2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original  (Read 205006 times)
American2020
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« Reply #2250 on: June 19, 2018, 03:32:26 PM »
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Doimper
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« Reply #2251 on: June 19, 2018, 05:36:27 PM »
Looking forward to this one:
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #2252 on: June 19, 2018, 06:27:55 PM »
Quote from: Doctor Imperialism on June 19, 2018, 05:36:27 PM
Looking forward to this one:
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OneJ
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« Reply #2253 on: June 19, 2018, 06:39:29 PM »
Quote from: Doctor Imperialism on June 19, 2018, 05:36:27 PM
Looking forward to this one:



Great! I'm especially interested in WV-03, but I'm not very worried about Manchin though.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #2254 on: June 19, 2018, 07:36:38 PM »
Quote from: Vox Populi on June 19, 2018, 08:29:47 AM
No worries - once Gianforte piledrives a journalist, the Republicans will rally behind him
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2255 on: June 19, 2018, 07:41:06 PM »
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on June 19, 2018, 07:36:38 PM
Quote from: Vox Populi on June 19, 2018, 08:29:47 AM
No worries - once Gianforte piledrives a journalist, the Republicans will rally behind him

Do we get to pick the journalist?
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Doimper
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« Reply #2256 on: June 19, 2018, 10:20:19 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on June 19, 2018, 07:41:06 PM
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on June 19, 2018, 07:36:38 PM
Quote from: Vox Populi on June 19, 2018, 08:29:47 AM
No worries - once Gianforte piledrives a journalist, the Republicans will rally behind him

Do we get to pick the journalist?

We should start a gofundme with the goal of flying Chris Cilizza out to Montana.
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Person Man
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« Reply #2257 on: June 20, 2018, 09:42:41 AM »
Quote from: Doctor Imperialism on June 19, 2018, 10:20:19 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on June 19, 2018, 07:41:06 PM
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on June 19, 2018, 07:36:38 PM
Quote from: Vox Populi on June 19, 2018, 08:29:47 AM
No worries - once Gianforte piledrives a journalist, the Republicans will rally behind him

Do we get to pick the journalist?

We should start a gofundme with the goal of flying Chris Cilizza out to Montana.

The Gianforte Grapple can only be countered by a Full Nelson.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2258 on: June 20, 2018, 11:40:58 AM »
YouGov, June 17-19, 1272 registered voters

D 44 (+1)
R 37 (nc)
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #2259 on: June 20, 2018, 11:52:44 AM »
In 2010, Republicans started running away in the Generic Ballot in July. I wonder if we're seeing something similar happen now.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #2260 on: June 20, 2018, 11:56:55 AM »
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on June 20, 2018, 11:52:44 AM
In 2010, Republicans started running away in the Generic Ballot in July. I wonder if we're seeing something similar happen now.

What does THE CHART say?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2261 on: June 20, 2018, 11:59:18 AM »
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on June 20, 2018, 11:52:44 AM
In 2010, Republicans started running away in the Generic Ballot in July. I wonder if we're seeing something similar happen now.

The 538 average is still only D+7.8, which is in the ballpark of where it's been for the last couple of months (not counting the brief Ipsos-induced weirdness).  If it opens up to D+10 or so, then I'll think we may be seeing something similar.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2262 on: June 20, 2018, 12:04:31 PM »
Several NM house polls by Carroll Strategies:

U.S. Congress CD 1:

Democrat Debra Haaland – 47%
Republican Janice Arnold-Jones – 42.7%
Libertarian Lloyd Princeton – 3.6%
Undecided – 6.7%

U.S. Congress CD 2:

Republican Yvette Harrell – 48.5%
Democrat Xochitl Torres Small – 34.7%
Undecided - 16.8%

U.S. Congress CD 3:

Democrat Ben Ray Lujan – 58%
Republcan Jerald Steve McFall – 30%
Libertarian Christopher Mannin – 4.7%
Undecided – 7.2%

Plus:

Governor:

Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham – 50.5%
Republican Steve Pearce – 42.1%
Libertarian Bob Walsh – 3.1%
Undecided – 4.3%

U.S. Senate:

Democrat Martin Heinrich – 49.8%
Republican Mick Rich – 39.3%
Libertarian Lloyd Princeton – 3.6%
Undecided – 6.7%

https://www.kob.com/politics-news/poll-lujan-grisham-leads-pearce-in-race-for-governor/4956518/
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2263 on: June 20, 2018, 12:05:31 PM »
Quote from: KingSweden on June 20, 2018, 11:56:55 AM
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on June 20, 2018, 11:52:44 AM
In 2010, Republicans started running away in the Generic Ballot in July. I wonder if we're seeing something similar happen now.

What does THE CHART say?

