MN-GOV - The return of Tim Pawlenty?

[The Arizonan]

Is Minnesota slowly turning into a Republican state or is it still sticking with the Democrats?

[Burke859]

Here's Pawlenty's 2006 victory map:

Also note that Bush/Kerry '04 basically had the same template as Pawlenty '06, just with a different outcome:



This template is probably gone forever now, after 8 years of Obama bringing more white collar whites into the Democratic Party, and 2 years of Trump bringing more blue collar whites into the GOP.

Can Trump's template actually win Minnesota?  I think Maine and Nevada are lower hanging fruits than Minnesota nationally, since neither have a major urban/suburban center filled with the very kinds of voters that have spent the past decade abandoning the GOP.

I just don't see how you win Minnesota without doing better in the Twin Cities.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I would really like to see MN Dems make a rebound in rural areas. It's pretty sad to see highly Scandanavian, rural areas of the state that have voted D for decades (e.g., The Lake Traverse bend counties, northern Red River Valley) lean hard right the last couple of cycles, especially considering there is zero DFL representation at the state level outside of precincts dominated by college towns. I seem to remember though that MN was one of the states where Trump had the highest voter support among 35 and younger voters. I really hope 2016 was just Hillary-specific (you can see she lost like 1000 votes from Obama's 2012 share in some counties that only have like 15K people) and that in 2018 the national environment, the state election frenzy, and Klobuchar's campaign can really energize the DFL in areas that aren't just The Cities metro area.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The biggest problem with that "Trump template" is that it also requires lousy turnout in certain locales across the state, especially a lot of college towns. Basically it's completely unusable against anyone but Hillary Clinton. And probably not by someone who was already woefully unpopular in parts of outstate Minnesota, ravaged it with some policies and is now a former banking lobbyist.

I think it goes without saying that Tim Walz is not Hillary Clinton, and neither is Rebecca Otto, who last won this:

[Ban my account ffs!]

A two-term ex governor remembered not-too-fondly for his middling performance as governor thinks he might take a crack at it again. Well, Pawlenty's chances are not as bad as you imagine. Let's not forget, that Dayton won his 2010 primary by a hair and then beat the GOP's Emmer that year by a mere (re-contested) 9,000 votes.

And many argue that we would have had a Governor Emmer, if not for the entrance of the Independence Party spoiling away 11% (200K+) of the vote.

Pawlenty has the advantage of name-recognition against a platoon of I-don't-know-who's, and a personality of profound dullness that many Minnesotans seem to prefer in their politicos. Add to that the alleged 'purpling' of the state and the loss of the unbeatable Tina Smith as Democratic gubernatorial standard-bearer, then you have a home-made stew which may taste like GOP this year.

Ugh.. I get so tired of having to point out how utterly retarded "analysis" like this is about my home state. 

Let's look at the facts:

It has been 12 years since a Republican won a statewide contest in Minnesota.  That is unprecedented in the history of the state of Minnesota.

The last person to win a statewide contest was Tim Pawlenty when he won in a 0.9% margin over his DFL opponent with a strong showing from the Independence Party.

During Tim Pawlenty's terms as governor, the economy of Minnesota stagnated.  Unlike the economic growth of the 1990s and post Great Recession, job growth in Minnesota was stagnant during the 2002-2007 economic recovery and growth period.  We fell behind.  We also suffered from structural budget deficits which Pawlenty used to slash aid to local governments and healthcare programs.  He was the first governor to actually cut funding to schools.

During his 2nd term, with the state department of transportation under the watchful eye of his farmgirl turned exurban land profiteer Lt. Governor Carol Molnau, a bridge tumbled into the Mississippi River at the height of rush hour.  Afterwards, Pawlenty was skeptical and against proper funding to replace the bridge and vetoed (which was overridden) a gas tax increase to fund bridge repairs.  All because he wanted to suck on the cock of Grover Norquist in hopes of higher political office after his governorship.

His MNDOT head and Lt. Governor also engaged in funding gimmicks for other projects including one to rebuild a classic bottleneck that asked contractors to front money on the project with the state "promising" to pay later.  Nobody bid.  Then, in another shady case where she gave the contract to a company she was friendly with, the long behind schedule and over-cost bridge replacement on I-494 started cracking and falling apart before it had ever opened to traffic.

In the end Tim Pawlenty left Minnesota with a reeling economy and an unprecedented budget deficit.  Because the DFL controlled legislature did not have a veto proof majority and Pawlenty refused to raise any taxes, money was "borrowed" from the schools by delaying payments to school districts effectively forcing them to spend down their reserves or borrow money.  Luckily Mark Dayton made the GOP legislature he inherited pay that money back.

This man is scum.  Worse than scum.  At least scum doesn't pretend to be competent at running a state.

He has spend the past 5 years lobbying for banks and the super wealthy... and now we're expected to believe he's gonna come back and "drain the swamp" in St. Paul and rid us of those stifling budget surpluses and healthy economic growth and very low (3.1%) unemployment?

Stay away, Timmy... you're gross.

