The New Frontier (A Different Path, Chapter 1)

[Cold War Liberal]

November 3, 1964
10:00 PM

“This is Election Night 1964 on CBS. Polls just closed in Iowa, Idaho, Utah, Montana, and Nevada, and we can call two of them: Idaho and Utah will both go to Governor Rockefeller. We can make an additional call: New Mexico will fall into Kennedy’s column.”

10:35 PM

“CBS can finally project the state of Missouri for President Kennedy. Kennedy had apparently heavily considered putting Senator Stuart Symington of that state on the ticket, but decided to choose Morris Udall instead; it turns out not to have mattered that much, as Kennedy has taken the state anyway. And we are just getting word that, due to vote splitting between Faubus and Kennedy, Nelson Rockefeller has won South Carolina. A very narrow victory indeed, but his lead has held for about an hour now.”

[MillennialModerate]

Come on!

I need to see JFK landslide this thing and the coat tails he provides to the 89th Congress!

[Cold War Liberal]

November 3, 1964
11:00 PM

“Polls have closed across the entire continental United States as Washington state, Oregon, and California have finished voting. All three West Coast states are currently too early to call. We can, however, project that Nelson Rockefeller has narrowly carried the state of Delaware - oh, we just reports that Rockefeller has also carried New Jersey, which is a bigger win than Delaware in terms of electoral votes. We have two rather large calls to make for President Kennedy: he has taken North Carolina, despite a very strong challenge from Orval Faubus; and, after votes from Chicago came back overwhelmingly Democratic, Kennedy has narrowly carried Illinois. These are big calls for the President, and serious blows to Faubus and Rockefeller. The Republican nominee still has a path to 270, but it is a very, very narrow one.”

11:38 PM

“CBS can now call the state of Nevada for Nelson Rockefeller. It was a very tight race, but Rockefeller has prevailed. President Kennedy has won the state of Washington, which was also a narrow contest. Oh, this just in, we’ve just called the state of California for Nelson Rockefeller. Even though the state is rather close, and even though it is a little early, Rockefeller's lead is steady enough that we can call the state with confidence. With these wins, the Rockefeller camp must be excited, as it puts them back into play. They still trail Kennedy 209 to 129 in the electoral vote, but there are ways for Rockefeller to pull out a victory.

12:07 AM

“Governor Rockefeller has narrowly pulled out a win in Iowa. His margin for error is very, very small; even if he wins every remaining state, he will get 276 electoral votes, or barely more than necessary. And we just got word that, astonishingly, Orval Faubus has carried Texas in an extremely narrow victory over the President. Kennedy does not have Texas native Lyndon Johnson on the ticket this year, which seems to have hurt him significantly. Still, it is hard to express how unexpected this call is. Faubus really threw himself into the state during the last two weeks of the campaign, and like in Virginia it seems to have worked. This also means that Nelson Rockefeller’s path to 270 electoral votes no longer exists. If he wins every remaining state, he only gets to 251. Additionally, the chances of the election being sent to the House has increased dramatically, especially if Rockefeller wins his home state of New York.”

“President Kennedy currently has 205 electoral votes. Governor Rockefeller has 138. Governor Faubus has 82.”

[Mr. Smith]

If Rocky wins NY, JFK literally has to win everything else left. If Rocky loses NY but takes PA, he only needs Oregon and one of TN/IN to get over the line.

If Rocky wins both PA and NY, the election goes to the House.

It really is down to those two states....ingenius!

[America Needs R'hllor]

Wow, I hope it does go to the House... Go on, this is great!

[Cold War Liberal]

November 4, 1964
1:00 AM

“Hawaii is the last state to close its polls, and it has now done so. We can call it for President Kennedy. We can also call Alaska for Kennedy. It went narrowly for Nixon in 1960, and now it has gone Democratic for the first time ever. We can call two more states as well: Nelson Rockefeller will carry Pennsylvania by just a few thousand votes; and President Kennedy will carry Indiana by a similarly narrow margin.”

“The count is 225 for Kennedy, 167 for Rockefeller, and 82 for Faubus. At 1 in the morning, this election is still not settled.”

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

What’s the popular vote looking like?

[MAINEiac4434]

Rockefeller can't win the electoral college even with PA.

[Torrain]

If the race goes to Congress to decide, what are the odds of a Kennedy/Smith administration?

