Who would be the upper-middle class suburbanites that vote for Sanders in GE?
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  Who would be the upper-middle class suburbanites that vote for Sanders in GE?
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Author Topic: Who would be the upper-middle class suburbanites that vote for Sanders in GE?  (Read 548 times)
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bronz4141
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« on: January 18, 2018, 04:08:52 PM »

Who would be the upper middle class suburbanites who vote for potential 2020 Democratic presidential nominee Bernie Sanders in the 2020 general election?

NOVA? (Northern Virginia suburbs)
St. Louis suburbs? (St. Charles County, etc.)
Orange County, Calif.?
New York suburbs?
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PoliticalShelter
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« Reply #1 on: January 18, 2018, 04:16:05 PM »

I'd presume he would quite easily win upscale voters who had already been voting for the Democrats before Trump.

As for the Romeny-Clinton voters, I'm going to presume that they will not be voting Trump in 2020. If Sanders campaigns well he should quite easily keep these voters. If he ends up running a dumpster fire campaign, those voters will probably vote for some third party/Indy candidate.
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #2 on: January 18, 2018, 04:19:02 PM »

None, they'll back President Mike Pence.
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Joey1996
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« Reply #3 on: January 18, 2018, 05:02:36 PM »

Orange County voting Democratic was an anomaly and won't Halen again anytime soon.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #4 on: January 18, 2018, 06:27:06 PM »

Orange County voting Democratic was an anomaly and won't Halen again anytime soon.
I disagree.
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Burke859
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« Reply #5 on: January 18, 2018, 06:34:30 PM »

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Do Dems remember what it was like before Bill Clinton moderated his party in 1992 to essentially make it pro-money and pro-getting rich? 

Dukakis, who probably wasn't any more liberal than John Kerry by modern standards, lost over 400 electoral votes, and lost all the high income states like NJ and CA, because those upper middle class voters were worried that a Democratic president meant an inherent trend towards higher taxes and a muted ability to do well financially.

Sanders' nomination would be a throwback to the pre-Clinton days for Democrats at the presidential level.  It would be an interesting hypothetical to see what would happen, but at the very least, Dems are gambling a bunch of affluent purple states on a candidate who will probably practically give the country the same policies as one of their more centrist candidates.  At the end of the day, is Bernie really going to get a more liberal agenda through Congress than Biden would?
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cvparty
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« Reply #6 on: January 18, 2018, 06:37:32 PM »

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Do Dems remember what it was like before Bill Clinton moderated his party in 1992 to essentially make it pro-money and pro-getting rich? 

Dukakis, who probably wasn't any more liberal than John Kerry by modern standards, lost over 400 electoral votes, and lost all the high income states like NJ and CA, because those upper middle class voters were worried that a Democratic president meant an inherent trend towards higher taxes and a muted ability to do well financially.

Sanders' nomination would be a throwback to the pre-Clinton days for Democrats at the presidential level.  It would be an interesting hypothetical to see what would happen, but at the very least, Dems are gambling a bunch of affluent purple states on a candidate who will probably practically give the country the same policies as one of their more centrist candidates.  At the end of the day, is Bernie really going to get a more liberal agenda through Congress than Biden would?
it's not 1988 anymore...
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PoliticalShelter
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« Reply #7 on: January 18, 2018, 06:54:42 PM »

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Do Dems remember what it was like before Bill Clinton moderated his party in 1992 to essentially make it pro-money and pro-getting rich? 

Dukakis, who probably wasn't any more liberal than John Kerry by modern standards, lost over 400 electoral votes, and lost all the high income states like NJ and CA, because those upper middle class voters were worried that a Democratic president meant an inherent trend towards higher taxes and a muted ability to do well financially.

