2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Brittain33]

The reason that Democrats will vote at a greater rate this year is that they hate or dislike Trump as much as Republicans hated or disliked Obama or would have hated or disliked Hillary. 

It helps that Trump has alienated the majority of Independents and a small number of Republicans, too. On the other hand, lots of Republicans seem unusually jazzed about Trump's governing philosophy.

[Virginiá]

I just think it's a shame that it took DONALD TRUMP becoming PRESIDENT to get people motivated enough to vote. Let that sink in for moment: DONALD TRUMP as PRESIDENT.

Reagan should have been enough. The right-wing revolution of 1994 should have been enough. The Bushes should have been enough. The Tea Party should have been enough. But no. It took DONALD TRUMP.

You were not motivated in 2008 when songs of worship were written in behalf of Obama and when he claimed he would heal the seas? I do not believe it.

I thought Democrats were motivated in 2006, too.  So don’t belly ache and whine. You’ve gotten your share of victories.
Mavbe if you had not sacrificed your party to the Clintons.  To have Hillary you were willing to give up,the Presidency and the courts.

There wasn't really any other option. Clinton cleared the field before the primary even started. The people who did run were token challengers and an incredibly authentic septuagenarian whose candidacy led left a major mark on the left/Democratic Party, but who also at the time seemed like, to me anyway, would have had their own oppo issues should he win the nomination.

If we could re-run 2016 under a scenario where any Democrat that ran would win, I'd still go with Bernie. Not nearly everyone who supported Clinton in the primary did so out of love or admiration for her.

[136or142]

Who thought PA-10 was safe R? lol

Lol right? Obama got 49% in 2008 and Trump only got 52%. This could be a reach seat.

Last time I checked though George Scott's fundraising wasn't all that great.  So, I think that's why this result is a surprise.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Who thought PA-10 was safe R? lol

Lol right? Obama got 49% in 2008 and Trump only got 52%. This could be a reach seat.

Last time I checked though George Scott's fundraising wasn't all that great.  So, I think that's why this result is a surprise.

He won the primary despite being outraised by I think two of his opponents, but he also had a much higher percentage of donations from people living in the district than his primary opponents. He's a really good fit for this district, and that matters.

[Predictor]

Morning Consult/Politico GCB Poll

Democrat - 43% (+5)
Republican - 38%

1994 RV, +/- 2%, conducted June 7-10

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000163-f6ef-d9aa-af77-feff2ba10000

[Gass3268]

Morning Consult/Politico GCB Poll

Democratic - 43% (+5)
Republican - 38%

1994 RV, +/- 2%, conducted June 7-10

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000163-f6ef-d9aa-af77-feff2ba10000

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democracy Corps (D), June 1-5, 1400 RV with a subsample of 518 in 12 "battleground states": AZ, CO, FL, GA, MI, MN, NV, NM, OH, PA, TN, WI

National:

D 51
R 42

Battleground states:

D 49
R 43

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GA and TN arent battleground states

[GeorgiaModerate]

TN isn't a battleground state

I don't think NM is either, but those are the ones they picked.

[ON Progressive]

Democracy Corps (D), June 1-5, 1400 RV with a subsample of 518 in 12 "battleground states": AZ, CO, FL, GA, MI, MN, NV, NM, OH, PA, TN, WI

National:

D 51
R 42

Battleground states:

D 49
R 43

That is very encouraging if Dems are up 6 in that batch of states.

[Oryxslayer]

GA and TN arent battleground states

The batch of states either have competitive governors races, or competitive senate races. So GA, TN, and NM all have a spot on the list.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GA and NM governorship Lean R and Lean D

[GeorgiaModerate]

Strictly speaking this isn't generic, but I'm not sure where else to put it:

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1007761557265186817

[136or142]

Who thought PA-10 was safe R? lol

Lol right? Obama got 49% in 2008 and Trump only got 52%. This could be a reach seat.

Last time I checked though George Scott's fundraising wasn't all that great.  So, I think that's why this result is a surprise.

He won the primary despite being outraised by I think two of his opponents, but he also had a much higher percentage of donations from people living in the district than his primary opponents. He's a really good fit for this district, and that matters.

If he doesn't pick up in fundraising he'll likely be buried by his Republican opponent.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Who thought PA-10 was safe R? lol

Lol right? Obama got 49% in 2008 and Trump only got 52%. This could be a reach seat.

Last time I checked though George Scott's fundraising wasn't all that great.  So, I think that's why this result is a surprise.

He won the primary despite being outraised by I think two of his opponents, but he also had a much higher percentage of donations from people living in the district than his primary opponents. He's a really good fit for this district, and that matters.

If he doesn't pick up in fundraising he'll likely be buried by his Republican opponent.

What do I know, I only live here

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Wellp, the Democratic collapse continues in the reuters poll

Dem: 42.4% (-1.4%)
Rep: 36.9% (+.9%)

June 10-June 14

I'm not sure how the Ds can hope to recover from this.

#redwave cc: LimoLiberal, Sean Trende

[Predictor]

OH-12 poll from JMC Analytics has Balderson at 46% and O'Connor at 35%. Trump's approval in the district is at 54%

http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Ohio-12-Executive-Summary.pdf

[BudgieForce]

Wellp, the Democratic collapse continues in the reuters poll

Dem: 42.4% (-1.4%)
Rep: 36.9% (+.9%)

June 10-June 14

I'm not sure how the Ds can hope to recover from this.

#redwave cc: LimoLiberal, Sean Trende

Reuters needs to switch to weekly updates. These massive swings are damaging their credibility.

[Ebsy]

Following daily swings in the Reuters/Ipsos poll is a traditional pastime of Atlas' least interesting posters. 

[Badger]

OH-12 poll from JMC Analytics has Balderson at 46% and O'Connor at 35%. Trump's approval in the district is at 54%

http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Ohio-12-Executive-Summary.pdf

Check out the party id of their sample though (hint: 54% Republican)

[Gass3268]

Monmouth:

Democrats 48 (-1)
Republicans 41

Essentially no change from April, even as Trump has his best numbers in over a year.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Monmouth:

Democrats 48 (-1)
Republicans 41

Essentially no change from April, even as Trump has his best numbers in over a year.

COLLAPSE!

#DemsInDisarray

Anyways, the Tax Reform bill is not helping the GOP.
Approval for the cuts is at 34%, which is down six points from April

[Gass3268]

Other points from the Monmouth Poll:
- No difference in voting preference between All Adults and Registered Voters
- Democrats have a 13 point lead in swing counties (won by either Trump or Hillary by less than 10 points)
- Democrats are winning over more Republicans (5%) and Conservatives (23%) than Republicans are Democrats (1%) and Liberals (8%)
- Republicans are winning men by 1 point, Democrats are winning women by 13 points
- Tax plan is unpopular, 34-41, with a plurality in the strongly dissapprove camp

[KingSweden]

That’s quite a gender gap.

[Gass3268]

Poll was released 28 minutes ago, let's see how long it takes RCP to put it in their average. It only took less than 45 minutes for them to put in Trump's good approval rating from Monmouth last week.