PA-18 Special Election Prediction
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Poll
Question: Who will win the March special election in PA-18, and by how many points?
#1
Lamb by 5-10		  
#2
Lamb 0-5		  
#3
Saccone 0-5		  
#4
Saccone by 5-10		  
#5
Saccone by 10-20		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 138

Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election Prediction  (Read 11934 times)
Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #100 on: March 12, 2018, 02:29:50 PM »
In light of recent events, my final guess is actually Lamb 50-48.5. Though I would not be surprised by Saccone narrowly winning either.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #101 on: March 12, 2018, 03:09:03 PM »
I’ll say Lamb +2. Monmouth seems too bullish but I think Lamb wins
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #102 on: March 12, 2018, 03:24:05 PM »
I originally thought Saccone by 5, something like 52-48 or 53-47, however now I am no longer sure. Still think the district is too R for a dem to win, but I wouldn't be surprised if Lamb wins. Putting it like 50-50 chances of either candidate winning.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #103 on: March 12, 2018, 03:25:12 PM »
Lamb by at least 3.
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King Lear
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« Reply #104 on: March 12, 2018, 03:46:14 PM »
« Edited: March 12, 2018, 04:31:19 PM by King Lear »
Here’s my official PA-18 special election prediction.
2018 PA-18 Special Election Result:
Rick Saccone: 51%
Conor Lamb: 48%
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Peanut
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« Reply #105 on: March 12, 2018, 04:41:45 PM »
+2% for either candidate. Hope Lamb wins.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #106 on: March 12, 2018, 05:13:28 PM »
Those favorables have me at Lamb winning. Sorry, but it's gonna happen.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #107 on: March 12, 2018, 05:26:26 PM »
Lamb by 3.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #108 on: March 12, 2018, 05:31:14 PM »
« Edited: March 12, 2018, 05:38:57 PM by Fmr. Pres. Griff »
Atlas average prediction (March only):
Lamb +1.1
27 precise responses
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #109 on: March 12, 2018, 05:33:29 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on March 12, 2018, 03:24:05 PM
I originally thought Saccone by 5, something like 52-48 or 53-47, however now I am no longer sure. Still think the district is too R for a dem to win, but I wouldn't be surprised if Lamb wins. Putting it like 50-50 chances of either candidate winning.
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Badger
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« Reply #110 on: March 12, 2018, 05:43:04 PM »
Can we kindly merge these two competing threads?
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Virginiá
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« Reply #111 on: March 12, 2018, 05:47:32 PM »
Quote from: Badger on March 12, 2018, 05:43:04 PM
Can we kindly merge these two competing threads?

Right away, kind sir.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #112 on: March 12, 2018, 07:27:57 PM »

I don't even know anymore.
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mcmikk
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« Reply #113 on: March 12, 2018, 07:30:00 PM »
Lamb +3
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #114 on: March 12, 2018, 07:31:24 PM »
Monmouth has an A+ rating from 538. Lamb +4
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Badger
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« Reply #115 on: March 12, 2018, 09:52:15 PM »
Quote from: Virginia on March 12, 2018, 05:47:32 PM
Quote from: Badger on March 12, 2018, 05:43:04 PM
Can we kindly merge these two competing threads?

Right away, kind sir.

Thank you, oh queen of mods. Smiley
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #116 on: March 12, 2018, 10:55:53 PM »
Saccone +4
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #117 on: March 12, 2018, 11:04:48 PM »
Lamb by 2

Here would be my probability range
Lamb 5+ 5%
Lamb 3-4.99 15%
Lamb 1-2.99 30%
Lamb less then 1 10%
Saccone less then 1 10%
Saccone 1-2.99 15%
Saccone 3-4.99 10%
Saccone 5+ 10%
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #118 on: March 12, 2018, 11:21:42 PM »
« Edited: March 13, 2018, 10:19:32 AM by DTC »
Breaking down the district by county predictions:

ALLEGHENY 47% of the vote - 56/44
WESTMORELAND 31% of the vote - 45/55
WASHINGTON 20% of the vote - 49/51
GREENE 2% of the vote - 45/54
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Horus
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« Reply #119 on: March 13, 2018, 12:10:50 AM »
Final prediction - Saccone by 8
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DemocraticKing
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« Reply #120 on: March 13, 2018, 12:22:11 AM »
Quote from: DTC on March 12, 2018, 11:21:42 PM
Breaking down the district by county predictions:

ALLEGHENY 47% of the vote - 56/44
WESTMORELAND 31% of the vote - 45/55
WASHINGTON 20% of the vote - 49/51
GREENE 2% of the vote - 43/56




Everyone seems to forget Greene was the closest to Obama 08 and is more ancestrally D. I can see it voting Lamb, but it will certainly match Washington if not exceed Lamb percent.
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Badger
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« Reply #121 on: March 13, 2018, 12:41:49 AM »
Quote from: DemocraticKing on March 13, 2018, 12:22:11 AM
Quote from: DTC on March 12, 2018, 11:21:42 PM
Breaking down the district by county predictions:

ALLEGHENY 47% of the vote - 56/44
WESTMORELAND 31% of the vote - 45/55
WASHINGTON 20% of the vote - 49/51
GREENE 2% of the vote - 43/56




Everyone seems to forget Greene was the closest to Obama 08 and is more ancestrally D. I can see it voting Lamb, but it will certainly match Washington if not exceed Lamb percent.

Or at least almost certainly his Westmoreland percentage.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #122 on: March 13, 2018, 05:38:59 AM »
« Edited: March 13, 2018, 07:54:34 AM by The Saint »
Conor Lamb (D): 50.0%
Rick Saccone (R): 49.0%
Drew Miller (L): 1.0%
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cp
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« Reply #123 on: March 13, 2018, 05:55:23 AM »
Saccone (R): 0%
Lamb (D): 0%
Jeb! (Jeb): 100%
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kph14
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« Reply #124 on: March 13, 2018, 06:37:20 AM »
Quote from: The Saint on March 13, 2018, 05:38:59 AM
Conor Lamb (D): 49.0%
Rick Saccone (R): 48.0%
Drew Miller (L): 1.0%
Who gets the remaining 2% ?
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