MN-GOV - The return of Tim Pawlenty?

[Burke859]

I've read that some are speculating that T-Paw hasn't yet closed the door on a third gubernatorial run this year, and that he is only ruling out running for Senate.

Given that the race for the Minnesota state house seems to be wide open, how would Pawlenty do as a candidate for governor in a post-Trump world?

As a side note, Pawlenty was always one of my favorite dark horse presidential prospective candidates back in the day.  In some ways, he had the right idea of where the GOP was headed in terms of targeting the Industrial Midwest and blue collar whites.  His brief 2012 flirtation with a presidential campaign produced what I thought was one of the most underrated GOP political ads of our era, and in many ways portrays the possibility of a kinder, gentler Trumpism:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XsVHHN2nGlM

So would a Pawlenty run be just what the doctor ordered, or would it be more like Russ Feingold and Evan Bayh trying to make comebacks in 2016, too little, too late?

[Coldstream]

He’d probably have more success than Bayh or Feingold. But he’d be running in to too large a headwind with Trump’s negatives to win in my opinion. If Trump couldn’t win Minnesota in 2016 I don’t see how there’s mucn hope for any Republican in 2018. Also with two senate seats up as well you’d expect the DFL to be working harder than usual on turnout which would further harm his chances.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

No, Walz would castrate him.

[Ebsy]

GOP really has no bench in Minnesota, huh?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

GOP really has no bench in Minnesota, huh?

Kind of happens when a party hasn't won a statewide office in a decade.

[The Other Castro]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2018/02/01/pawlenty-donor-meeting-weighs-governors-race

[I’m not Stu]

Could Pawlenty or Norm Coleman win a primary in MN these days?

[henster]

- Has never won 50+%
- Left state with $6 billion deficit/high unemployment
- Flopped as a Presidential candidate
- Made millions as a DC lobbyist

I'm not sure the DFL has anything to worry about.

[Blair]

IIRC he doesn't even live in Minnesota anymore

[Former Kentuckian]

I honestly think he'd struggle in the primary. Isn't Jeff Johnson the presumptive Republican nominee?

[PAK Man]

- Has never won 50+%
- Left state with $6 billion deficit/high unemployment
- Flopped as a Presidential candidate
- Made millions as a DC lobbyist

I'm not sure the DFL has anything to worry about.

Exactly the reason I think people are overreacting that he's some god that can save the Minnesota Republican Party from botching the election.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I honestly think he'd struggle in the primary. Isn't Jeff Johnson the presumptive Republican nominee?

He only is because the MN GOP bench sucks and no one else particularly notable is running. His top competitor dropped out last week. The main opposition he has now is the former chair of the MN GOP who was leading the party when it got so broke it couldn't even pay rent on its HQ and they were facing eviction.

Pawlenty is about the only serious candidate they can get, so if he gets in he'll win the primary easily. However yeah, he's not much of a general election candidate.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

The real question is, if Pawlenty wins, how much of the Trumpist mantra he adopts as he campaigns. Ed Gillespie already showed that he was willing to put his eggs in the white-grievance basket in an attempt to run up margins in rural areas of the state. Who knows if Pawlenty would want to do the same, or stick to his 2002/2012 image, and how either would affect his chances.

Also, as an side, can we talk about how hilariously bad his signature is?

[Nyvin]

Tim Pawlenty is not running in 2018.

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/tim-pawlenty-not-running-senate-minnesota

[_]

Tim Pawlenty is not running in 2018.

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/tim-pawlenty-not-running-senate-minnesota

Read the word before Minnesota.

Not Running SENATE

[Bojicat]

A two-term ex governor remembered not-too-fondly for his middling performance as governor thinks he might take a crack at it again. Well, Pawlenty's chances are not as bad as you imagine. Let's not forget, that Dayton won his 2010 primary by a hair and then beat the GOP's Emmer that year by a mere (re-contested) 9,000 votes.

And many argue that we would have had a Governor Emmer, if not for the entrance of the Independence Party spoiling away 11% (200K+) of the vote.

Pawlenty has the advantage of name-recognition against a platoon of I-don't-know-who's, and a personality of profound dullness that many Minnesotans seem to prefer in their politicos. Add to that the alleged 'purpling' of the state and the loss of the unbeatable Tina Smith as Democratic gubernatorial standard-bearer, then you have a home-made stew which may taste like GOP this year.

[Burke859]

From a Republican perspective though, Pawlenty remains well-liked on the GOP side and is probably remembered more fondly than Coleman, partly because Pawlenty was just a more interesting political figure.

However one argument that Pawlenty is past his prime can be found in the differences between his map and Trump's map.  It's possible that in the post-Obama era, the urban and suburban voters around Minneapolis/St. Paul who voted for Pawlenty won't be coming back to the Republicans, even for one of their own.

Here's Pawlenty's 2006 victory map:



And here's Trump's 2016 map:



These appear to be very different coalitions.  Trump traded pretty much the entire Twin Cities area for the rural voters up north.  Bad deal in Minnesota for Trump but a good deal in other states.  In any case, can Pawlenty win back his Twin Cities voters, or does he have to try to win with Trumpy voters, similar to Ed Gillespie?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

the loss of the unbeatable Tina Smith as Democratic gubernatorial standard-bearer

Lol WHAT?

[Blair]

I think Pawlenty really is the type of politician that folks on here would be a really good recruit but is actually extremely average

[Suburbia]

I like Tim Pawlenty, he was one of my favorite politicians.

He was the safe, solid GOP choice pre-Trump.

He could win MN GOV 2018.


Kurt Daudt would be a good choice as well.

[Holmes]

Wow, can you even imagine Pawlenty being your favorite politician?

[TheRocketRaccoon]

Anyway, this flop just left his job:

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tim-pawlenty-to-step-down-from-banking-lobby-amid-speculation-about-minnesota-governor-race/article/2648238

[Landslide Lyndon]

Wow, can you even imagine Pawlenty being your favorite politician?

They must be the same people who say that Pauly Shore is their favorite comedian.

[Skunk]

Tim Pawlenty's probably going to crash and burn. He has a better chance of winning than if he were to run for Senate, but that isn't saying much.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Pawlenty still has an uphill climb it will be hard for him to replicate Trump rural margin especially if the nominee is Walz. Plus there is no way Pawlenty can replicate his Twin Cities performance I mean he got 40% in Hennepin county that a tough task for him to match especially after Virginia. Gillespie had ran 3 years and got wiped out in NOVA and Pawlenty hasn't run in more than 10 years.