[Bojicat]

A two-term ex governor remembered not-too-fondly for his middling performance as governor thinks he might take a crack at it again. Well, Pawlenty's chances are not as bad as you imagine. Let's not forget, that Dayton won his 2010 primary by a hair and then beat the GOP's Emmer that year by a mere (re-contested) 9,000 votes.

And many argue that we would have had a Governor Emmer, if not for the entrance of the Independence Party spoiling away 11% (200K+) of the vote.

Pawlenty has the advantage of name-recognition against a platoon of I-don't-know-who's, and a personality of profound dullness that many Minnesotans seem to prefer in their politicos. Add to that the alleged 'purpling' of the state and the loss of the unbeatable Tina Smith as Democratic gubernatorial standard-bearer, then you have a home-made stew which may taste like GOP this year.

Ugh.. I get so tired of having to point out how utterly retarded "analysis" like this is about my home state. 

Let's look at the facts:

It has been 12 years since a Republican won a statewide contest in Minnesota.  That is unprecedented in the history of the state of Minnesota.

The last person to win a statewide contest was Tim Pawlenty when he won in a 0.9% margin over his DFL opponent with a strong showing from the Independence Party.

During Tim Pawlenty's terms as governor, the economy of Minnesota stagnated.  Unlike the economic growth of the 1990s and post Great Recession, job growth in Minnesota was stagnant during the 2002-2007 economic recovery and growth period.  We fell behind.  We also suffered from structural budget deficits which Pawlenty used to slash aid to local governments and healthcare programs.  He was the first governor to actually cut funding to schools.

During his 2nd term, with the state department of transportation under the watchful eye of his farmgirl turned exurban land profiteer Lt. Governor Carol Molnau, a bridge tumbled into the Mississippi River at the height of rush hour.  Afterwards, Pawlenty was skeptical and against proper funding to replace the bridge and vetoed (which was overridden) a gas tax increase to fund bridge repairs.  All because he wanted to suck on the cock of Grover Norquist in hopes of higher political office after his governorship.

His MNDOT head and Lt. Governor also engaged in funding gimmicks for other projects including one to rebuild a classic bottleneck that asked contractors to front money on the project with the state "promising" to pay later.  Nobody bid.  Then, in another shady case where she gave the contract to a company she was friendly with, the long behind schedule and over-cost bridge replacement on I-494 started cracking and falling apart before it had ever opened to traffic.

In the end Tim Pawlenty left Minnesota with a reeling economy and an unprecedented budget deficit.  Because the DFL controlled legislature did not have a veto proof majority and Pawlenty refused to raise any taxes, money was "borrowed" from the schools by delaying payments to school districts effectively forcing them to spend down their reserves or borrow money.  Luckily Mark Dayton made the GOP legislature he inherited pay that money back.

This man is scum.  Worse than scum.  At least scum doesn't pretend to be competent at running a state.

He has spend the past 5 years lobbying for banks and the super wealthy... and now we're expected to believe he's gonna come back and "drain the swamp" in St. Paul and rid us of those stifling budget surpluses and healthy economic growth and very low (3.1%) unemployment?

Stay away, Timmy... you're gross.

Calling Pawlenty "scum", "worse than scum"? My, oh my. That is coming from an extreme, tainting all of your viewpoints.  Pawlenty doesn't have enough policy and personality to pounce on so viciously. There's not that much meat and blood on him, at least not so much of a person for anyone to hate with such vehemence.  And then at the tail-end, you call him "gross"? A child's word. How old are you?

[Ban my account ffs!]

I had an immobile, disabled mother who spent the entire Pawlenty era being threatened with her medicaid or home health aides being taken away... it became a yearly thing.  Many conservatives and Republicans agreed she should have it taken away and be left out on her own.  Those people are disgusting scum as well.

You clearly can't counter anything I said except for the words I used to describe a man I disdain for many legitimate reasons.  You're a disingenuous creep.

The man is scum.  And it doesn't surprise me that you like him.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

I had an immobile, disabled mother who spent the entire Pawlenty era being threatened with her medicaid or home health aides being taken away... it became a yearly thing.  Many conservatives and Republicans agreed she should have it taken away and be left out on her own.  Those people are disgusting scum as well.

You clearly can't counter anything I said except for the words I used to describe a man I disdain for many legitimate reasons.  You're a disingenuous creep.

The man is scum.  And it doesn't surprise me that you like him.

He can't be that conservative! He's from a consistent blue state! That means the state GOP must be moderate and chivalrous! Who else will be my very important token Republican gubernatorial endorsement when the Atlas endorsements come around?

[_]

Lean D with T-Paw, Likely D without.

He's not Moderate tho

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Lean D with T-Paw, Likely D without.

He's not Moderate tho

Tim Walz is from Nebraska. I hope he wins.

I only post about Nebraska and people from Nebraska, it seems. I just always feel like I need to jump in when Nebraska is relevant. No one seems to care to look up stuff about Nebraska elections (granted, most are not terribly interesting). You could say that for any state, though. Most elections in the plains states are dominated by Republicans, so who can blame everyone?

