2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original  (Read 209306 times)
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hofoid
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« Reply #900 on: April 03, 2018, 01:35:55 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on April 03, 2018, 10:17:21 AM
PPP: Rod Blum has a -20 (34/54) approval rating in IA-01

Trump (41/54) and Paul Ryan (26/61) are also underwater. The tax bill is extremely unpopular (31/53), while the ACA is popular (47/35).
This suggests reversion to 2012 numbers. First piece of good news for Dems in about a decade.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #901 on: April 03, 2018, 05:14:52 PM »
Ispos:

Democrats: 43%
Republicans: 35% (-2)

Dems rebounding!

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM1212Y17/filters/PD1:1
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #902 on: April 04, 2018, 02:21:22 PM »
YouGov, April 1-3, 1244 RV

D 43 (+1)
R 36 (+1)

D+7, no net change.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #903 on: April 04, 2018, 02:22:36 PM »
Morning Consult/Politico, March 29-April 1, 1997 RV

D 41, R 37 (exactly the same as their previous survey).
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #904 on: April 04, 2018, 06:19:03 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on April 04, 2018, 02:22:36 PM
Morning Consult/Politico, March 29-April 1, 1997 RV

D 41, R 37 (exactly the same as their previous survey).

Don't get too excited, Limo.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #905 on: April 04, 2018, 07:13:37 PM »
New Jersey Congressional Ballot, Stockton Poll 3/22-29

https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2018-0404-poll-wfs-2.pdf

Democrats - 48
Republicans - 32

D+16.

In 2016, Democrats won 54-46 (D+8) in the House of Representatives vote in the state of New Jersey.
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hofoid
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« Reply #906 on: April 04, 2018, 07:20:04 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on April 04, 2018, 07:13:37 PM
New Jersey Congressional Ballot, Stockton Poll 3/22-29

https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2018-0404-poll-wfs-2.pdf

Democrats - 48
Republicans - 32

D+16.

In 2016, Democrats won 54-46 (D+8) in the House of Representatives vote in the state of New Jersey.
I wonder how much of this is simply packed in already D districts.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #907 on: April 04, 2018, 07:21:13 PM »
Quote from: hofoid on April 04, 2018, 07:20:04 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on April 04, 2018, 07:13:37 PM
New Jersey Congressional Ballot, Stockton Poll 3/22-29

https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2018-0404-poll-wfs-2.pdf

Democrats - 48
Republicans - 32

D+16.

In 2016, Democrats won 54-46 (D+8) in the House of Representatives vote in the state of New Jersey.
I wonder how much of this is simply packed in already D districts.

Probably a bit, TBF, but it’s still remarkable that the House 2-Party margin is double
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #908 on: April 04, 2018, 07:35:06 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on April 04, 2018, 07:13:37 PM
New Jersey Congressional Ballot, Stockton Poll 3/22-29

https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2018-0404-poll-wfs-2.pdf

Democrats - 48
Republicans - 32

D+16.

In 2016, Democrats won 54-46 (D+8) in the House of Representatives vote in the state of New Jersey.

Wow! Chris Smith really might be the only one left in the delegation if this holds true.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #909 on: April 04, 2018, 07:36:38 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on April 04, 2018, 07:13:37 PM
New Jersey Congressional Ballot, Stockton Poll 3/22-29

https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2018-0404-poll-wfs-2.pdf

Democrats - 48
Republicans - 32

D+16.

In 2016, Democrats won 54-46 (D+8) in the House of Representatives vote in the state of New Jersey.
For all the talk of California and Texas get the path to the house might end up running through NJ and Pennsylvania
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Virginiá
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« Reply #910 on: April 04, 2018, 07:55:40 PM »
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on April 04, 2018, 07:36:38 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on April 04, 2018, 07:13:37 PM
New Jersey Congressional Ballot, Stockton Poll 3/22-29

https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2018-0404-poll-wfs-2.pdf

Democrats - 48
Republicans - 32

D+16.

In 2016, Democrats won 54-46 (D+8) in the House of Representatives vote in the state of New Jersey.
For all the talk of California and Texas get the path to the house might end up running through NJ and Pennsylvania

We'll see. Democrats will probably need to get D+16 or more to have a major sweep of NJ House seats. The most they've gotten over the past 10 years is something like D+13 -/+

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_New_Jersey,_2012
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_New_Jersey,_2008

Lucky for Republicans, NJ is not as consistently Democratic downballot as it is at the presidential level.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #911 on: April 04, 2018, 08:00:01 PM »
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on April 04, 2018, 07:36:38 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on April 04, 2018, 07:13:37 PM
New Jersey Congressional Ballot, Stockton Poll 3/22-29

https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2018-0404-poll-wfs-2.pdf

Democrats - 48
Republicans - 32

D+16.

In 2016, Democrats won 54-46 (D+8) in the House of Representatives vote in the state of New Jersey.
For all the talk of California and Texas get the path to the house might end up running through NJ and Pennsylvania

If I had to rank the states in order or importance for November, I think it would roughly be Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, California, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, Virginia, Minnesota, Texas, and Iowa.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #912 on: April 04, 2018, 08:06:04 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on April 04, 2018, 07:13:37 PM
New Jersey Congressional Ballot, Stockton Poll 3/22-29

https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2018-0404-poll-wfs-2.pdf

Democrats - 48
Republicans - 32

D+16.

