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November 13, 2019, 10:40:22 am
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  Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)  (Read 30574 times)
DC Al Fine
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« on: January 26, 2018, 08:13:55 am »

Jamie Baillie has resigned his seat due to his sexual harassment allegations, so we should see a byelection in Cumberland South at some point. Premier McNeil said he won't  wait very long to call it. The seat us historically Tory, but the last result was pretty close for a leader's seat. The Liberals have a decent shot at picking it up.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2018, 10:22:10 am »

Cumberland South was until recently a PC stronghold where they usually topped 60% and sometimes even 70%, but in recent elections it has become a lot more competitive so a Liberal pick up is definitely possible especially if they have a strong candidate.  Could also stay PC and in fact the next PC leader is not part of the caucus might be a good riding to run in.

I don't think the timeline will work out. McNeil is likely to call a byelection soon and the Tories haven't even set the rules for the leadership election yet. Thankfully for the Tories, the only serious potential non-caucus candidate is Cecil Clarke, who would have no problem winning a byelection in Cape Breton.

Jamie Baillie has resigned his seat due to his sexual harassment allegations, so we should see a byelection in Cumberland South at some point. Premier McNeil said he won't  wait very long to call it. The seat us historically Tory, but the last result was pretty close for a leader's seat. The Liberals have a decent shot at picking it up.

Yup. (See page 1 of this thread)

D'oh!
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #2 on: April 03, 2018, 02:55:45 pm »

Singh visited Outremont and the story says he is open to running to replace Mulcair when he leaves. They are studying the pros and cons.   

http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2018/04/03/jagmeet-singh-songe-a-se-presenter-au-quebec

I guess it's normal to try to see if he could win but I imagine the Liberals would campaign even harder to win it back since it benefits them to have the NDP not too strong.

Seems like a bad idea to me. Outremont is primed for a Liberal pick up between the fact that it is more a Mulcair seat than an NDP one and the large Liberal gain in the province since 2015.

No need for the leader to take an embarassing loss before the election.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #3 on: April 04, 2018, 05:03:06 am »
« Edited: April 04, 2018, 06:54:54 am by DC Al Fine »

Guys, Outremont was the best NDP riding in Quebec before Mulcair came in, and it was won by Valerie Plante last year. Why are we so sure it will go Liberal? It's exactly the kind of Quebec riding the NDP can do well in with Singh, as opposed to a more xenophobic nationalist seat.

Having said that, I still think it's a bad idea for him to run.

Mulcair only won it by 10% in 2015. The Liberals are up 10% in Quebec, the NDP is down and I'd expect Mulcair to have more pull in the riding than Singh. That's about it.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2018, 10:48:40 am »

Should be a Tory hold I imagine.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #5 on: May 10, 2018, 07:39:36 am »

Kennedy Stewart, NDP MP for Burnaby South is making an announcement about possibly running for Mayor of Vancouver today. If he resigns his seat, it may open up a more friendly spot for Singh to run in than Outremont.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #6 on: May 17, 2018, 11:42:31 am »


The Tory candidate's first name is Tory Smiley
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #7 on: June 13, 2018, 03:28:02 pm »

if the Conservatives do pick it up, it means that the riding will have voted for four different parties in four straight elections. Has that ever happened before?

Maybe somewhere out west in the 20's and 30's?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #8 on: June 13, 2018, 03:50:20 pm »

I found two

Saskatoon City
1930: Tory
1935: Liberal
1940: United Reform (communist front)
1945: CCF

Kindersley
1930: Progressive
1935: Social Credit
1940: Liberal
1945: CCF
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #9 on: June 13, 2018, 04:18:32 pm »

if the Conservatives do pick it up, it means that the riding will have voted for four different parties in four straight elections. Has that ever happened before?

The federal riding of Louis-Hébert in the last four elections.
2006 Conservative
2008 Bloc Québécois
2011 NDP
2015 Liberal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis-H%C3%A9bert_(electoral_district)



Oh duh. Can't believe I missed that one
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #10 on: June 15, 2018, 01:42:24 pm »

Colour me skeptical.

If the Greens get nothing and the NDP retain all of the 2015 progressive vote share, they would still need at least a swing 16% swing from old Tory and Wildrose shares. I don't really see Fort Mac as a good candidate to be Alberta's Tobique-Mactaquac.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #11 on: June 19, 2018, 06:39:28 am »

There is a by-election in Cumberland South today to replace former PC leader Jamie Baillie who resigned in a #metoo incident.

The seat has a long Tory history, but the Liberals kept it reasonably close in 2013 and 2017 despite it being held by a leader. Unfortunately I don't know much about the candidates  and that's kind of a big deal in a rural Maritime by-election, so I'll just call it a 50/50 tossup.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #12 on: June 19, 2018, 07:51:45 pm »

The Tory candidate's first name is Tory. Hehe
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #13 on: June 20, 2018, 07:42:26 am »

About an 8% swing from Liberal to Tory.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #14 on: July 12, 2018, 06:51:54 pm »

Oh, I forgot to mention this earlier, but Elections Alberta has released the advance vote totals for both ridings. In Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, it's essentially unchanged from the 2015 election at around 2,850, while in Fort McMurray-Conklin, it's up substantially from 2015, at around 1,100 compared to 700.

