2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original  (Read 204862 times)
LimoLiberal
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« Reply #25 on: January 21, 2018, 10:21:43 AM »

lol I just woke up.

My real reaction to this poll:

The Democrats are not going to take the House.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #26 on: January 21, 2018, 11:30:17 AM »
Do we have any theories here? Is the shutdown repolarizing Republicans to their party? Or is there a tax cut bump for Republicans?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #27 on: January 21, 2018, 11:51:27 AM »
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Pericles
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« Reply #28 on: January 21, 2018, 11:52:27 AM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on January 21, 2018, 11:30:17 AM
Do we have any theories here? Is the shutdown repolarizing Republicans to their party? Or is there a tax cut bump for Republicans?

It's just Pelosi's tax reform bump fading(Dems surged due to tax reform despite idiotic takes that it helps the GOP).
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KingSweden
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« Reply #29 on: January 21, 2018, 11:52:53 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on January 21, 2018, 09:10:51 AM

It's a bad trend for D's relative to previous CNN polls.  Their last two results were D+18 in December and D+11 in November.

Likelier that D+18 was a crazy outlier
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Hydera
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« Reply #30 on: January 21, 2018, 11:55:46 AM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on January 21, 2018, 11:30:17 AM
Do we have any theories here? Is the shutdown repolarizing Republicans to their party? Or is there a tax cut bump for Republicans?


Tax reform made gop leaners whether its republicans who said they werent going to vote or partisan republicans claiming to be independents. Started saying they were going to vote.  Also the longer this shutdown goes on the worse it will be for congressional dems.
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Blackacre
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« Reply #31 on: January 21, 2018, 12:04:54 PM »
Our lead in the GCB is sub-7 (per 538) for the first time in a long time. Consider me very worried.
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #32 on: January 21, 2018, 12:06:09 PM »
Wow. If that trend keeps up, Republicans will be leading by 125 points in November.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #33 on: January 21, 2018, 12:09:43 PM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on January 21, 2018, 11:30:17 AM
Do we have any theories here? Is the shutdown repolarizing Republicans to their party? Or is there a tax cut bump for Republicans?

This poll was pre-shutdown.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #34 on: January 21, 2018, 12:16:29 PM »
I wouldn't get too worried over short term swings like these. The overall pattern remains very favorable for Democrats.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #35 on: January 21, 2018, 12:16:59 PM »
Folks it's January
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #36 on: January 21, 2018, 12:22:31 PM »

Another thing to consider is that CNN's results on this question have been fairly noisy.  The history since they started asking it monthly:

Aug D+9
Sep D+6
Oct D+16
Nov D+11
Dec D+18
Jan D+6

Having said that, it's clear there's been some closing of the margin on the generic ballot in the last month.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #37 on: January 21, 2018, 12:26:28 PM »
Quote from: Spenstar on January 21, 2018, 12:04:54 PM
Our lead in the GCB is sub-7 (per 538) for the first time in a long time. Consider me very worried.

Well, I'm not happy, but Dems leading the congressional ballot by 7 points is still a very good result for Dems for a midterm. It just eats through any cushion we had. Mark me down as a complete disbeliever in "trends" and extrapolation.
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Doimper
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« Reply #38 on: January 21, 2018, 12:31:09 PM »
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henster
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« Reply #39 on: January 21, 2018, 12:37:53 PM »
When was the last time either party won the GCB by double digits? Even in 2010 & 1994 it was only around +7. I think the notion that Dems have to win the House by X number is unfounded.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #40 on: January 21, 2018, 12:41:01 PM »
Quote from: DTC on January 21, 2018, 12:09:43 PM
Quote from: Brittain33 on January 21, 2018, 11:30:17 AM
Do we have any theories here? Is the shutdown repolarizing Republicans to their party? Or is there a tax cut bump for Republicans?

This poll was pre-shutdown.

Yeah but we've been in pre-shutdown Trump-vs-Schumer mode for a week....
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #41 on: January 21, 2018, 12:59:15 PM »
It's just noise created by response rates.
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henster
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« Reply #42 on: January 21, 2018, 01:24:44 PM »
I think Dems will narrowly miss taking the House, big gains in CA,PA,NY and other suburban districts but middling elsewhere notably the rust belt to get to the 210-216 range. Hopefully Pelosi will finally get the boot then.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #43 on: January 21, 2018, 01:50:42 PM »
Quote from: henster on January 21, 2018, 01:24:44 PM
I think Dems will narrowly miss taking the House, big gains in CA,PA,NY and other suburban districts but middling elsewhere notably the rust belt to get to the 210-216 range. Hopefully Pelosi will finally get the boot then.

Why, because a couple of polls 10 months out have moved back towards the incumbent party? They'll head the other direction soon enough.
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Doimper
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« Reply #44 on: January 21, 2018, 01:59:23 PM »
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on January 21, 2018, 01:50:42 PM
Quote from: henster on January 21, 2018, 01:24:44 PM
I think Dems will narrowly miss taking the House, big gains in CA,PA,NY and other suburban districts but middling elsewhere notably the rust belt to get to the 210-216 range. Hopefully Pelosi will finally get the boot then.

Why, because a couple of polls 10 months out have moved back towards the incumbent party? They'll head the other direction soon enough.

Don't you know that trends in the generic ballot stay that way forever? That's why Democrats won by 30 in 2014.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #45 on: January 21, 2018, 02:12:51 PM »
Look, Folks, we live in a bubble on this site. Can we at least recognize that?
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #46 on: January 21, 2018, 02:14:18 PM »
Quote from: Devout Centrist on January 21, 2018, 02:12:51 PM
Look, Folks, we live in a bubble on this site. Can we at least recognize that?
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Pericles
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« Reply #47 on: January 21, 2018, 02:27:27 PM »
Pelosi got a YUGE bump out of tax reform, now it's taping off. Though it looks like she might get another YUGE bump, a SHUTDOWN BUMP(or SHUTDOWN SLUMP when talking about Trump & the GOP) so that could further inflate Democrat numbers.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #48 on: January 21, 2018, 02:32:35 PM »
It’s January and there’s nothing better to talk about, I guess, but the pantswetting over a wildly swingy CNN poll isn’t healthy for anyone - nor is arguing over it
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Babeuf
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« Reply #49 on: January 21, 2018, 02:57:23 PM »
Quote from: KingSweden on January 21, 2018, 02:32:35 PM
It’s January and there’s nothing better to talk about, I guess, but the pantswetting over a wildly swingy CNN poll isn’t healthy for anyone - nor is arguing over it
Yep. There's 288 days and at least 30 new Trump controversies left until the election.
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