King Lear's concern trolling megathread

[King Lear]

Since I’ve heard many talk about how Democrats are practically guaranteed to flip the House and Senate (this can happen under the right circumstances, but is definitely not guaranteed), I would like to ask people to post their absolute best case scenario for Republicans this year if everything goes right for them.

[Xing]

Democrats are not "guaranteed" to flip the House and Senate, and I don't think anyone on this site predicting that they will is doing so with such certainty.

As for the best case scenario for Republicans, I suppose it's plausible that Trump could magically become incredibly popular, the Democrats could run on taking away rights from white men, which would result in massive gains for them. However, if we're being realistic and assume that Trump will remain at least somewhat unpopular (maybe his approval rating will improve a bit) and that there aren't any enormous game changers, I'd guess that about R+7 in the Senate is their ceiling, and in the House, maybe they break even or gain a couple of seats.

[UncleSam]

Best case scenario is probably R+6 in senate and D+5 in the house. I actually don't think there's a very wide range of possible outcomes actually, in individual races yes but on a macro level I think a lot of what's going to impact most people is baked in at this point.

[Brittain33]

King Lear, have you given any thought as to how the 2018 Senate races might turn out for Republicans?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

They hold Arizona, pick up MT, IN, and MO, and lose only about 15 seats in the house.

[fluffypanther19]

Can you just make one giant King Lear 2018 megathread since you like to hear yourself repeat the same thing over and over again?

I could had sworn that we had discussed this before

[MT Treasurer]

Senate: D+2 (Republicans win ND and hold NV, but lose AZ, TN and TX)
House: D+35

Right? Maybe also something delusional/crazy like this...

Senate: R+5 (Republicans lose NV, but pick up MO, IN, WV, OH, MT and one other state)
House: D+15

Though obviously that would require a massive R wave, which I know is pure wishful thinking.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Senate: D+2 (Republicans win ND and hold NV, but lose AZ, TN and TX)
House: D+35

Right? Maybe also something delusional/crazy like this...

Senate: R+5 (Republicans lose NV, but pick up MO, IN, WV, OH, MT and one other state)
House: D+15

Though obviously that would require a massive R wave, which I know is pure wishful thinking.

Okay you're going to need to explain how Republicans somehow keep NV but lose TX. The only way this could be possible is if Rosen diddles some kids fiddles.

[UncleSam]

Senate: D+2 (Republicans win ND and hold NV, but lose AZ, TN and TX)
House: D+35

Right? Maybe also something delusional/crazy like this...

Senate: R+5 (Republicans lose NV, but pick up MO, IN, WV, OH, MT and one other state)
House: D+15

Though obviously that would require a massive R wave, which I know is pure wishful thinking.

Okay you're going to need to explain how Republicans somehow keep NV but lose TX. The only way this could be possible is if Rosen diddles some kids fiddles.

The first one was a meme of some sort I'm pretty sure.

I think the bottom of the post is the real best case. IMO Dems won't gain 15 in the house if Rs pick up five in the senate, but it's possible.

[MT Treasurer]

The first one was a meme of some sort I'm pretty sure.

I think the bottom of the post is the real best case. IMO Dems won't gain 15 in the house if Rs pick up five in the senate, but it's possible.

Yeah, obviously the second part of that post was my serious answer. I think there are enough House seats that will flip even in a relatively neutral year, but I'm not yet convinced that flipping 5 seats in the Senate would be that difficult (it wouldn't happen if the election were held today, though). All I'm saying is that this is what I believe their best-case scenario would look like, it's not an actual prediction.

If the election were held today, Dems would likely flip the House (D+30-35) and the Senate would be something like 51R/49D.

[Orser67]

D+10 in the House. This would mean Democrats are winning the popular vote by a few points nationally, which seems like the Republican best-case scenario to me. It would probably be closer to D+5 if not for Republican retirements in key swing seats.

R+6 in the Senate, with Republicans picking up all or most of the deep red states (WV, ND, MO, IN, MT) and winning 1-2 of the swing states. This would be astonishing break with historical precedent, but I can't rule out the possibility of partisanship overriding incumbency and mid-term disaffection.

D+3 in the gubernatorial races. I think Democrats are the huge favorite in NM, and also have advantages in IL, ME, NV, and MI even in a 50/50 year. With all of the other seats Republicans are defending, I think even in the  Republican best-case scenario Democrats would still net three seats.

