2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[smoltchanov]

Republicans lead by only 6% in ALL of the districts they hold.

But they lead.. Of course, as distribution is very nonuniform (Republican margin in TX-13 will be far more then in NY-24),  that means that Democrats will win districts, but may be - less, then they expect. And they don't need 64-26 margin in their districts - yeah, that means, that there is minimal danger to lose substantial number of them, but it adds nothing to their numbers.

[Gustaf]

Republicans lead by only 6% in ALL of the districts they hold.

But they lead.. Of course, as distribution is very nonuniform (Republican margin in TX-13 will be far more then in NY-24),  that means that Democrats will win districts, but may be - less, then they expect. And they don't need 64-26 margin in their districts - yeah, that means, that there is minimal danger to lose substantial number of them, but it adds nothing to their numbers.

Lol, what, how dumb are you? If Republicans lead by only 6 on average in all the districts they hold, they would lose plenty. As was already pointed out, what this suggests is that about 80% of the national swing is happening in Republican districts with only about 20% happening in Democratic districts.

What was your PhD in again?

[Chief Justice Keef]

Funny how 538 hasn't updated their tracker with the ABC News poll yet. Guess they gotta keep their "what happened to teh Democratic wave" story on the front page.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Funny how 538 hasn't updated their tracker with the ABC News poll yet. Guess they gotta keep their "what happened to teh Democratic wave" story on the front page.

Nothing funny about it.  As I pointed out upthread...this poll was conducted from Jan 15-18.  The D+14 topline was reported on Jan 22 and has been included in the 538 average for some time (click "Show More Polls" because it's old enough to have fallen off the initial list).  It's only the enthusiasm gap numbers that were released later.

[junior chįmp]

Back to out regularly scheduled programming of Blue Wave Imminent!

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Back to out regularly scheduled programming of Blue Wave Imminent!

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It's interesting how similar the shapes of those two curves are.

[Holmes]

Back to out regularly scheduled programming of Blue Wave Imminent!

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It's interesting how similar the shapes of those two curves are.

Incumbent parties probably usually get a holiday bump followed by a SOTU bump near this time, then keep declining again. Then I guess a slight recovery in August (which I'm sure will make some posters here pee their pants), then more decline until most voters make up there minds near the end. Slight uptick for the incumbent party at the end from some voters coming home at the last minute.

[GeorgiaModerate]

IBD/TIPP, Jan 25-Feb 2, 900 adults

D 46, R 41 (D+5)

I don't find a previous one to compare this with.

[ltomlinson31]

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https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/960876827517571072

[Ebsy]

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https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/960876827517571072

Devastating numbers.

[KingSweden]

IBD/TIPP, Jan 25-Feb 2, 900 adults

D 46, R 41 (D+5)

I don't find a previous one to compare this with.

This is the rare poll where Congressional GOP outpolls Trump, if that’s the case

[Gass3268]

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https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/960876827517571072

Devastating numbers.

They also have re-elect numbers. Knight is confirmed DOA as we sit and Rohrabcher is in real trouble.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

[KingSweden]

I’ve never seen “inclination to vote” used before in a poll

[Holmes]

Well the swings in both seats are similar. 24% swing against Knight compared to 2016, and 27% against Rohrabacher in CA-48. All Clinton district Republicans will fall, and Nunes, Hunter and McClintock will sweat.

[Brittain33]

This isn't an apples-to-apples comparison with past elections. Incumbents always look bad in these matchups.

[Gass3268]

Another fun graph:

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, Feb 2-5, 1333 RV

D 49, R 40 (D+9)

Their previous poll was 51/38 (D+13).

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Feb 4-6, 1500 adults (1320 RV)

D 43, R 37 (D+6)

Their previous poll was 42/37 (D+5).

[KingSweden]

YouGov’s shift is basically noise, if only +1 to D’s.

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov’s shift is basically noise, if only +1 to D’s.

They have consistently been within a very narrow range on the generic ballot since the beginning of December (8 surveys).

[KingSweden]

YouGov’s shift is basically noise, if only +1 to D’s.

They have consistently been within a very narrow range on the generic ballot since the beginning of December (8 surveys).

Makes sense.

[Blackacre]

Back to out regularly scheduled programming of Blue Wave Imminent!

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It's interesting how similar the shapes of those two curves are.

Incumbent parties probably usually get a holiday bump followed by a SOTU bump near this time, then keep declining again. Then I guess a slight recovery in August (which I'm sure will make some posters here pee their pants), then more decline until most voters make up there minds near the end. Slight uptick for the incumbent party at the end from some voters coming home at the last minute.

These two shapes really are similar, just shifted about 10 points downward. If this continues, we'd be due for a House PV in 2018 just shy of D+15

[Blackacre]

Another fun graph:

....oh my god

sidenote: what happened in 1998??

[Devout Centrist]

Another fun graph:

....oh my god

sidenote: what happened in 1998??

Bill Clinton, Impeachment of