Sanders' nomination would be a throwback to the pre-Clinton days for Democrats at the presidential level.  It would be an interesting hypothetical to see what would happen, but at the very least, Dems are gambling a bunch of affluent purple states on a candidate who will probably practically give the country the same policies as one of their more centrist candidates.  At the end of the day, is Bernie really going to get a more liberal agenda through Congress than Biden would?
Like the poster above me said its not 1988 anymore. The opponent Sanders would face is almost certainly going to be Donald Trump, who is frankly repulsive to these voters, Sanders isn't facing someone like Mitt Romney (let alone someone like George H.W Bush). As long as Sanders is the main credible opponent to Trump, he will win the bulk of the affluent Anti-Trump segment of the population.

Now if Sanders got into office and completely messed up in trying to implement his policies, then yes it's quite probable that there would be a backlash amongst wealthy educated voters against Sanders, as Trump is now experiencing. But that's not the scenario being asked here.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #8 on: January 18, 2018, 06:56:32 PM »

I feel like people don't realize that the most liberal people in the democratic party skew white, highly educated (57% educated) and richer on average (close to 100,000 in median salary). It's miniorities and poorer white people that are more moderate.

There's a reason a wealthy and educated Virginia district in NOVA voted for a socialist by 10%...
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« Reply #9 on: January 18, 2018, 06:59:00 PM »

Orange County voting Democratic was an anomaly and won't Halen again anytime soon.
I disagree.


If Bernie type dems take over the Dem , Orange County wont vote dem again anytime soon.
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jfern
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« Reply #10 on: January 18, 2018, 07:04:51 PM »

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Do Dems remember what it was like before Bill Clinton moderated his party in 1992 to essentially make it pro-money and pro-getting rich? 

Dukakis, who probably wasn't any more liberal than John Kerry by modern standards, lost over 400 electoral votes, and lost all the high income states like NJ and CA, because those upper middle class voters were worried that a Democratic president meant an inherent trend towards higher taxes and a muted ability to do well financially.

Sanders' nomination would be a throwback to the pre-Clinton days for Democrats at the presidential level.  It would be an interesting hypothetical to see what would happen, but at the very least, Dems are gambling a bunch of affluent purple states on a candidate who will probably practically give the country the same policies as one of their more centrist candidates.  At the end of the day, is Bernie really going to get a more liberal agenda through Congress than Biden would?

Dukakis would have won with the 2012 demographics, so it's really irrelevant to mention him.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #11 on: January 18, 2018, 07:44:57 PM »

Orange County voting Democratic was an anomaly and won't Halen again anytime soon.
I disagree.


If Bernie type dems take over the Dem , Orange County wont vote dem again anytime soon.
That's true, but I don't think Bernie types will take over.
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PoliticalShelter
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« Reply #12 on: January 18, 2018, 07:55:32 PM »

I feel like people don't realize that the most liberal people in the democratic party skew white, highly educated (57% educated) and richer on average (close to 100,000 in median salary). It's miniorities and poorer white people that are more moderate.


Pew Political Typology is complete nonsense.

But at the end of the day the reason people like Mark Kirk, Charlie Baker and Bruce Rauner managed to actually win, was by winning these Upscale white democrats. They didn't win by winning over self-described "Conservative" black democrats.

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Probably because he was the Democrats' candidate in that district and those voters are really angry at Trump and want to register their anger at the voting booth.

I'm fairly certain the Democrats could of ran Mr Monopoly and still won the district by 10%.
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #13 on: January 20, 2018, 01:21:30 AM »

Blaxicasians.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #14 on: January 20, 2018, 12:19:30 PM »

Orange County voting Democratic was an anomaly and won't Halen again anytime soon.
I disagree.


If Bernie type dems take over the Dem , Orange County wont vote dem again anytime soon.

Orange County flipping has much more to do with the fact that it is becoming majority minority than with the movement among upper scale whites.
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YE
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« Reply #15 on: January 20, 2018, 12:24:58 PM »

Orange County flipping has much more to do with the fact that it is becoming majority minority than with the movement among upper scale whites.

This. The suburbs have changed demographically since 1988. Granted, there'd certainty be swings against Sanders among white suburban voters in that case, but to what extent, I don't know.
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