2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[GlobeSoc]

IIRC there was what we would call nowadays a reverse age gap on attitudes towards the Vietnam War, unsurprising since the youth at the time were the conservative baby boomers and the seniors were the ultra-liberal GI generation.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

IIRC there was what we would call nowadays a reverse age gap on attitudes towards the Vietnam War, unsurprising since the youth at the time were the conservative baby boomers and the seniors were the ultra-liberal GI generation.

I thought the younger folks were more likely to oppose the war.

But later, in the '90s, the younger voters were indeed more conservative. The first presidential election I could vote in was 1992, and I remember seeing a poll that said my generation was the most conservative at the time.

[Devout Centrist]

IIRC there was what we would call nowadays a reverse age gap on attitudes towards the Vietnam War, unsurprising since the youth at the time were the conservative baby boomers and the seniors were the ultra-liberal GI generation.

I thought the younger folks were more likely to oppose the war.

But later, in the '90s, the younger voters were indeed more conservative. The first presidential election I could vote in was 1992, and I remember seeing a poll that said my generation was the most conservative at the time.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

(PPP) PA-16

Mike Kelly (R) - 48%
Ron DiNicola (D) - 43%

Wow- Trump won PA-16 by 20%.

It is not entirely implausible that this seat could be somewhat competitive. This is the district with Erie, which swung HARD to Trump, but the congressional district with Erie voted for Obama in 2008. In that respect it is actually better ground for ancestral Dem resurgence than southwest Pennsylvania (which never came close to voting for Obama). It is the sort of place where Conor Lamb is an indicator of what could be possible, at least with a very good candidate. But the flip side is the current PA-16 doesn't have any Pittsburgh suburbs that Lamb thrived in.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

(PPP) PA-16

Mike Kelly (R) - 48%
Ron DiNicola (D) - 43%

DiNicola's a good man, but his hair is worse than Raskin's, yeesh.

[Strudelcutie4427]

(PPP) PA-16

Mike Kelly (R) - 48%
Ron DiNicola (D) - 43%

DiNicola's a good man, but his hair is worse than Raskin's, yeesh.

Nobody’s got worse hair than Jamie 4skin. His looks like he picked up barber shop clippings then got a perm with them

[KingSweden]

(PPP) PA-16

Mike Kelly (R) - 48%
Ron DiNicola (D) - 43%

DiNicola's a good man, but his hair is worse than Raskin's, yeesh.

Nobody’s got worse hair than Jamie 4skin. His looks like he picked up barber shop clippings then got a perm with them

[Tender Branson]

It seems the Dem. advantage has narrowed down to about 2% from about 8-10% a few months ago.

We'll need to wait for the TX and OH special elections to see if this is true or not ...

[BudgieForce]

It seems the Dem. advantage has narrowed down to about 2% from about 8-10% a few months ago.

We'll need to wait for the TX and OH special elections to see if this is true or not ...

Where are you getting 2%?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It seems the Dem. advantage has narrowed down to about 2% from about 8-10% a few months ago.

We'll need to wait for the TX and OH special elections to see if this is true or not ...

What?

[Tender Branson]

It seems the Dem. advantage has narrowed down to about 2% from about 8-10% a few months ago.

We'll need to wait for the TX and OH special elections to see if this is true or not ...

Where are you getting 2%?

Look at today's RCP average.

It's 3% right now, with the last few polls only showing a 1-3% advantage ...

[BudgieForce]

It seems the Dem. advantage has narrowed down to about 2% from about 8-10% a few months ago.

We'll need to wait for the TX and OH special elections to see if this is true or not ...

Where are you getting 2%?

Look at today's RCP average.

It's 3% right now, with the last few polls only showing a 1-3% advantage ...

538 shows it at +6 at the moment. We've also gotten nothing but iffy online tracking polls this month, contrary to the quality of polling we were getting a few months ago.

[Brittain33]

It seems the Dem. advantage has narrowed down to about 2% from about 8-10% a few months ago.

We'll need to wait for the TX and OH special elections to see if this is true or not ...

Where are you getting 2%?

Look at today's RCP average.

It's 3% right now, with the last few polls only showing a 1-3% advantage ...

Please don't look at the (R)CP average for this.

[Gass3268]

Echelon Insights: D+7

[GeorgiaModerate]

Echelon Insights: D+7

Does this pollster have much of a track record?  I don't see them in 538's database.

They have Trump approval at 39/45 among all adults and 39/48 among RV, so that seems plausible.

[Gass3268]

Echelon Insights: D+7

Does this pollster have much of a track record?  I don't see them in 538's database.

They have Trump approval at 39/45 among all adults and 39/48 among RV, so that seems plausible.

It appears to be a rightwing research group. Here is their leadership team:

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[KingSweden]

Echelon Insights: D+7

Does this pollster have much of a track record?  I don't see them in 538's database.

They have Trump approval at 39/45 among all adults and 39/48 among RV, so that seems plausible.

Plausible, though without a track record I’d advise just throwing it in the pile.

[junior chįmp]

https://www.twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1002571894242103296

[ON Progressive]

https://www.twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1002571894242103296

That's a great pick for their first district.

[junior chįmp]

WA-08 House Majority PAC Poll

Jason Rittereiser 50%
Dino Rossi 47%

https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2018/06/01/26573432/new-poll-shows-a-democrat-beating-dino-rossi-in-race-to-replace-rep-reichert

[KingSweden]

WA-08 House Majority PAC Poll

Jason Rittereiser 50%
Dino Rossi 47%

https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2018/06/01/26573432/new-poll-shows-a-democrat-beating-dino-rossi-in-race-to-replace-rep-reichert

I wonder what Schrier’s numbers are, since she’s probably favored to make the runoff.

[Gass3268]

WA-08 House Majority PAC Poll

Jason Rittereiser 50%
Dino Rossi 47%

https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2018/06/01/26573432/new-poll-shows-a-democrat-beating-dino-rossi-in-race-to-replace-rep-reichert

Trumps approval is at -18%. That plus the eventual negative ads are going to crush Rossi.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

WA-08 House Majority PAC Poll

Jason Rittereiser 50%
Dino Rossi 47%

https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2018/06/01/26573432/new-poll-shows-a-democrat-beating-dino-rossi-in-race-to-replace-rep-reichert

That's only after people read positive & negative information about every candidate. Rossi is beating Ritt by 9 before that.

[UncleSam]

WA-08 House Majority PAC Poll

Jason Rittereiser 50%
Dino Rossi 47%

https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2018/06/01/26573432/new-poll-shows-a-democrat-beating-dino-rossi-in-race-to-replace-rep-reichert

That's only after people read positive & negative information about every candidate. Rossi is beating Ritt by 9 before that.

It’s an internal for a Nancy Pelosi pac, what do you expect

It’s a Lean R race until I see a non-push poll that shows any Dem within a few points of Rossi. Frankly this internal is so embarrassing I’m surprised they released it.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Echelon Insights: D+7

It seems that, according to the poll, the Dems are getting a boost on healthcare and Gun control.