2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[UncleSam]

Is KY-4 moved to tossup yet?

How on earth is that even close to a Tossup?

How is it not?

It’s an R+18 district for a start

After the Trump debacle, will it still be?

Maybe you don’t understand how PVI works. PVI measures swing relative to the national average. Even in the scenario where Trump is so bad that Democrats win with 60 percent of the vote in 2020, so long as that swing is constant, KY-4 will continue to be R+18.

In other words, you need to believe that Democrats will outperform partisan expectations by 36 points to win in KY-4. Candidate quality does matter and local influences can have weird impacts on some races, but that is a mountain to climb for the minority party no matter the environment.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Why would a Trump + 11 seat be a bellweather when Hillary won by 2, and the average seat is only 2.1 points to the right of Hillary's results.

Sure, it's an open seat, but Balderson seems like a better candidate than O'Connor.

[Dr. Arch]

Link: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Montana_June_2018.pdf

Williams (D): 49
Gianforte (R): 43

469 LV; June 11-13

[ON Progressive]

Didn't expect this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news

[Panda Express]

No worries - once Gianforte piledrives a journalist, the Republicans will rally behind him

[PragmaticPopulist]

>Gravis

To be fair, I want to see another poll of MT-AL by a different pollster before I come to the conclusion that Gianforte is in this much trouble.

[Young Conservative]

>Gravis

To be fair, I want to see another poll of MT-AL by a different pollster before I come to the conclusion that Gianforte is in this much trouble.

[KingSweden]

Hey maybe MT was right and there really aren’t that many Tester/WWE voters

[Politician]

>Gravis

To be fair, I want to see another poll of MT-AL by a different pollster before I come to the conclusion that Gianforte is in this much trouble.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

>Gravis

To be fair, I want to see another poll of MT-AL by a different pollster before I come to the conclusion that Gianforte is in this much trouble.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Link: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Montana_June_2018.pdf

Williams (D): 49
Gianforte (R): 43

469 LV; June 11-13

So this is from the same poll that has Tester up 7. That makes me doubt whether Tester being up 7 there is really accurate, as they seem to have basically the same number for MT-AL.

One would expect probably more ticket splitting in this race.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Link: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Montana_June_2018.pdf

Williams (D): 49
Gianforte (R): 43

469 LV; June 11-13

So this is from the same poll that has Tester up 7. That makes me doubt whether Tester being up 7 there is really accurate, as they seem to have basically the same number for MT-AL.

One would expect probably more ticket splitting in this race.

Tester has to be up by at least 10.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Link: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Montana_June_2018.pdf

Williams (D): 49
Gianforte (R): 43

469 LV; June 11-13

Pretty good.

[MT Treasurer]

Pretty good.

Imagine believing those numbers and still predicting that Heitkamp will lose by 8.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Pretty good.

Imagine believing those numbers and still predicting that Heitkamp will lose by 8.

I still think Greg wins by a couple points, so...

[GeorgiaModerate]

DCCC internal polls:

https://twitter.com/CahnEmily/status/1009098292213534720

TX-7: Culbertson (R) 47, Fletcher (D) 45
PA-10: Perry (R) 45, Scott (D) 41
VA-10: Wexton (D) 46, Comstock (R) 43
NC-9: McCready (D) 44, Harris (R) 43
NY-22: Brindisi (D) 50, Tenney (R) 44
PA-1: Fitzpatrick (R) 48, Wallace (D) 46
NM-2: Herrell (R) 45, Torres Small (D) 45
NJ-3: Kim (D) 50, MacArthur (R) 44
CA-39: Kim (R) 45, Cisneros (D) 43
KY-6: McGrath (D) 52, Barr (R) 37

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

DCCC internal polls:

https://twitter.com/CahnEmily/status/1009098292213534720

TX-7: Culbertson (R) 47, Fletcher (D) 45
PA-10: Perry (R) 45, Scott (D) 41
VA-10: Wexton (D) 46, Comstock (R) 43
NC-9: McCready (D) 44, Harris (R) 43
NY-22: Brindisi (D) 50, Tenney (R) 44
PA-1: Fitzpatrick (R) 48, Wallace (D) 46
NM-2: Herrell (R) 45, Torres Small (D) 45
NJ-3: Kim (D) 50, MacArthur (R) 44
CA-39: Kim (R) 45, Cisneros (D) 43
KY-6: McGrath (D) 52, Barr (R) 37

Pretty believable except it is 45-43 for R's in NM 2nd, and Andy Kim will lose badly.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Obligatory disclaimer that these are internals.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos, June 14-18, 1615 RV

D 43 (-1)
R 35 (-1)

No net change.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Tenney is DOA

McGrath's chances are north of 80%

The New Jersey delegation is looking likelier to have only one Republican.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Tenney is DOA


McGrath's chances are north of 80%

McGrath is probably likely to win but no way she wins by 15 points or more.
Again, this is an internal.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Tenney is DOA


McGrath's chances are north of 80%

McGrath is probably likely to win but no way she wins by 15 points or more.
Again, this is an internal.

True, but the DCCC polls are a lot better than most other pollsters.

[Brittain33]

Tenney is DOA

McGrath's chances are north of 80%

The New Jersey delegation is looking likelier to have only one Republican.

I haven't seen good evidence that Lance is going down.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Tenney is DOA

McGrath's chances are north of 80%

The New Jersey delegation is looking likelier to have only one Republican.

I haven't seen good evidence that Lance is going down.

I've seen good evidence that Lance is going down.