[UWS]

Wow, I hope it does go to the House... Go on, this is great!

If this goes to the House, then JFK wins since the House was under Democratic control.

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

I don't think you can decide if you want Rockefeller or Kennedy to win; I can't imagine that Rocky loses New York having won neighboring New Jersey; it appears that Kennedy would need both Washington state and Tennessee and that doesn't get him beyond 245 + Thought's

[Mr. Smith]

Rockefeller can't win the electoral college even with PA.

True, but if he takes New York, then Kennedy can't win the college either. If he loses his home state somehow, then Kennedy has to get another 4-6 EV somewhere.

@UWS: Unless enough Dixiecrats in the House revolt over Civil

Wow, I hope it does go to the House... Go on, this is great!

If this goes to the House, then JFK wins since the House was under Democratic control.

Unless there's a Dixiecrat revolt.

[Cold War Liberal]

November 4, 1964
2:32 AM

“We have a major call to make: President Kennedy has won Nelson Rockefeller’s home state of New York. Now, with 268 electoral votes, all Kennedy has to do is win one of the three outstanding states that have not yet been called: either Oregon, Montana, or Tennessee. Montana and Oregon are practically tied at the moment, but Kennedy has a narrow lead in Tennessee. We are not prepared to call any of them right now, however.”

[UWS]

I guess Montana will go to Kennedy since Nixon won it narrowly by 3 percentage points in 1960 and since Rockefeller's moderate/liberal positions could displease an important part of voters of a strongly conservative state like Montana.

[MillennialModerate]

I love this timeline for the subject and the creativity and I hope it continues up to present day ... but in what world would JFK not landslide his way to a second term?

[Mr. Smith]

I'm surprised JFK is leading Tennessee, kinda thought Eastern Tennessee would give it to Rocky while the West and Middle split between Faubus Dixiecrats and the black vote for JFK.

[Cold War Liberal]

November 4, 1964
3:29 AM

“Well, ladies and gentlemen, we can finally call this race and the Presidency of the United States. President Kennedy has won the state of Tennessee by just a few thousand votes, giving him 279 electoral votes and 4 more years in the White House. John F. Kennedy will remain President of the United States, and Morris Udall will become the 38th Vice President of the United States. This was a long, messy, close election, but it has finally reached its conclusion tonight.”

5:27 AM

“We can call the last two states right now: President Kennedy has taken both Oregon and, somewhat surprisingly, Montana. That means that the final vote count is 289 electoral votes for Kennedy, 167 for Rockefeller, and 82 for Orval Faubus. It is not finalized yet, but at the moment Kennedy has about 42% of the popular vote, Rockefeller won about 39%, and Faubus has taken almost 19%.”

[MillennialModerate]

Great writing! I honestly didn’t know where it was going at some points.

My thoughts on what states would’ve gone to who in this scenario:

I think Virginia would go Rockefeller, Georgia would go Kennedy.
California, Pennsylvania and New Jersey would go Kennedy.

I do agree that Faubus would take Texas and I do agree vote splitting would likely give Rockefeller Florida.

[UWS]

Are we going to have Rockefeller's concession speech and Kennedy's victory speech?

[Cold War Liberal]

Are we going to have Rockefeller's concession speech and Kennedy's victory speech?

Yes, plus final results from the Presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections will come after. Then I'll do a meta post about how I'm going to format the next term.

November 4, 1964
Nelson

“Ladies and gentlemen, first of all, thank you for the support. I couldn’t have done any of this without you…”

Nelson was tired and disappointed. He’d most likely not get another shot at the job he’d wanted since he was a kid. And yet… he was relieved too. The campaign was fun, but it’d taken a toll on him. He was looking forward to getting back to focus on New York, and his wife and new son.

“...we beat out the radicals in the primaries, and we can’t let them point at this defeat to bolster arguments in favor of their radicalism…”

...which was exactly what Nelson feared would happen. The Republicans were deeply divided on ideological lines, and the last thing Nelson wanted was some radical conservative coming along in 1968 and losing in a landslide, dooming the GOP.

Or worse, winning.

“...and I’d also like to congratulate President Kennedy on his victory. He’s our nation’s President, and he deserves our respect and support, because his success is America’s success…”

Someone Nelson wouldn’t congratulate was Senator-elect W. Averell Harriman, who’d stepped out of the Kennedy administration a few months ago to run for Senate in New York. Somehow, Rocky’s political rival had actually won. Bah.