I don't even have super-deep Nebraska pride. It's like if someone from Wyoming came here and posted about Wyoming all the time. We need more people like that, just like how Ted Cruz said we need 100 Jesse Helms clones in the Senate (note: I do not want 100 Jesse Helms clones in the Senate).

Ah! There! Ted Cruz and Jesse Helms don't have too much to do with Nebraska, now, do they?

[Tartarus Sauce]

Pawlenty is a Strickland waiting to happen; seems like a strong recruit at first given their previous position of high office within the state only to get blown out at election time.

[junior chįmp]

Pawlenty is a Strickland waiting to happen.

Bodes well for Dems winning the MN legislature back

[The Other Castro]

Chris Coleman suspends his campaign.

https://www.twincities.com/2018/02/12/chris-coleman-suspends-campaign-for-minnesota-governor/

[Blair]

Pawlenty is a Strickland waiting to happen; seems like a strong recruit at first given their previous position of high office within the state only to get blown out at election time.

Tbh I don't even see him being as good as Strickland was at first

[Fuzzy Bear]

I'm looking at the long list of retreads that have crashed and burned:

Mike Castle (R) - Delaware Senate, 2010
Tommy Thompson (R) Wisconsin Senate, 2012
Russ Feingold (D) Wisconsin Senate, 2016
Charlie Crist (D) Florida Governor, 2014
Walter Mondale (D) Minnesota Senate, 2002
Roy Barnes (D) Georgia Governor, 2010
Ted Strickland (D) Ohio Senate, 2016
Bob Kerrey (D) Nebraska Senate, 2012
Evan Bayh (D) Indiana Senate, 2016
Scott Brown (R) New Hampshire Senate, 2014

There have been some retreads that made it:

Terry Branstad (R) Iowa Governor, 2010
Jerry Brown (D) California Governor, 2010
Frank Lautenberg (D) New Jersey Senate, 2002
Mark Dayton (D) Minnesota Governor, 2010

I don't see where Pawlenty will buck the trend of retreads losing.  He wasn't special.  He was a Republican who got elected Governor in a Democratic state. 

[un]

He's not coming back. No one really knows who he is anymore. And in the era of Trump Republicans, he'd be deemed as too far left, somehow.

[Tartarus Sauce]

The biggest problem with that "Trump template" is that it also requires lousy turnout in certain locales across the state, especially a lot of college towns. Basically it's completely unusable against anyone but Hillary Clinton. And probably not by someone who was already woefully unpopular in parts of outstate Minnesota, ravaged it with some policies and is now a former banking lobbyist.

I think it goes without saying that Tim Walz is not Hillary Clinton, and neither is Rebecca Otto, who last won this:

I didn't notice this before, but how did Otto manage to win in places like Anoka and Chisago but lose in Olmsted? It's as if she flipped their partisan orientations back to where they were in the 90s.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Olmsted County is not really that Democratic, it's just that Rochester is a terrible city for Trump and one where Obama was more popular than the average Democrat.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Olmsted County is not really that Democratic, it's just that Rochester is a terrible city for Trump and one where Obama was more popular than the average Democrat.

But that's what's confusing. She didn't manage to lockdown Olmsted County but did have enough momentum to carry Anoka and Chisago. How could she perform strongly enough to flip the latter two but not strongly enough to defend the former? I would have assumed their shift would be unidirectional, not divergent.

[The Other Castro]

"Florida fundraiser, new account point to Pawlenty run for governor"

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2018/03/12/tim-pawleny-minnesota-governor-race-fundraiser-florida

[Virginiá]

So I guess 2018 is getting their Evan Bayh after all!

[Mr. Morden]

I'm hoping for more ads that play like a trailer to a Jerry Bruckheimer movie:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=131171.0

[Jeppe]

https://twitter.com/Rebecca_Otto/status/971377050853441536

Walz and Otto are tied for delegates right now, for the convention in June. However, Walz was the only candidate that didn't pledge to drop out if they failed to receive the DFL endorsement at the convention, so even if Otto won the endorsement, Walz may still challenge her for it.

I'm unsure of the specifics of the endorsement system, but with these numbers, I think Otto would win the endorsement, given that both Otto and Murphy are running as progressives.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/Rebecca_Otto/status/971377050853441536

Walz and Otto are tied for delegates right now, for the convention in June. However, Walz was the only candidate that didn't pledge to drop out if they failed to receive the DFL endorsement at the convention, so even if Otto won the endorsement, Walz may still challenge her for it.

I'm unsure of the specifics of the endorsement system, but with these numbers, I think Otto would win the endorsement, given that both Otto and Murphy are running as progressives.

Don't believe the Otto campaign spin, Walz is currently the front runner by a wide margin according to most accounts.  Trying to track candidate preferences of those elected as state delegates is extremely difficult if not impossible for those not in a campaign because often state convention delegates are selected by issues they support, not the candidate they support.  There are often groups like the "Labor caucus" or the  "Environment caucus" or many many others. Some large BPOU conventions may have as many as 50 subgroups to start out with.

BTW I believe Otto has also not ruled out running in the primary if she does not get the endorsement.

[The Other Castro]

https://twitter.com/JRosenthalKSTP/status/975806259982225409