PA-18 Special Election Prediction (user search)
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  PA-18 Special Election Prediction (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Who will win the March special election in PA-18, and by how many points?
#1
Lamb by 5-10		  
#2
Lamb 0-5		  
#3
Saccone 0-5		  
#4
Saccone by 5-10		  
#5
Saccone by 10-20		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 138

Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election Prediction  (Read 11941 times)
LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« on: January 18, 2018, 10:18:38 AM »
I said Saccone by 10-20, specifically Saccone +15. The generic ballot is at about +6 for Democrats, so they should outperform Clinton who lost by 19 in this district. However, factoring in that 1) Polling and demographics say that Trump has retained his approval in this district better than the nation, 2) Republicans are outspending Lamb, 3) I believe the generic ballot will continue to collapse for Democrats into March along with Trump's approval rising, therefore Saccone +15.

Of course, my assumptions about the generic ballot trend could be completely wrong and I'm interested in hearing other's opinions.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #1 on: March 06, 2018, 11:36:10 PM »
« Edited: March 07, 2018, 06:54:34 AM by Brittain33 »
I voted Saccone by 8+.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2018, 09:58:39 PM »
Might have to revise my prediction - articles from CNN and politico have GOP strategists saying Lamb is going to win. Might be concern trolling a la GA-06, but still will be closer than Saccone +8.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #3 on: March 12, 2018, 11:41:19 AM »


A question to ponder. I lean towards it being spin because the NRCC has shown itself to be masterful at this expectation-settings game before, but I do think internal numbers aren't good for Saccone based on the sheer volume of "GOP panic!" articles.
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