[IceSpear]

Senate: D+2 (Republicans win ND and hold NV, but lose AZ, TN and TX)
House: D+35

Right? Maybe also something delusional/crazy like this...

Senate: R+5 (Republicans lose NV, but pick up MO, IN, WV, OH, MT and one other state)
House: D+15

Though obviously that would require a massive R wave, which I know is pure wishful thinking.

Okay you're going to need to explain how Republicans somehow keep NV but lose TX. The only way this could be possible is if Rosen diddles some kids fiddles.

Heller is the incumbent and won against strong candidate Shelley Berkley even though Obama won NV by 6, also it swung to Trump and Jacky Rosen is a weak candidate.

[Virginiá]

Note: For now on, King Lear's prediction threads and posts (where possible) will be merged here. Ditto for 2020 presidential threads, although a new megathread in that board will be needed.

Lear, I get that you like making predictions and talking about it more than possibly anyone else on this forum for the past couple years (coincidentally, on a left-leaning forum, is exactly what a concern troll would do to provoke arguments and piss people off), but you don't need to make a new thread every 4-5 days for the same types of things. You just keep repeating yourself, and it's getting increasingly difficult not to see you as anything but a concern troll looking to piss people off with a very predictable pattern of behavior.

edit: fyi, feel free to change the title.

[King Lear]

This is my worst case scenario for Democrats in the 2018 Midterms:
2018 Senate Result: R+10
2018 House Result: R+14
This scenario will happen if the economy continues to boom, Democrats overemphasize Social issues and outrage to Trump tweets, and a major Terrorist attack occurs right before the elections. In this scenario Republicans gain Senate seats in WV, MO, IN, ND, MT, FL, WI, PA, MI, and OH, for a net gain of 10, while in the House Republicans flip House seats in AZ-01, MN-01, MN-07, MN-08, WI-03, FL-07, FL-13, IA-02, IL-17, PA-17, NV-03, NV-04, NJ-05, NY-18, and NH-01, and Democrats flip the House seat in FL-27, for a Republican net gain of 14.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Can we just use this thread to complain about him?

[fluffypanther19]

Note: For now on, King Lear's prediction threads and posts (where possible) will be merged here. Ditto for 2020 presidential threads, although a new megathread in that board will be needed.

Lear, I get that you like making predictions and talking about it more than possibly anyone else on this forum for the past couple years (coincidentally, on a left-leaning forum, is exactly what a concern troll would do to provoke arguments and piss people off), but you don't need to make a new thread every 4-5 days for the same types of things. You just keep repeating yourself, and it's getting increasingly difficult not to see you as anything but a concern troll looking to piss people off with a very predictable pattern of behavior.

edit: fyi, feel free to change the title.

thank you based mod

[mcmikk]

Note: For now on, King Lear's prediction threads and posts (where possible) will be merged here. Ditto for 2020 presidential threads, although a new megathread in that board will be needed.

Lear, I get that you like making predictions and talking about it more than possibly anyone else on this forum for the past couple years (coincidentally, on a left-leaning forum, is exactly what a concern troll would do to provoke arguments and piss people off), but you don't need to make a new thread every 4-5 days for the same types of things. You just keep repeating yourself, and it's getting increasingly difficult not to see you as anything but a concern troll looking to piss people off with a very predictable pattern of behavior.

edit: fyi, feel free to change the title.

thank you based mod

[King Lear]

This is my worst case scenario for Democrats in the 2018 Midterms:
2018 Senate Result: R+9
2018 House Result: R+2
This scenario will happen if the economy continues to boom and Democrats overemphasize Social issues and outrage to Trump tweets. In this scenario Republicans gain Senate seats in WV, MO, IN, ND, MT, FL , WI, PA, and OH, for a net gain of 9, while in the House Republicans flip House seats in AZ-01, MN-01, MN-07, MN-08, WI-03, IA-02, IL-17, PA-17, NV-03, and NH-01, and Democrats flip House seats in CA-49, CA-10, CA-25, CO-06, VA-10, TX-23, FL-26, and FL-27, for a Republican net gain of 2.

TX23 turns in a worst case for Democrats?

Your right, if Republicans are gaining 9 senate seats, then Democrats probably aren’t flipping TX-23 or most of those other seats I have them gaining. I’m going to edit those House results to make them more realistic for a worst case scenario.

[catographer]

Worst-case scenario: If Democrats do the same thing they did in 2016 + very strong economy.

