NDP can do well in with Singh, as opposed to a more xenophobic nationalist seat.

Having said that, I still think it's a bad idea for him to run.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #16 on: April 04, 2018, 03:03:11 pm »

Guys, Outremont was the best NDP riding in Quebec before Mulcair came in, and it was won by Valerie Plante last year. Why are we so sure it will go Liberal? It's exactly the kind of Quebec riding the NDP can do well in with Singh, as opposed to a more xenophobic nationalist seat.

Having said that, I still think it's a bad idea for him to run.

Mulcair only won it by 10% in 2015. The Liberals are up 10% in Quebec, the NDP is down and I'd expect Mulcair to have more pull in the riding than Singh. That's about it.

The Liberals probably have the advantage yes, but it's not a safe Liberal seat anymore.

Unless he is suicidal, Singh won't run unless internal polling suggests he would win anyways, so it's a moot point.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #17 on: May 05, 2018, 02:39:11 pm »

^^^Both of these will be UCP landslides, right?

yup
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #18 on: May 06, 2018, 01:52:17 pm »

Huh. The new Reform Party's logo is essential the Democrats' logo but with an "R" instead of a D, and the shades of blue are different:



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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #19 on: June 10, 2018, 07:41:08 pm »

Looks like Nanaimo MLA Leonard Krog may resign to run for mayor of the city. If the NDP loses the ensuing by-election, the government would fall Undecided
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #20 on: June 11, 2018, 10:41:48 am »

Speaking of the Vancouver mayoral race, aren't there like 4 left wing candidates right now? jfc. Why don't we just hand the NPA the mayoralty on a silver platter.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #21 on: June 13, 2018, 02:35:59 pm »

Shocked

Usual caveats about riding polling [especially by-election riding polls] of course, but wow.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #22 on: June 13, 2018, 02:38:50 pm »

if the Conservatives do pick it up, it means that the riding will have voted for four different parties in four straight elections. Has that ever happened before?
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #23 on: June 14, 2018, 03:44:09 pm »

Provincial by-elections called for July 12 in Fort McMurray-Conklin and Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Alberta
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #24 on: June 18, 2018, 08:01:09 pm »

NDP is in fifth Sad
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