Also, an obligatory roundup on candidate dirt/mudslinging:

In Fort McMurray-Conklin, Goodridge has been painted as an outsider due to her having run in Grande Prairie in 2015, and having not lived in Fort McMurray for a substantial period of time while doing political work in Edmonton and Ottawa. Goodridge has also drawn flak from indigenous leaders, for a comment suggesting that a potential low voter turnout may allow NDP "special interests" to swing the election. Meanwhile, Alberta Party candidate Sid Fayad was forced to apologize after a 5-year old Facebook post surfaced where he used the n-word in a comment.

In Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, NDP candidate Nicole Mooney, who is a Catholic school teacher, drew some unwanted attention when it emerged that she had taken students to the 2014 March for Life, and was quoted as saying "we want to promote among our kids the message that abortion is wrong and that life begins at conception." Meanwhile, it also emerged that UCP candidate Devin Dreeshen spent much of 2016 in the US campaigning for Donald Trump, who has of course now enacted tariffs that are negatively impacting Canadian workers.

I get the UCP guy even if he was dumb to do it, but how on earth does someone that pro-life get it in their head to run for the NDP?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #15 on: July 19, 2018, 05:33:11 am »


Look, not terrible poll divisions!
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #16 on: August 09, 2018, 07:02:24 am »


Risky move, that isn't exactly a super safe seat. You'd think he'd run in a heavily Sikh seat in Brampton or Surrey.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #17 on: September 02, 2018, 10:56:18 am »

Windsor Lake, NL by-election is called for Sept 20. The new PC leader, Ches Crosbie will be contesting.

While the Liberals won it easily in 2015, it has been a bit of a bellwether in the past. It was also the riding of former Premier Kathy Dunderdale.

MHAs:

Pleasantville
Jerome W. Dinn, PC (1975-1989)
Walter Noel, Liberal (1989-1996)

Virginia Waters
Walter Noel, Liberal (1996-2003)
Kathy Dunderdale, PC (2003-2014)
Cathy Bennett, Liberal (2014-2015)

Windsor Lake
Cathy Bennett, Liberal (2015-2018)

That's kind of ballsy trying to enter the legislature by trying to pick off a seat rather than getting an incumbent in a safe seat to resign.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #18 on: September 15, 2018, 06:21:05 am »

That's interesting. When's the last time the Grits or Tories gave an NDP leader a pass?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #19 on: October 04, 2018, 10:42:07 am »

Couillard has disclaimed his seat, so Roberval by-election next year.

Wonder how that will go.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #20 on: November 16, 2018, 05:27:20 pm »

Former NS Health Minister and failed NDP leadership candidate Dave Wilson has resigned his Sackville-Cobequid seat.

Should be an easy NDP hold.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #21 on: November 16, 2018, 09:25:48 pm »

One of the few actual 'safe NDP' seats in Atlantic Canada.

Yup. Bluecollar working class suburb. Feels quite a bit like the Hamilton or Windsor of the Maritimes to be honest.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #22 on: November 21, 2018, 02:47:28 pm »

I guess I can kind of see it. The Liberals are up in Quebec, so if they take some votes from the Bloc/NDP, and the 2018 Tory vote splits perfectly between Bernier and the Tories, I guess the Liberals could squeak through in a Gatineau-2008 type result.

Still think Bernier wins re-election though.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #23 on: November 23, 2018, 08:34:39 am »

This will be interesting as Jagmeet Singh's former riding is now open.  Will he run there or stay with Burnaby South.  I think due to his ties to the community, Brampton East would be a better bet.

Jagmeet has basically poured himself into Burnaby South, moving now would look very very bad, it would look opportunistic and nothing more (i'm a NDP'er and think he should stay put in Burnaby). Tough call really, and part of me thinks the LPC is doing this on purpose (mildly cynical eh). IF he did move to run in Brampton East, the NDP has basically written off Burnaby South ever again, really, and this is still a winnable seat.
Just leave it NDP, find a strong candidate in Brampton (there is an NDP city Councillor, Dhillon, who previously ran for them, start casting the net) the city has quite the NDP grassroots and developing base thanks in part to Singh. The party holds 3 of the 5 seats provincially. Even in 2015, without Singh, they polled above the national vote % in Brampton East.   

Tough call. He very well could go down in Burnaby, and presumably he'd win Brampton East in a landslide. You're right, it would be crazy opportunistic though.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #24 on: November 26, 2018, 11:32:57 am »

Raj Grewal resigned to deal with a gambling problem, so Brampton East being freed up is just a weird coincidence, not the Liberals playing House of Cards style 4D chess.
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