“...come together as a nation and heal our divides, and get things done. That’s why I’ll do everything I can to help President Kennedy get the Civil Rights Act passed…”

Nelson hadn’t been kidding in that debate; he intended to lobby day and night until that bill was passed. He cared about the poor and the downtrodden. It broke his heart that some had to fight - or die - for their constitutional rights because of their skin color. He’d never really understand, on a personal level, but maybe he could do something about it…

“Goodnight New York, and goodnight America!”

The crowd cheered as he walked off the stage. He thought about what lied ahead. He’d run for another term in ‘66, probably, but in ‘68… No, he would not run for President again. He’d instead stand back and let someone else take the GOP’s reins. Perhaps Governor Romney of Michigan, he quite liked him. Possibly Scranton, if he wanted to take a real go at the nomination. But he’d fight against Goldwater, if he ran, or whoever the conservatives tried to put up.

This was, for the moment, Nelson’s party. The conservatives would have to pry it from his cold, dead hands.

[Cold War Liberal]

November 4, 1964
Jack

He had done it. It had been a long, hard slog, but he had done it.

“Ladies and gentlemen, my fellow Americans, thank you so much for your support! We did it! Yesterday, Americans of all stripes came out and voted for the New Frontier, for strong and competent leadership…”

Of course, Jack wished it was a much bigger victory. The dust hadn’t completely settled yet, but it looked as if Faubus had taken enough votes away from Jack that he’d gotten significantly fewer popular votes than he had in 1960, which had also been a narrow election. Only around 42%, he thought, which isn’t exactly a mandate... He’d also gotten fewer electoral votes than in 1960, though the popular vote margin was bigger. Oh well, a win is a win, he thought. Thankfully, Nelson was being quite gracious and had pledged his support for the President. Faubus wouldn’t do the same.

“...and we must work together, Democrats and Republicans, to advance programs to fight poverty, enact civil rights legislation, and maintain America’s place in the world…”

Even if Jack wasn’t happy about how narrow the election was, he was glad it was behind him, and was confident about the upcoming term. Now, he didn’t have to worry much about pissing off Southerners with bold civil rights legislation. He could get it passed on the backs of liberals and let the rest work itself out. The midterms wouldn’t be great regardless of what he did, but the Democratic majorities were pretty safe. And making conservatives angry wouldn’t please Vice President-elect Udall, who undoubtedly wanted an easy run for the nomination and a good shot at the Presidency in 1968. He wouldn’t toss Udall to the dogs, but Mo wouldn’t get a coronation. If he wanted Jack’s backing in ‘68, he’d have to work for it, and that meant taking bold steps to get things done. Otherwise, Jack would pull the "I will support the nominee" s--- and let the primary cards fall where they may.

“...once again, thank you! Going into the 1970’s, America will continue to be the greatest nation on Earth, and we will have never been as successful as we will be then! Goodnight…”

Yes, this will be a good term, Jack suspected as he walked off the stage to shake supporters' hands. It will be productive and seal my legacy as one of the better Presidents of the 20th century.

As long as nothing gets in the way.

[Cold War Liberal]

1964 United States Elections
Final Results

President John F. Kennedy (D-MA)/Congressman Morris Udall (D-AZ): 27,051,152, 41.75%, 289 Electoral Votes
Governor Nelson Rockefeller (R-NY)/Senator Margaret Chase Smith (R-ME): 25,495,640, 39.35%, 167 Electoral Votes
Governor Orval Faubus (ACP-AR)/Governor George Wallace (ACP-AL): 12,140,123, 18.75%, 82 Electoral Votes
Other candidates: 113,743, 0.18%, 0 Electoral Votes
Total: 64,800,658
Turnout: 56.80% ( 6%)

Closest states
Oregon
John F. Kennedy: 318,485
Nelson Rockefeller: 317,405
Orval Faubus: 116,345

Pennsylvania
Nelson Rockefeller: 1,912,510
John F. Kennedy: 1,910,072
Orval Faubus: 635,690

Montana
John F. Kennedy: 108,398
Nelson Rockefeller: 107,167
Orval Faubus: 39,244

