2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[IceSpear]

He’s such a ing hack

https://twitter.com/seantrende/status/1004735088180031490?s=21

Is he daft? The entire narrative was based on low quality internet polls. Why doesn't he just admit he got burned and try to be more objective in the future?

You'd also think RCP of all places would be less quick to jump to conclusions and place heavy value on the notoriously noisy and inaccurate generic ballot polls, considering their own site had Democrats leading it at this point in 2010 and 2014.

[Landslide Lyndon]

He’s such a ing hack

https://twitter.com/seantrende/status/1004735088180031490?s=21

Is he daft? The entire narrative was based on low quality internet polls. Why doesn't he just admit he got burned and try to be more objective in the future?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

To be quite frank, the Democrats need to find a better leader than Pelosi.

Pelosi is a very effective leader who is unpopular. We'll have to see if she has the votes to be Speaker—that's going to resolve it one way or another. (And if Dems are a minority, she definitely steps down.)

I'd go a step farther and say she is unpopular precisely *because* she is effective.

Isn't it funny how all these reporters and analysts notice only the unpopularity or females politicians?

You forgot black. Obama's 46% approval rating in 2010 was "anemic." Trump's 42% approval rating in 2018 makes him "popular." lol

[President Johnson]

To be quite frank, the Democrats need to find a better leader than Pelosi.

Pelosi is a very effective leader who is unpopular. We'll have to see if she has the votes to be Speaker—that's going to resolve it one way or another. (And if Dems are a minority, she definitely steps down.)

I'd go a step farther and say she is unpopular precisely *because* she is effective.

Isn't it funny how all these reporters and analysts notice only the unpopularity or females politicians?

You forgot black. Obama's 46% approval rating in 2010 was "anemic." Trump's 42% approval rating in 2018 makes him "popular." lol

It's obviously a double stanard here, but Trump was never net positive during his presidency (in the average). Obama came from 65-69% honeymoon in early 2009.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1004839028531884034

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1004839028531884034

Fancy that.

[Politician]

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1004839028531884034

Fancy that.

[Gass3268]

Fox News Poll:

48% Democrats (+2)
39% Republicans (-2)

Source

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[Virginiá]

Look at these terrible polls for Democrats. When are we going to get less of this trash and more of gold standard Rasmussen?

[KingSweden]

Fox News Poll:

48% Democrats (+2)
39% Republicans (-2)

Source

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Limo came like the wind, like the wind trolled everyone, and like the wind was wrong.

[Gass3268]

What's interesting is in a lot of these polls is that both Trump AND Democrats are improving.

[LimoLiberal]

What's interesting is in a lot of these polls is that both Trump AND Democrats are improving.

[Devout Centrist]

What's interesting is in a lot of these polls is that both Trump AND Democrats are improving.

Not really; his approvals are still stuck in the mid-40’s. Marginally, they're better, but he’s still not in the positive range.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What's interesting is in a lot of these polls is that both Trump AND Democrats are improving.

Not really; his approvals are still stuck in the mid-40’s. Marginally, they're better, but he’s still not in the positive range.

True, but the movement in several recent polls has been what he described.  It is interesting.

[KingSweden]

What's interesting is in a lot of these polls is that both Trump AND Democrats are improving.

Not really; his approvals are still stuck in the mid-40’s. Marginally, they're better, but he’s still not in the positive range.

True, but the movement in several recent polls has been what he described.  It is interesting.

Movement that I’m sure is of cold comfort to the Hill GOP, as the GCB atrophies for them again.

[LimoLiberal]

What's interesting is in a lot of these polls is that both Trump AND Democrats are improving.

Not really; his approvals are still stuck in the mid-40’s. Marginally, they're better, but he’s still not in the positive range.

Lol what is this spin? His approvals were 37-39 for basically all of late last year. Now an average of three high quality live caller polls has him at 44. That is a significant and substantial improvement, especially considering how narrow the range of his approvals have been thus far. Of course he's not in the positive range, but every point of approval he gains has significant implications for November and you can't dismiss a 6 point gain as "marginal".

[Gass3268]

What's interesting is in a lot of these polls is that both Trump AND Democrats are improving.

Not really; his approvals are still stuck in the mid-40’s. Marginally, they're better, but he’s still not in the positive range.

I'm not saying their good, because they're not. Every President with approvals close to what Trump has now have had crap midterms. However, I just find it odd Trump and Congressional Republicans are going in opposite directions. it's not just one poll showing this.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Dems up 8 in 538

[Yank2133]

lol at all these polls after listening to conservatives concern troll democrats the last couple of weeks.

[Gass3268]

Also from NBC/Wall Street Journal:

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Also from NBC/Wall Street Journal:

Democrats didn't end up turning out that well in 2006, though. They just landslided among independents.

And while the 2014 dem enthusiasm was about the same as 2010, dems turned out way worse in 2014 than 2010 (2010 wave was more independents massively going GOP... dems turned out *okay* in 2010).

I think the enthusiasm question is honestly not helpful at all for figuring out turnout. My theory is that dems will have a 2-3 pt dem favored turnout gap in places where their base skews old (rural white midwest generally), and a 1-2 pt gop favored turnout gap in places where their base skews very very young (Orange County, Suburban TX)

College educated white dems will turn out very well... miniorities will probably have a bit lower turnout (specifically Latinos who skew younger than other races).

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

RCP has yet to enter the Fox Poll...

They won’t hesitate to enter Trashy Rassy’s though.

[McGovernForPrez]

RCP has yet to enter the Fox Poll...

They won’t hesitate to enter Trashy Rassy’s though.

I don't know why anybody even follows RCP. Their averages are known to suck.

[Gass3268]

Next Monmouth house district poll will be the OH-12 special election:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1005106649605070849

[KingSweden]

Next Monmouth house district poll will be the OH-12 special election:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1005106649605070849

I’ll presuke a narrow R lead in all but their Dem surge model