Rank the 7 California Clinton-Republican districts by likelihood to flip
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  Rank the 7 California Clinton-Republican districts by likelihood to flip		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Rank the 7 California Clinton-Republican districts by likelihood to flip  (Read 754 times)
King Lear
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« on: January 16, 2018, 05:02:27 AM »
If Democrats are going to flip the House their going to have to flip all 7 Clinton-Republican districts in California for this reason I decided to rank them from most to least likely to flip.
1) CA-49
2) CA-10
3) CA-25
4) CA-39
5) CA-21
6) CA-45
7) CA-48
In my opinion, CA-49, CA-10, and CA-25, will flip even if Democrats aren’t having a good night, because all three of these districts saw close races in 2016 (their incumbents were reelected by single digit margins). On the other hand, CA-39, CA-21, CA-45, and CA-48 will only flip if Democrats are flipping the House (it’s very likely one of these would be the tipping-point district), because unlike the other three, these four districts saw their incumbents win reelection by double-digit margins in 2016, thus showing a greater tendency of ballot-splitting in these districts compared to the other ones.
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Chief Justice Keef
etr906
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« Reply #1 on: January 16, 2018, 08:27:37 AM »
1. CA-49
2. CA-10
3. CA-39
4. CA-25
5. CA-48
6. CA-45
7. CA-21

All will flip, though.
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PAK Man
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« Reply #2 on: January 16, 2018, 12:23:28 PM »
1. CA-49
2. CA-10
3. CA-48
4. CA-39
5. CA-25
6. CA-45
7. CA-21
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Strudelcutie4427
Singletxguyforfun
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« Reply #3 on: January 16, 2018, 12:31:18 PM »
49
10
25
39
21
48
45
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #4 on: January 16, 2018, 02:11:48 PM »
CA-49
CA-39
CA-25
CA-10
CA-48
CA-45
CA-21

CA-21 could easilg jump to most likely if Dems get a candidate not named Emilio Huerta.
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Pericles
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« Reply #5 on: January 16, 2018, 02:49:34 PM »
1) CA-49
2) CA-39
3) CA-10
4) CA-25
5) CA-21
6) CA-48
7) CA-45
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #6 on: January 16, 2018, 04:55:01 PM »
CA 49
CA 39

CA 48
CA 10
CA 25

CA 21
CA 45
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Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #7 on: January 16, 2018, 05:00:38 PM »

You've gotta update your map!
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #8 on: January 16, 2018, 05:05:37 PM »

My computer with the map on it had its battery fried...new replacement battery arriving on Wednesday. Should probably put that there Sad
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9 on: January 16, 2018, 07:27:34 PM »

I agree with this.  As of today, I think they flip everything up to Rohrabacher's CA-48, and CA-45 is 50/50.

Valadao either loses now or becomes the Republican answer to Collin Peterson in the 2020's and holds the seat until retirement even if it's D+12 PVI by then.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #10 on: January 16, 2018, 07:54:20 PM »
CA-49
CA-10
CA-25
CA-39
CA-21
CA-48
CA-45
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