House: range D+1 to R+5
Senate: range R+4 to R+8

[King Lear]

The absolute best case scenario for Democrats is D+2 in the Senate and D+30 in the House, while the absolute worst case scenario for Democrats is R+10 in the Senate and R+14 in the House. This means the median outcome is somewhere bettween R+4 and R+7 in the Senate and somewhere bettween D+4 and R+2 in the House.

[Pericles]

Senate: R+5

FL, OH, WV, ND, IN, MO go R
NV goes D
R 56-D 44

House: D+9

Republicans gain MN-01, MN-08, NH-01
Democrats gain CA-10, CA-25, CA-39, CA-49, CO-06, FL-26,FL-27, NE-02, TX-23, VA-10, WA-08, AZ-02
R 232-203 D
Popular vote D+3.5

Gubernatorial races: D+3
Republicans gain AK(gain from Independent), CT
Democrats gain NM, IL, MI, ME
R 31-19 D

[King Lear]

Here’s my worst case scenario for Republicans.
2018 Senate Result: D+2
2018 House Result: D+30
In this scenario Democrats gain 2 Senate seats (Arizona and Nevada), and 30 House seats (AZ-02, CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49, CO-06, FL-26, FL-27, IA-01, IA-03, IL-06, MI-11, MN-02, MN-03, NE-02, NJ-02, NJ-03, NJ-07, NJ-11, NY-19, NY-24, PA-06, PA-07, PA-08, TX-23, VA-10, and WA-08), and thus gain control of the House and Senate. This scenario will happen if a major “Black Swan” event happens between now and November (most likely either a sudden stock market crash, the Russia investigation getting out of control, or an embarissing foreign policy screw up). I’d give this Democratic Wave scenario a 30% probability of happening, while I’d give my median scenario (R+7 in the Senate, and R+2 in the House) a 50% probability of happening, and finally my Republican Wave scenario (R+10 in the Senate and R+14 in the House) a 20% probability of happening.

[King Lear]

I currently rate the House Likely Republican, because the only way I see Democrats winning a majority is with a “Black Swan event” such as a stock market crash, stunning development in the Mueller probe, or a foreign policy screw up. However, right now the stock market is soaring, Mueller’s probe is going nowhere, and the global geopolitical situation is relatively stable meaning if things stay as they are Democrats will not flip the house (Republicans may have a small net gain of R+2). Finaly, for historical context when the House flipped Republican in 2010, the economy was sill quite stagnant and Racist White people were voting in droves to punish Obama for giving healthcare to poor minorities, while in 2006 when Democrats flipped the House, America was stuck in a unpopular and unnecessary war in Iraq and the economy was already showing signs of going south (the subprime mortgage bubble was already starting to pop), none of these circumstances are equivalent to today meaning it’s quite unlikely the House will flip.

[MATTROSE94]

Worst case scenario for Republicans:

Senate: D+3 (Republicans pick up Missouri and West Virginia, but lose Nevada, Arizona, Mississippi, Texas, and Tennessee)
House: D+112 (Democrats pick up every seat with a PVI of less than R+10 with the exception of AR-2, KY-6, ME-2, and MO-2 and also pick up CA-1, CA-4, CA-23, CA-50, CO-4, IN-2, MT-AL, NY-27, TN-4, and UT-4)
Gubernatorial Races: D+13 (Democrats pick up Illinois, New Mexico, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Maryland, Georgia, Tennessee, Nevada, and Arizona)

Best case scenario for Republicans

Senate: R+9 (Republicans lose Arizona and Nevada, but pick up Missouri, West Virginia, Indiana, Minnseota (S), Montana, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and North Dakota)
House: D+8 (Democrats pick up CA-10, CA-21, CA-24, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49, CA-50, CO-6, FL-27, IA-1, NV-3, VA-10, and WA-8, whereas the Republicans pick up FL-13, MN-1, MN-7, MN-8, NH-1, NY-18, and WI-3)
Gubernatorial Races: R+1 (Democrats pick up Illinois and New Mexico, but the Republicans pick up Minnesota, Connecticut, and Rhode Island

[King Lear]

My official rating for this race is Safe Republican, Saccone will win by 20 points in march. Even if Democrats flip the House this November, they will not flip "White Working Class" districts like this, instead their pathway runs through the 23 Clinton-Republican districts and several marginal (less then 10 point) Trump districts.