IIRC it says pretty much that. But the in party gets a boost after Labor Day, so be prepared for a lot of hand-wringing in September.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #2264 on: June 20, 2018, 12:06:03 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on June 20, 2018, 12:04:31 PM
Several NM house polls by Carroll Strategies:

U.S. Congress CD 1:

Democrat Debra Haaland – 47%
Republican Janice Arnold-Jones – 42.7%
Libertarian Lloyd Princeton – 3.6%
Undecided – 6.7%

U.S. Congress CD 2:

Republican Yvette Harrell – 48.5%
Democrat Xochitl Torres Small – 34.7%
Undecided - 16.8%

U.S. Congress CD 3:

Democrat Ben Ray Lujan – 58%
Republcan Jerald Steve McFall – 30%
Libertarian Christopher Mannin – 4.7%
Undecided – 7.2%

Plus:

Governor:

Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham – 50.5%
Republican Steve Pearce – 42.1%
Libertarian Bob Walsh – 3.1%
Undecided – 4.3%

U.S. Senate:

Democrat Martin Heinrich – 49.8%
Republican Mick Rich – 39.3%
Libertarian Lloyd Princeton – 3.6%
Undecided – 6.7%

https://www.kob.com/politics-news/poll-lujan-grisham-leads-pearce-in-race-for-governor/4956518/

The NM-01 number is honestly laughable.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #2265 on: June 20, 2018, 12:18:00 PM »
Qpac went from D+7 to D+6.
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The Impartial Spectator
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« Reply #2266 on: June 20, 2018, 12:35:13 PM »
OJEDA!!!

Monmouth poll... heatcharger posted it in the Senate polls subforum (along with WV-SEN), but this sort of belongs here as well because of the house poll.


WV-3:

Ojeda 43%
Miller 41%

Standard model:

Ojeda 47%
Miller 41%

Dem surge:

Ojeda 48%
Miller 39%


Ojeda is apparently as good of a candidate as Amy McGrath.
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The Impartial Spectator
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« Reply #2267 on: June 20, 2018, 01:08:12 PM »
So if Ds could win WV-03 and every district that voted for Trump by a smaller margin than it, they would have a 420-15 majority in the House.
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Virginiα
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« Reply #2268 on: June 20, 2018, 01:09:51 PM »
Quote from: The Impartial Spectator on June 20, 2018, 01:08:12 PM
So if Ds could win WV-03 and every district that voted for Trump by a smaller margin than it, they would have a 420-15 majority in the House.

Sure, technically, but Ojeda's success is more district and candidate-specific than a sign of a D+3481921 tsunami.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2269 on: June 20, 2018, 01:10:49 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on June 20, 2018, 12:04:31 PM
Several NM house polls by Carroll Strategies:

U.S. Congress CD 1:

Democrat Debra Haaland – 47%
Republican Janice Arnold-Jones – 42.7%
Libertarian Lloyd Princeton – 3.6%
Undecided – 6.7%

U.S. Congress CD 2:

Republican Yvette Harrell – 48.5%
Democrat Xochitl Torres Small – 34.7%
Undecided - 16.8%

U.S. Congress CD 3:

Democrat Ben Ray Lujan – 58%
Republcan Jerald Steve McFall – 30%
Libertarian Christopher Mannin – 4.7%
Undecided – 7.2%

Plus:

Governor:

Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham – 50.5%
Republican Steve Pearce – 42.1%
Libertarian Bob Walsh – 3.1%
Undecided – 4.3%

U.S. Senate:

Democrat Martin Heinrich – 49.8%
Republican Mick Rich – 39.3%
Libertarian Lloyd Princeton – 3.6%
Undecided – 6.7%

https://www.kob.com/politics-news/poll-lujan-grisham-leads-pearce-in-race-for-governor/4956518/

Junk.

Decimals, and Haaland is not winning by just 4 points.
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Politician
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« Reply #2270 on: June 20, 2018, 01:11:34 PM »
OH NOES! DEMOCRATS ARE DOOMED! BLUE WAVE DEAD!
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2271 on: June 20, 2018, 01:12:06 PM »
Quote from: Virginia on June 20, 2018, 01:09:51 PM
Quote from: The Impartial Spectator on June 20, 2018, 01:08:12 PM
So if Ds could win WV-03 and every district that voted for Trump by a smaller margin than it, they would have a 420-15 majority in the House.

Sure, technically, but Ojeda's success is more district and candidate-specific than a sign of a D+3481921 tsunami.

For sure. I am only trying to put context on how anomalous it is for a Democrat to be able to win a district that Trump won by 50 points (rather a lot!).
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2272 on: June 20, 2018, 03:12:47 PM »
CNN:

Democrats 50% (+3)
Republicans 42% (-2)

Source
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2273 on: June 20, 2018, 03:34:03 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on June 20, 2018, 03:12:47 PM
CNN:

Democrats 50% (+3)
Republicans 42% (-2)

Source
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KingSweden
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« Reply #2274 on: June 20, 2018, 04:33:33 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on June 20, 2018, 03:34:03 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on June 20, 2018, 03:12:47 PM
CNN:

Democrats 50% (+3)
Republicans 42% (-2)

Source



Has anyone analyzed how enthusiasm gap effects eventual results? Like a margin bonus?
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