2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original  (Read 204711 times)
Brittain33
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« on: January 18, 2018, 09:33:12 PM »
« edited: June 27, 2018, 11:04:50 AM by Brittain33 »
National, state, and district polls

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1 on: January 18, 2018, 09:54:36 PM »
Can this be the house polling thread too? Like 2018 "Congressional Generic/House Polls"? So we can put district polls in here when they start trickling out.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #2 on: January 18, 2018, 09:59:56 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on January 18, 2018, 09:54:36 PM
Can this be the house polling thread too? Like 2018 "Congressional Generic/House Polls"? So we can put district polls in here when they start trickling out.

Good idea. I'll update the title.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #3 on: January 18, 2018, 10:16:05 PM »
Just to start off the new thread, here are the 5 latest generic ballot polls in the 538 database.  Some of these may have been reported in the other thread, but I don't think they all were.

Pew Research, Jan 10-15, 1215 RV       D 53, R 39 (D+14)
Ipsos/Reuters, Jan 11-15, 1299 RV       D 41, R 35 (D+6)
Morning Consult, Jan 11-16, 1993 RV    D 41, R 38 (D+3)
Quinnipiac, Jan 12-16, 1212 RV            D 50, R 39 (D+11)
YouGov, Jan 14-16, 1309 RV                D 42, R 36 (D+6)

Current 538 average: D 47.5, R 39.3 (D+8.2)
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: January 19, 2018, 08:15:53 AM »
LA Times/USC (National):

Democrats 51%
Republicans 40%

Source
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: January 19, 2018, 09:21:41 AM »
Probably going to get a Generic Ballot poll later today from NBC/Wall Street Journal.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #6 on: January 19, 2018, 05:13:39 PM »
Another live caller poll showing Democrats are not winning the generic ballot enough to win the house.

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/954476501965164544

NBC/WSJ 1/19
 
D+6 (-5)
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henster
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« Reply #7 on: January 19, 2018, 05:19:36 PM »
I think 4-6 is enough.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #8 on: January 19, 2018, 05:25:31 PM »
Live caller polls released in the past few days:

Qpac: D+11 (-6)
Marist: D+6 (-7)
NBC/WSJ: D+6 (-5)
Pew: D+14 (no prior poll)

That's a collapse if I've ever seen one.
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« Reply #9 on: January 19, 2018, 05:25:56 PM »
>D+14
>Collapse
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #10 on: January 19, 2018, 05:27:08 PM »

3/4 polls had Democrats losing 5-7 points. Collapse.
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Holmes
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« Reply #11 on: January 19, 2018, 05:27:28 PM »
It's gonna be a long 10 months if you overreact to everyone movement in the GCB polls.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: January 19, 2018, 05:30:49 PM »
I’ve seen anywhere between 4-8 points as necessary to retake the House. Average is better than that now.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #13 on: January 19, 2018, 05:33:40 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on January 19, 2018, 05:27:28 PM
It's gonna be a long 10 months if you overreact to everyone movement in the GCB polls.

Josh Kraushaar speculates that the movement to Rs is a result of the incredible economy and the tax cut allowing Rs to take credit for it.

If that's true, their average standing will only improve going into November as the economy keeps growing.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: January 19, 2018, 05:44:51 PM »
Imagine if the GCB actually did end up as D+11, and we get LimoLiberal posting about how it's a disaster that Democrats only picked up 50 seats instead of the 100 they could've gotten if not for the tax reform bump. Cry
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super6646
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« Reply #15 on: January 19, 2018, 05:46:00 PM »
Still too early. Good god people think shifts in either direction will matter much in November. Right now, 538 and RCP have the dems up by 8 points in the generic ballot, but I'm certain it'll be a different story in a few weeks, let alone November.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: January 19, 2018, 06:00:16 PM »
Quote from: super6646 on January 19, 2018, 05:46:00 PM
Still too early. Good god people think shifts in either direction will matter much in November. Right now, 538 and RCP have the dems up by 8 points in the generic ballot, but I'm certain it'll be a different story in a few weeks, let alone November.

Unfortunately, logical posts like this are ignored here. Good try though. Wink
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #17 on: January 20, 2018, 08:27:09 AM »
Ipsos/Reuters, Jan 14-18, 1261 RV

D 42 (+1)
R 36 (nc)
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Pericles
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« Reply #18 on: January 20, 2018, 08:30:16 AM »

HUGE SURGE!
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #19 on: January 20, 2018, 08:35:40 AM »
Quote from: super6646 on January 19, 2018, 05:46:00 PM
Still too early. Good god people think shifts in either direction will matter much in November. Right now, 538 and RCP have the dems up by 8 points in the generic ballot, but I'm certain it'll be a different story in a few weeks, let alone November.

+100. Exactly my thoughts too. That's exactly the reason why i don't make any final predictions until 1 month before election day.
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Vega
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« Reply #20 on: January 21, 2018, 08:44:33 AM »
http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/21/politics/cnn-poll-midterm-elections-generic-congressional/index.html
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Brittain33
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« Reply #21 on: January 21, 2018, 08:46:59 AM »

D: 49%
R: 44%
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Vega
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« Reply #22 on: January 21, 2018, 08:55:13 AM »

Thanks for actually formatting that.

Not sure why CNN is running with at as a bad number for Dems.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #23 on: January 21, 2018, 09:10:51 AM »

It's a bad trend for D's relative to previous CNN polls.  Their last two results were D+18 in December and D+11 in November.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #24 on: January 21, 2018, 10:14:50 AM »
The last poll (pre-tax reform) was:
D:56
R: 38

Democrats lost 7 points, Republicans gained 6 points.
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