Tennessee
John F. Kennedy: 384,163
Nelson Rockefeller: 379,301
Orval Faubus: 308,926

Texas
Orval Faubus: 824,878
John F. Kennedy: 817,569
Nelson Rockefeller: 709,451

House of Representatives

Democrats: 282 ( 24)
Republicans: 153 ( 23)

House Speaker: John William McCormack
Majority Leader: Carl Albert
Majority Whip: Hale Boggs

Minority Leader: Gerald Ford
Minority Whip: Leslie Arends

Senate

Democrats: 64 ( 2)
Republicans: 36 ( 2)

President of the Senate: Morris Udall
President pro tempore: Carl Hayden

Majority Leader: Mike Mansfield
Majority Whip: Hubert Humphrey

Minority Leader: Everett Dirksen
Minority Whip: Thomas Kuchel

Individual Race Results
(asterisk = incumbent)

Arizona
Barry Goldwater*: 55.23%
Roy Elson: 44.17%

California
George Murphy: 53.01%, [REPUBLICAN GAIN]
Pierre Salinger*: 46.45%

Connecticut
Thomas Dodd*: 65.37%
John Lodge: 34.21%

Delaware
John Williams*: 51.69%
Elbert Carvel: 47.97%

Florida
Spessard Holland*: 59.40%
Claude Kirk, Jr.: 40.11%

Hawaii
Hiram Fong*: 53.22%
Thomas Gill: 45.87%

Indiana
Vance Hartke*: 51.22%
D. Russell Bontrager: 48.54%

Maine
Edmund Muskie*: 63.97%
Clifford Mctire: 34.77%

Maryland
Joseph Tydings: 56.98%, [DEMOCRATIC GAIN]
James Glenn Beall*: 41.22%

Massachusetts
Ted Kennedy*: 71.09%
Howard Whitford, Jr.: 27.58%

Michigan
Philip Hart*: 62.13%
Elly Peterson: 37.00%

Minnesota
Eugene McCarthy*: 57.02%
Wheelock Whitney: 42.44%

Mississippi
John C. Stennis*: unopposed

Missouri
Stuart Symington*: 58.11%
Jean Bradshaw: 40.72%

Montana
Mike Mansfield*: 60.02
Alex Blewett: 39.67%

Nebraska
Roman Hruska*: 62.39%
Raymond Arndt: 36.29%

Nevada
Paul Laxalt: 50.07%, [REPUBLICAN GAIN]
Howard Cannon*: 49.93%

New Jersey
Harrison Williams, Jr.*: 58.41%
Bernard Shanley: 40.98%

New Mexico
Joseph Montoya: 50.99%, [DEMOCRATIC GAIN]
Edwin Mechum*: 48.72%

New York
W. Averell Harriman: 50.12%, [DEMOCRATIC GAIN]
Kenneth B. Keating*: 49.35%

North Dakota
Quentin Burdick*: 52.07%
Thomas Kleppe: 46.79%

Ohio
Robert Taft, Jr: 50.03%, [REPUBLICAN GAIN]
Stephen Young*: 49.75%

Oklahoma (special)
Bud Wilkinson: 50.06%, [REPUBLICAN GAIN]
Fred Harris: 49.68%

Pennsylvania
Hugh Scott*: 51.68%
Genevieve Blatt: 47.88%

Rhode Island
John Pastore*: 84.77%
Ronald Lagueux: 14.16%

Tennessee
Albert Gore, Sr.*: 50.74%
Dan Kuykendall: 49.13%

Tennessee (special)
Howard Baker: 50.67%, [REPUBLICAN GAIN]
Ross Bass: 49.03%

Texas
Ralph Yarborough*: 53.45%
George H. W. Bush: 45.99%

Utah
Frank Moss*: 52.25%
Ernest Wilkinson: 47.44%

Vermont
Winston Prouty*: 51.92
Frederick Fayette: 47.77%

Virginia
Harry F. Byrd*: 64.96%
Richard May: 18.04%
James Respess: 14.85%

Washington
Henry M. Jackson*: 71.98
Lloyd Andrews: 27.24%

West Virginia
Robert Byrd*: 67.71%
Cooper Benedict: 32.29%

Wisconsin
William Proxmire*: 52.68%
Wilbur Renk: 46.17%

Wyoming
Gale McGee*: 53.55%
John Wold: 46.12%

Governor's Mansions

Individual Race Results
(asterisk = incumbent)

