2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Doimper]

Remember remember this November when GOP is done!

https://www.twitter.com/DKElections/status/973738783941242880

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lol @ the solitary Republican district left in California

[cp]

Kudos to Griff for divining pretty much this exact scenario almost a year ago: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=264008.0

[TheRocketRaccoon]

MC/Politico: GCB D+7 (43-36)

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/14/trump-north-korea-poll-460485

[KingSweden]

Remember remember this November when GOP is done!

https://www.twitter.com/DKElections/status/973738783941242880

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I was discussing this with Marty last night - I’m not a fan of this talking point. Presuming a uniform swing across various regions, and assuming the same candidate/campaign quality, is hazardous. Even a 1/3 of those swings is about 40 seats, close to 1994-level. 1/2 is basically 2010 redux. I figure the end result, if we’re being ambitious, could be somewhere in between

[KingSweden]

Remember remember this November when GOP is done!

https://www.twitter.com/DKElections/status/973738783941242880

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I was discussing this with Marty last night - I’m not a fan of this talking point. Presuming a uniform swing across various regions, and assuming the same candidate/campaign quality, is hazardous. Even a 1/3 of those swings is about 40 seats, close to 1994-level. 1/2 is basically 2010 redux. I figure the end result, if we’re being ambitious, could be somewhere in between

I don't think anyone is actually serious in saying that Democrats have a good chance to gain 100+ districts. I interpret it more as a lay of the potential "grand battlefield" where obscure races can suddenly pop up if local factors permit them to (much as PA-18 and AL-Sen did).

Fair enough.

[I’m not Stu]

CA-39: Change Research; Kim 22, Huff 19

[Jeppe]

CA-39: Change Research; Kim 22, Huff 19

In CA-39, Republicans got 51% of the vote, Democrats got 43%.

In CA-49, Democrats got 53% of the vote, Republicans got 47%.

[King Lear]

CA-39: Change Research; Kim 22, Huff 19

Some of these Democrats need to drop out of this CA-39 race immediately or this district will be R vs. R in November. I’m not as worried about CA-49 because theirs twice as many Republicans running as Democrats and I think Applegate (or Levin) has enough support to make it into the top-two, However, it would be great for Kerr (and possibly Jacobs) to drop out today so Applegate or Levin are assured a spot in the Top-two.

[SNJ1985]

It infuriates and perplexes me that the ''enthusiasm gap'' exists. Republican voters have no logical reason to not be enthusiastic to vote. The threat of an enemy victory should make you MORE determined to vote, not less. I don't care if you're disappointed with Trump. You don't cut your nose off to spite your face, which is exactly what you are doing if you stay home because you're not completely satisfied with Trump or the Republican Congress.

There are some things that are beyond our control. This is not one of them.

[GlobeSoc]

It infuriates and perplexes me that the ''enthusiasm gap'' exists. Republican Democratic voters have no logical reason to not be enthusiastic to vote. The threat of an enemy victory should make you MORE determined to vote, not less. I don't care if you're disappointed with TrumpObama. You don't cut your nose off to spite your face, which is exactly what you are doing if you stay home because you're not completely satisfied with Trump Obama or the Republican Democratic Congress.

There are some things that are beyond our control. This is not one of them.

-Democrats in 2010

[progressive85]

It infuriates and perplexes me that the ''enthusiasm gap'' exists. Republican Democratic voters have no logical reason to not be enthusiastic to vote. The threat of an enemy victory should make you MORE determined to vote, not less. I don't care if you're disappointed with TrumpObama. You don't cut your nose off to spite your face, which is exactly what you are doing if you stay home because you're not completely satisfied with Trump Obama or the Republican Democratic Congress.

There are some things that are beyond our control. This is not one of them.

-Democrats in 2010

This is why I voted in 2010 with as much enthusiasm as I had in 2006 and 2008.  I knew the Republicans were going to win the House, though.  I just wanted to make sure that they got one less vote than they did.  That was the only thing I could control - my one vote.

