2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Yank2133]

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Is this just men in general or white men. Because if the GOP is only leading by one, then how are Democrats only up by 7?

[Gass3268]

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Is this just men in general or white men. Because if the GOP is only leading by one, then how is are Democrats only up by 7?

Men in general.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

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Is this just men in general or white men. Because if the GOP is only leading by one, then how is are Democrats only up by 7?

Men in general.

It's going to be a bloodbath in November.

[JG]

Other points from the Monmouth Poll:
- No difference in voting preference between All Adults and Registered Voters
- Democrats have a 13 point lead in swing counties (won by either Trump or Hillary by less than 10 points)
- Democrats are winning over more Republicans (5%) and Conservatives (23%) than Republicans are Democrats (1%) and Liberals (8%)
- Republicans are winning men by 1 point, Democrats are winning women by 13 points
- Tax plan is unpopular, 34-41, with a plurality in the strongly dissapprove camp

How can anyone self-identify as liberal and vote for the republicans is beyond me.

[BudgieForce]

Monmouth:

Democrats 48 (-1)
Republicans 41

Essentially no change from April, even as Trump has his best numbers in over a year.

I was gonna say, for a poll that showed Trump almost even, those are bad numbers for republicans.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Let's see more crosstabs...

18-34 year olds going for the Democrats by 16 points, 55+ going for them by 9.

Republicans winning whites by 9 points, while the Democrats are winning non-whites by 40.

[KingSweden]

Let's see more crosstabs...

18-34 year olds going for the Democrats by 16 points, 55+ going for them by 9.

Republicans winning whites by 9 points, while the Democrats are winning non-whites by 40.

Yikes none of those are good stats for the GOP

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Saw on Twitter:

Quinnipac poll has people opposing separating families at the border 66-27%

Republicans support it (shockingly) 55-35%

Such fine Christian people!

__________________________-

Democrats oppose 91-7%

Independents oppose 68-24%

Every age group has at least 60% of respondees opposing the practice.
80% of 18-34 year olds oppose it

60% of Whites oppose

88% of Blacks oppose

80% of Hispanics oppose

70% of Women oppose

61% of Men oppose

This is going to end disastrously for the GOP

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1008763694967328768

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1008763694967328768

I have a strong feeling the Dems are going to far exceed expectations on election day, just like the GOP did in 2010, and that's what the polls are showing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1008763694967328768

I have a strong feeling the Dems are going to far exceed expectations on election day, just like the GOP did in 2010, and that's what the polls are showing.

If they win OH 12, which is a bellweather, will tell if the Dems have exceeded the 273 blue wall, by winning in OH, a Lean GOP state. If they don't, then all bets are off again, and the House will be very close

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1008763694967328768

I have a strong feeling the Dems are going to far exceed expectations on election day, just like the GOP did in 2010, and that's what the polls are showing.

If they win OH 12, which is a bellweather, will tell if the Dems have exceeded the 273 blue wall, by winning in OH, a Lean GOP state. If they don't, then all bets are off again.

Lol

[Nyvin]

Cook moved VA-10 to Lean D.....Cook virtually NEVER has incumbents at anything worse than tossup.

Comstock is doomed.

http://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1008763694967328768

I have a strong feeling the Dems are going to far exceed expectations on election day, just like the GOP did in 2010, and that's what the polls are showing.

If they win OH 12, which is a bellweather, will tell if the Dems have exceeded the 273 blue wall, by winning in OH, a Lean GOP state. If they don't, then all bets are off again, and the House will be very close

So they would have exceeded the freiwal?

[ON Progressive]

Cook moved VA-10 to Lean D.....Cook virtually NEVER has incumbents at anything worse than tossup.

Comstock is doomed.

http://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

Yup. I'm tempted to call that seat Likely D at this point.

KY-06 was also moved to Tossup by them, which makes them the first of the big 3 raters (Cook, Sabato, Gonzalez) to do so.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Is KY-4 moved to tossup yet?

[OneJ]

Cook moved VA-10 to Lean D.....Cook virtually NEVER has incumbents at anything worse than tossup.

Comstock is doomed.

http://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

Yup. I'm tempted to call that seat Likely D at this point.

KY-06 was also moved to Tossup by them, which makes them the first of the big 3 raters (Cook, Sabato, Gonzalez) to do so.

They should've moved KY-06 to tossup the night after primary night.

[KingSweden]

Is KY-4 moved to tossup yet?

How on earth is that even close to a Tossup?

[Badger]

Is KY-4 moved to tossup yet?

How on earth is that even close to a Tossup?

Don't count on Bandit for reality-based posts.

[Politician]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1008763694967328768

Don't let RCP and Sean Trende see this.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Is KY-4 moved to tossup yet?

How on earth is that even close to a Tossup?

How is it not?

[UncleSam]

Is KY-4 moved to tossup yet?

How on earth is that even close to a Tossup?

How is it not?

It’s an R+18 district for a start

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Is KY-4 moved to tossup yet?

How on earth is that even close to a Tossup?

How is it not?

It’s an R+18 district for a start

After the Trump debacle, will it still be?

[Ebsy]

Candidate quality matters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1008763694967328768

I have a strong feeling the Dems are going to far exceed expectations on election day, just like the GOP did in 2010, and that's what the polls are showing.

If they win OH 12, which is a bellweather, will tell if the Dems have exceeded the 273 blue wall, by winning in OH, a Lean GOP state. If they don't, then all bets are off again, and the House will be very close

So they would have exceeded the freiwal?

Yes, but NRA and gun rights, have solidified the polarization that played out in 2016