In 2016, Democrats won 54-46 (D+8) in the House of Representatives vote in the state of New Jersey.

Related: Does anyone have a congressional district map of the New Jersey gubernatorial election results?
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Virginiá
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« Reply #913 on: April 04, 2018, 08:10:22 PM »
Also, fwiw, the 2017 legislative elections do give us hope for a possible House sweep in November. They did considerably better than Murphy:

Senate popular vote: D+18.4
General Assembly popular vote: D+16.7

If Democrats could win by 18 points, I think that might get the delegation to at least 11-1

Quote from: darthpi on April 04, 2018, 08:06:04 PM
Related: Does anyone have a congressional district map of the New Jersey gubernatorial election results?

https://twitter.com/jmilescoleman/status/930443967627517952
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Badger
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« Reply #914 on: April 05, 2018, 12:07:25 AM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on April 03, 2018, 08:18:19 AM

I would say that's more up sign of Republican lack of enthusiasm rather than Democratic enthusiasm. Same bottom line effect though.
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Badger
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« Reply #915 on: April 05, 2018, 12:08:23 AM »
Quote from: Doctor Imperialism on April 03, 2018, 11:05:21 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on April 03, 2018, 10:17:21 AM
PPP: Rod Blum has a -20 (34/54) approval rating in IA-01

Trump (41/54) and Paul Ryan (26/61) are also underwater. The tax bill is extremely unpopular (31/53), while the ACA is popular (47/35).

Neato.

Not sure if it's from the same poll, but it was also just reported he's several points down on his Democratic Challenger. pretty bad shape for an incumbent.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #916 on: April 05, 2018, 08:48:58 AM »
Quote from: Badger on April 05, 2018, 12:08:23 AM
Quote from: Doctor Imperialism on April 03, 2018, 11:05:21 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on April 03, 2018, 10:17:21 AM
PPP: Rod Blum has a -20 (34/54) approval rating in IA-01

Trump (41/54) and Paul Ryan (26/61) are also underwater. The tax bill is extremely unpopular (31/53), while the ACA is popular (47/35).

Neato.

Not sure if it's from the same poll, but it was also just reported he's several points down on his Democratic Challenger. pretty bad shape for an incumbent.

Iowa is going to be ground zero to the Midwestern snapback against Republicans.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #917 on: April 05, 2018, 08:58:20 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on April 05, 2018, 08:48:58 AM
Quote from: Badger on April 05, 2018, 12:08:23 AM
Quote from: Doctor Imperialism on April 03, 2018, 11:05:21 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on April 03, 2018, 10:17:21 AM
PPP: Rod Blum has a -20 (34/54) approval rating in IA-01

Trump (41/54) and Paul Ryan (26/61) are also underwater. The tax bill is extremely unpopular (31/53), while the ACA is popular (47/35).

Neato.

Not sure if it's from the same poll, but it was also just reported he's several points down on his Democratic Challenger. pretty bad shape for an incumbent.

Iowa is going to be ground zero to the Midwestern snapback against Republicans.

PA is gonna be pretty bad for them too.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #918 on: April 06, 2018, 03:25:39 PM »
Ispos:

Democrats: 43% (-2)
Republicans: 33% (-2)

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM1212Y17/filters/PD1:1
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KingSweden
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« Reply #919 on: April 06, 2018, 03:28:51 PM »
Don’t look now but the 538 average is back in the 8.5% range
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #920 on: April 06, 2018, 03:36:00 PM »
Quote from: KingSweden on April 06, 2018, 03:28:51 PM
Don’t look now but the 538 average is back in the 8.5% range


But King Lear told me that there was going to be a red wave based on Rasmussen polls?... Sad
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #921 on: April 08, 2018, 06:06:36 PM »
MI-08 Target Insyght Poll:

Bishop (i) (R): 45%
Slotkin (D): 39%

2016 Results -

Bishop (R): 56%
Shkreli (D): 39%
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #922 on: April 08, 2018, 07:52:04 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on April 08, 2018, 06:06:36 PM
MI-08 Target Insyght Poll:

Bishop (i) (R): 45%
Slotkin (D): 39%

2016 Results -

Bishop (R): 56%
Shkreli (D): 39%

Within range of expectations. I've thought of this as a competitive but slightly Republican-leaning seat, rather than a pure tossup, so a six point lead for an incumbent several months out sounds about right.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #923 on: April 08, 2018, 09:42:29 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on April 08, 2018, 06:06:36 PM
MI-08 Target Insyght Poll:

Bishop (i) (R): 45%
Slotkin (D): 39%

2016 Results -

Bishop (R): 56%
Shkreli (D): 39%

Is this an internal for a campaign? Middling numbers for the incumbent either way.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #924 on: April 09, 2018, 12:24:04 AM »
Mike Levin raised $315,000 in Q1 in CA-49. It’ll probably be the second-highest among Democrats after Sara Jacobs’s haul.
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