2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[KingSweden]

Can we talk more about the fact that a political party needs to win by 6 + percentage points of the popular vote to even begin to think about wielding political power, and how any Republican can defend this as anything but a gross abrogation of a democratic system of government.

This is a by effect of the FPTP system. That said, eliminating gerrymandering fixes much of the disparate effects.

[Badger]

https://static.texastribune.org/media/documents/ut-tt-2018-02-summary-1.pdf?_ga=2.225578778.1647027925.1519049485-1170111650.1519049485 on page 9/19, GOP leads Generic Congressional Ballot by 3 in Texas.

For reference, in 2016 the GOP won 57-37. Sessions, Hurd, and Culberson are probably f**ked if this is right.

A lot more than just those 3 would be screwed if Republicans only won the House popular vote by 3 points in Texas.

Hmmmn, probably not. All the other districts have been carried by Trump by at least 10 points. Unless the swings are concentrated in some areas.

The swing wouldn't be even at all though. For instance, among other districts, Clinton's improvement disproportionately hit these districts:

TX-21
TX-22
TX-24
TX-32

Absurdly Republican seats like TX-19 and TX-36 barely moved at all, and in fact in those two cases went more for Trump than they did for Romney.

So if I had to guess, Marchant and Smith's seats might be candidates for competitive seats under R+3 House PV in TX, even if not by much.

Not to mention even a 17 point shift from +20 statewide to +3 is going to endanger "mere" +10 or even +15 Trump seats (caveats about shifts not being uniform being noted).

[Greedo punched first]

New SurveyUSA poll for CA-49 primary.
Sample size: 510
Margin of error: ±5.4%
Doug Applegate (D): 18%
Rocky Chavez (R): 17%
Diane Harkey: 10%
Mike Levin (D): 8%
Kristin Gaspar (R): 7%
Sara Jacobs (D): 5%
Brian Maryott (R): 2%
Josh Schoonover (R): 2%
Paul Kerr (D): 1%
Jordan Mills (Peace & Freedom): 1%
Christina Prejean (D): 1%
Joshua Hancock (L): 0%
Other: 1%
Undecided: 27%

[Holmes]

Quinipiac has D+15. 53 - 38.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2521

[Doimper]

Quinipiac has D+15. 53 - 38.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2521

COLLAPSE

[Holmes]

Republicans and Trump's numbers really took a hit with this recent shooting, at least according to Q.

[Yank2133]

Republicans and Trump's numbers really took a hit with this recent shooting, at least according to Q.

I kind of doubt that.

Historically, parties tend to see a bump early in the cycle, but things tend to regress as we enter the spring.

[Hindsight was 2020]

This is an outlier but this does point to January's numbers just being a small bump

[KingSweden]

Quinipiac has D+15. 53 - 38.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2521

*whistles*

Let’s see this corroborated, though.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinipiac has D+15. 53 - 38.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2521

For comparison, their previous poll (Feb 2-5) was 49/40 (D+9).

[Gass3268]

Quinipiac has D+15. 53 - 38.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2521

*whistles*

Let’s see this corroborated, though.

It does make sense if both Gallup and Rassy are showing a decline for Trump.

[Devout Centrist]

Y'know, no one is going to learn their damn lesson. We're gonna repeat the doomsaying of the past few weeks within two months or so.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Y'know, no one is going to learn their damn lesson. We'e gonna repeat the doomsaying of the past few weeks within two months or so.

Yes, but what will be the trend of the doomsaying?

[Oryxslayer]

Can we talk more about the fact that a political party needs to win by 6 + percentage points of the popular vote to even begin to think about wielding political power, and how any Republican can defend this as anything but a gross abrogation of a democratic system of government.

The national median house district before the Pennsylvania remap was R+3 (this might have changed post-PA) which means that democrats need a ballot advantage of 3 or more to overcome said seat. The big hump - which republicans  would also face if they were attacking a D majority, comes from incumbency advantage, and that is relative. In some cases, like FL-26 and MN-07 incumbency matters a whole lot. In others, like NH-01 and NV-04, it mattered very little. The average seems to be between 3-4 points, meaning that with the present map, Ds need a ballot advantage of 6-7, and Rs would need a ballot advantage of 0-1 to take control. Under a entirely fair map, both parties would probably need a 4 point lead to take control.

[LimoLiberal]

Quinnipiac poll not being corroborated at all. Reuters/Ipsos goes from D+6 to D+6.

[KingSweden]

Y'know, no one is going to learn their damn lesson. We'e gonna repeat the doomsaying of the past few weeks within two months or so.

Yes, but what will be the trend of the doomsaying?

Goddamn it this made me chuckle

[Holmes]

Gold standard Quinipiac nailed VA-Gov.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Democrats are regaining steam. They are up to +8.5 over at 538 and +7.6 at RCP. I expect them to further expand in the coming weeks.

#ButHensterToldMeThatGunControlIsALosingIssue

Btw, the Q poll puts the Dems back to where they were BEFORE the tax bill was passed. Sorry, Limo.

[Badger]

Y'know, no one is going to learn their damn lesson. We'e gonna repeat the doomsaying of the past few weeks within two months or so.

Yes, but what will be the trend of the doomsaying?

Goddamn it this made me chuckle

Lol'd here.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I don't know where to put this but Texas early voting started today and in Harris county rep Ev turnout is up 25% from 2014 while dem Ev turnout is up 300% from 2014!!!! https://mobile.twitter.com/profJKAiyer/status/966125899186950146

[LimoLiberal]

Would love to see these. But behind the politico pro wall.

https://twitter.com/POLITICOPro/status/966297705575264257

[quote]New polls show Democrats ahead in 11 House districts. The details from @ec_schneider: http://politico.pro/2EU84ih

[Doimper]

Would love to see these. But behind the politico pro wall.

https://twitter.com/POLITICOPro/status/966297705575264257

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's annoying.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

who in the hell has politico pro?

[Devout Centrist]

In all likelihood, they’re probably useless morning consult polls that show Generic D leading Generic R 41-40 in WA-08 or something

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, Feb 15-19, 766 RV

D 42 (nc)
R 35 (-1)

Third consecutive poll they've had D at 42, while R has gone from 38 to 36 to 35.