Republicans will come out to vote in November, which is why Democrats need to focus on getting new voters to the polls.  If you don't like the electorate, change it.  Half of the country doesn't vote in even presidential elections.  There's a lot of potential voters out there - you need to ask them for their vote.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

It infuriates and perplexes me that the ''enthusiasm gap'' exists. Republican Democratic voters have no logical reason to not be enthusiastic to vote. The threat of an enemy victory should make you MORE determined to vote, not less. I don't care if you're disappointed with TrumpObama. You don't cut your nose off to spite your face, which is exactly what you are doing if you stay home because you're not completely satisfied with Trump Obama or the Republican Democratic Congress.

There are some things that are beyond our control. This is not one of them.

-Democrats in 2010

This is why I voted in 2010 with as much enthusiasm as I had in 2006 and 2008.  I knew the Republicans were going to win the House, though.  I just wanted to make sure that they got one less vote than they did.  That was the only thing I could control - my one vote.

Republicans will come out to vote in November, which is why Democrats need to focus on getting new voters to the polls.  If you don't like the electorate, change it.  Half of the country doesn't vote in even presidential elections.  There's a lot of potential voters out there - you need to ask them for their vote.

I think we always seem to forget how much your average voter- or citizen, for that matter- really cares about politics.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't think any of these have been posted yet:

YouGov, Mar 10-13, 1278 RV

D 43 (nc)
R 38 (+1)

Morning Consult, Mar 8-12, 1997 RV

D 43 (-1)
R 36 (+1)

Ipsos/Reuters, Mar 8-12, 1216 RV

D 43 (-1)
R 34 (+1)

[junior chįmp]

Remember remember this November when GOP is done!

https://www.twitter.com/DKElections/status/973738783941242880

To add:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I was discussing this with Marty last night - I’m not a fan of this talking point. Presuming a uniform swing across various regions, and assuming the same candidate/campaign quality, is hazardous. Even a 1/3 of those swings is about 40 seats, close to 1994-level. 1/2 is basically 2010 redux. I figure the end result, if we’re being ambitious, could be somewhere in between

Obviously I do not predict the Dems to win like 120 seats but I stand by the prediction I made like 6 months ago: 70+ seats

Now that Trump has grown more and more unhinged....there is the very real possibility of him firing Mueller or pulling out of NAFTA which would only cause the blue wave to get bigger. If he does both then the possibility of losing 100+ seats becomes all to real

[junior chįmp]

I don't think any of these have been posted yet:

YouGov, Mar 10-13, 1278 RV

D 43 (nc)
R 38 (+1)

Morning Consult, Mar 8-12, 1997 RV

D 43 (-1)
R 36 (+1)

Ipsos/Reuters, Mar 8-12, 1216 RV

D 43 (-1)
R 34 (+1)

Ipsos Reuters is an increase... pretty sure it was D+5 a few days ago.

Who cares what the junk polls say. The GOP is finished. Oh BTW:

https://www.twitter.com/BillKristol/status/974104638197846016

[I’m not Stu]

CA-39: Kim 15, Huff 12

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

CA-39: Kim 15, Huff 12

Thank you for not linking to Wikipedia

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, Mar 11-15, 1265 RV

D 45 (+4)
R 35 (-2)

The previous poll may have been an outlier; the two before that were D+10 and D+9.

[Gass3268]

Ipsos/Reuters, Mar 11-15, 1265 RV

D 45 (+4)
R 35 (-2)

The previous poll may have been an outlier; the two before that were D+10 and D+9.

They are so swinging it hard to take them seriously.

[BudgieForce]

NBC, March 10-14
https://mobile.twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/975356153071841286
D - 50%(+1)
R - 40%(-3)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

NBC, March 10-14
https://mobile.twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/975356153071841286
D - 50%(+1)
R - 40%(-3)

No doubt the PA18 race has something to do with the collapse.

[Landslide Lyndon]

HOLLY FYCK!!!

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

HOLLY FYCK!!!

How is this a good thing? This just proves the Democratic advantage is packed in already-Dem districts.

[YE]

HOLLY FYCK!!!

How is this a good thing? This just proves the Democratic advantage is packed in already-Dem districts.

Being tied in GOP held districts is incredible...

[GeorgiaModerate]

HOLLY FYCK!!!

How is this a good thing? This just proves the Democratic advantage is packed in already-Dem districts.

An even split in the R-held districts would be very bad news for the GOP.  It would mean that the Democrats would be virtually certain to pick off a bunch of their seats.