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December 14, 2019, 07:55:06 am
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  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginia)
  PA-18 Special Election Prediction
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Poll
Question: Who will win the March special election in PA-18, and by how many points?
#1
Lamb by 5-10
 
#2
Lamb 0-5
 
#3
Saccone 0-5
 
#4
Saccone by 5-10
 
#5
Saccone by 10-20
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 137

Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election Prediction  (Read 8120 times)
You're Still Going to Vote for Biden
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #75 on: March 09, 2018, 02:38:05 pm »

Waiting for the classic last minute Trafalgar poll to make my final prediction.
oh yes, the gold standard.
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mcmikk
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« Reply #76 on: March 09, 2018, 05:52:08 pm »

One part of me, sort of my gut instinct, says that Lamb will win this, but I can very easily see this being, to quote another poster, another 52-48 heart breaker like GA-06. But then again, I think Ossoff probably could have won in a political environment like this.

For now, I'm going to be optimistic and choose Lamb +0-2, but I won't hold my breath.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #77 on: March 10, 2018, 12:14:52 pm »

In my FINAL prediction, I'm going to predict a Lamb victory (he really has the momentum going for him and he's a strong candidate):

51.0% Conor Lamb (D)
48.2% Rick Saccone (R)
  0.7% Drew Miller (L)
  0.1% Write-Ins
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You're Still Going to Vote for Biden
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #78 on: March 10, 2018, 02:13:17 pm »

I was originally thinking Saccone by between 4-5, now I'm thinking Saccone by about 2.
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Incipimus iterum
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« Reply #79 on: March 10, 2018, 03:27:30 pm »

Saccone- 53
Lamb- 47
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Deranged California Suburbanite
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #80 on: March 10, 2018, 04:24:41 pm »

Go big or go home. Lamb by 6
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #81 on: March 10, 2018, 08:45:08 pm »

Saccone wins by 3.
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CityofSinners
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« Reply #82 on: March 11, 2018, 02:25:03 pm »

Saccone wins by 4-6, still a good result for democrats.
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Khristie Kreme Donuts
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« Reply #83 on: March 11, 2018, 03:23:57 pm »

Call me crazy, but fortune favors the bold, and I think maybe, just maybe, he boutta do it:

Lamb: 52%
Saccone: 46%
Libertarian: 2%

Also wouldn't be surprised by a squeaker in either's favor (or a somewhat larger Saccone win), but I think the conditions have lined up for lightning to strike. We''l find out Tuesday.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #84 on: March 11, 2018, 04:24:37 pm »

Lamb by 3
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #85 on: March 11, 2018, 04:45:06 pm »

Lamb +1.5
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Tx_Longhorn
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« Reply #86 on: March 11, 2018, 05:30:59 pm »

Lamb +2.3
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #87 on: March 11, 2018, 08:26:05 pm »

To be a little more exact:

Conor Lamb (D) - 99,340, 50.87%
Rick Saccone (R) - 94,692, 48.49%
Drew Gray Miller (L)/Write-Ins: - 1,250, 0.64%

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Temporarily Embarrassed Millionaire
weatherboy1102
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« Reply #88 on: March 11, 2018, 08:29:19 pm »

Conor Lamb: 50.02%
Rick Saccone: 49.43%
Others: 0.55%

Lamb gets a majority of around 100 votes, but beats Saccone by several thousand.
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Ses
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« Reply #89 on: March 11, 2018, 08:35:10 pm »

Lamb +2.4
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #90 on: March 12, 2018, 11:41:19 am »



A question to ponder. I lean towards it being spin because the NRCC has shown itself to be masterful at this expectation-settings game before, but I do think internal numbers aren't good for Saccone based on the sheer volume of "GOP panic!" articles.
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VPH
vivaportugalhabs
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« Reply #91 on: March 12, 2018, 12:07:10 pm »

Saccone by 1.7
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Torranski
Torrain
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« Reply #92 on: March 12, 2018, 12:42:23 pm »

Lamb by 1.4
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DTC
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« Reply #93 on: March 12, 2018, 12:43:39 pm »

Lamb + 2
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PA is Lean D
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #94 on: March 12, 2018, 12:51:20 pm »

Lamb +3 or +4
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #95 on: March 12, 2018, 12:52:29 pm »

Saccone +2
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Xing
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« Reply #96 on: March 12, 2018, 12:55:05 pm »

Now Iíll say Lamb wins 50-48.
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Badger
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« Reply #97 on: March 12, 2018, 01:25:05 pm »

I was waiting for the final Monmouth poll. At this point I'll say Lamb by 0 to 5 Points. On fact, I would say there is an ever so slightly higher chance of lamb exceeding a five point margin than there is of Saccone winning.
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TG
texasgurl24
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« Reply #98 on: March 12, 2018, 01:32:03 pm »

Saccone +3
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Devout Centrist
Atlas Politician
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« Reply #99 on: March 12, 2018, 01:45:11 pm »

Lamb by 6
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