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Author Topic: Comparison of the 2016 Referendum and 2017 GE (MAPS)  (Read 444 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« on: January 10, 2018, 06:51:18 pm »



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Ive not seen this done elsewhere and it seemed like an obvious and important! thing to map, so here we go. I strongly suspect that the first map is the most indicative, but it seemed remiss to not do the second as well. There are issues with using model data for something like this, but we can only ever work with the tools that we have at our disposal.
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A Strange Reflection
Antonio V
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« Reply #1 on: January 10, 2018, 07:27:03 pm »

Great work, but I can't help thinking that a two-dimensional map (of the kind Homelycooking did a few times) would be more suited for this topic. I'd like to be able to concurrently see Labour/Leave, Labour/Remain, Tory/Leave and Tory/Remain areas.
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"In the end, the world we live in is in darkness."
"That's why... we seek the light."

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mileslunn
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« Reply #2 on: January 10, 2018, 09:59:28 pm »

I think one that might be more indicative is leave vs. swing towards the Tories and/or Remain vs. swing towards Labour as a lot of places in Britain have a strong tradition of voting a certain way no matter what, but it seemed the areas that swung in favour of the Tories were generally areas that voted heavily to leave while the more heavily it voted remain the bigger the swing was towards Labour regardless of whom actually won.  I think 60% leave was sort of the tipping point with constituencies where the leave vote exceeded 60% generally saw a swung in favour of the Tories while those less than 60% saw one towards Labour (this off course only in England and Wales, not in Scotland which is a whole different political animal).  The reason it was 60% instead of 52% as nationally there was a swing towards Labour (up 9.7% as opposed to Tories up 5.5%).
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #3 on: January 12, 2018, 07:21:55 pm »

What these maps primarily show is that there is no route to a Labour Majority by appealing solely to Remain voters - and the Remain vote is (outside London) not the core of the Labour party - not remotely.
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As I have noted before 'paradigm shift' is an anagram of 'grasp dim faith'
mileslunn
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« Reply #4 on: January 12, 2018, 08:24:49 pm »

What these maps primarily show is that there is no route to a Labour Majority by appealing solely to Remain voters - and the Remain vote is (outside London) not the core of the Labour party - not remotely.

Generally agree.  I actually don't think there are enough winneable seats in England for a Labour majority.  They need 64 additional seats and in England and Wales, I can easily find 30, maybe 40, but 50 is stretching it.  So to get a majority, they need Scotland to swing behind them as prior to 2015 Scotland usually went Labour so if the Central Belt goes solidly Labour then a majority becomes plausible but without that cannot see it happen.  And those areas did vote heavily remain, but in reality all parties are hurt by the divisions.

Tories:  Largely benefit from Brexit, but could cost them in traditional safe seats in London which voted heavily remain.  London Commuter belt also largely voted remain but the Tories have a large enough cushion there it's not likely to cost them many seats and many of the most competitive ones in the London Commuter belt were more working class and voted leave.

Labour:  The younger voters who helped them get as far as they did voted heavily remain as well as in London where they had strongest swings.  Scotland where they need to make big gains to get a majority also voted remain.  However the industrial North voted heavily to leave and with strong Tory swings in some constituencies, taking a strong remain stance could cost them some normally safe traditional seats.  Constituencies like Copeland, Derbyshire Northeast, Stoke on Trent South, Mansfield, and Walsall North are examples of traditional Labour leave they lost while Bishop Auckland, Barrow in Furness, Stoke on Trent North, Newcastle under Lyme, Dudley North, Basseltaw, Ashfield, Penistone and Stocksbridge are all examples of traditionally safe Labour seats where the Tories had strong second place showings and could flip next time around.

Liberal Democrats:  It might seem obvious for them to be the champions of the EU, but lets remember their traditional strength in England was in Cornwall, Devon, and Somerset and those areas all voted to leave while in university towns like Cambridge, there is still a lot of anger over the coalition and their tripling tuition fees so I doubt being pro-remain will be enough for them to win back the student vote.  Labour's promise of free tuition is probably a stronger motivation for students to vote than staying in the EU is.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #5 on: January 13, 2018, 07:08:11 am »

The South coast, Devon and Cornwall stick out imo. Particularly in light of how they mostly swung quite heavily towards Labour last year
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