Arizona
Samuel Goddard, Jr.: 53.24%, [DEMOCRATIC GAIN]
Richard Kliendienst: 46.76%

Arkansas
Orval Faubus*: 57.00%
Winthrop Rockefeller: 42.99%

Delaware
David P. Buckson: 50.02% [REPUBLICAN GAIN]
Charles Terry, Jr.: 49.85%

Florida
W. Haydon Burns: 52.11%
Charles Holley: 47.21%

Illinois
Otto Kerner, Jr.*: 51.93%
Charles Percy: 48.07%

Indiana
Roger Branigin: 53.81%
Richard Ristine: 46.20%

Iowa
Harold Hughes*: 66.60%
Robert Dilley: 32.92%

Kansas
William Avery: 49.92%
Harry Willes: 49.57%

Massachusetts
Francis Bellotti: 49.98%
John Volpe: 49.47%

Michigan
George Romney*: 52.39%
Neil Staebler: 46.72%

Missouri
Warren Hearnes: 58.05%
Ethan Shepley: 41.19%

Montana
Roland Renne: 49.82%, [DEMOCRATIC GAIN]
Tim Babcock*: 49.62%

Nebraska
Frank Morrison*: 56.71%
Dwight Burney: 42.56%

New Hampshire
John King*: 62.27%
John Pillsbury: 37.12%

New Mexico
Jack Campbell*: 57.24%
Merle Tucker: 42.04%

North Carolina
Dan Moore: 51.91%
Robert Gavin: 46.79%

North Dakota
William Guy*: 54.01%
Donald Halcrow: 45.92%

Rhode Island
John Chafee*: 61.02%
Edward Gallogly: 38.98%

South Dakota
Nils Boe: 50.21%
John Lindley: 49.79%

Texas
John Connally*: 73.78%
Jack Crichton: 25.02%

Utah
Calvin Rampton: 53.99%, [DEMOCRATIC GAIN]
Mitchell Melich: 46.01%

Vermont
Philip Hoff*: 67.93%
Ralph Foote: 32.06%

Washington
Daniel Evans: 51.19%, [REPUBLICAN GAIN]
Albert Rosellini*: 48.81%

West Virginia
Hulett Smith: 54.45%
Cecil Underwood: 45.54%

Wisconsin
John Reynolds, Jr.*: 50.15%
Warren Knowles: 49.84%

[Cold War Liberal]

California
George Murphy: 53.01%, [REPUBLICAN GAIN]
Pierre Salinger*: 46.45%

This will make a lot of people (including myself) sad but I see no objective reason why Salinger would survive in this timeline, where the Republican nominee won California, when he did not in real life, when the Democratic nominee did win CA. Just so we're clear, A Different Path is not a series of Kennedy/Democratic wank timelines.

[MillennialModerate]

Great great job!

In JFK’s second term I want to see what happens with Civil Rights. What does he get passed and how significant is it, what impact does it have on Southern Democrats. How expansive is the New Frontier domestic policy compared to LBJ’s great society. Also, what happens with Vietnam?

What does RFK do? Does he wait until JFK is out of office totally before following his own ambitions or does he run for office in 66? What is Teddy’s fate since he’s not doomed by Chappaquiddick.

‘68 should be very interesting as well... hope to see JFK leave office as a Top 3 most beloved Presidents with far reaching accomplishments - of course how interesting his story is makes for an even better read!

As far as the future goes, I’m most curious what happens in worlds events and what happens to the men who were Presidents in OTL as well as RFK, Teddy, Caroline and most of all JFK JR.

[MillennialModerate]

California
George Murphy: 53.01%, [REPUBLICAN GAIN]
Pierre Salinger*: 46.45%

This will make a lot of people (including myself) sad but I see no objective reason why Salinger would survive in this timeline, where the Republican nominee won California, when he did not in real life, when the Democratic nominee did win CA. Just so we're clear, A Different Path is not a series of Kennedy/Democratic wank timelines.

Totally agree and for the same reasons you cited: I can’t see why he would survive if he didn’t survive in OTL and since the GOP candidate won the state in the Presidential race as well. Others in the administration I think do very well but Pierre despite being a good person, doesn’t have “it”.