2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original
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  2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original  (Read 203903 times)
aaroncd107
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« Reply #2300 on: June 25, 2018, 08:42:30 AM »
« edited: June 25, 2018, 08:48:00 AM by aaroncd107 »

https://imgur.com/a/fHdjPeT
Any idea what the source on this poll could be? It’s probably internal.
I work on this campaign, anyone have questions?

Also, what do you all rate this? I say tossup/tilt D if it were today, but it has great potential to move either way as both candidates get their name out.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #2301 on: June 25, 2018, 08:55:57 AM »

It's a DCCC internal.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #2302 on: June 25, 2018, 09:01:15 AM »

Here is a You Gov poll estimating House election results

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/06/21/cbs-yougov-house-model-1

I probably have missed a prior posting. If so please refer me.

Their estimates:

Basic Dem 219 Rep 216.    Vote 52.7% to 47.3 s

High Democrat estimate:  Dem 232. Rep 203  Vote Dem 53.9% Rep 46.1%

High Rep. estimate  Rep. 226 Dem 209  Vote Dem 51.5 Rep. 48.5%

I think I like first.  Hard for Democrats to control.  Likely no serious impeachment efforts.  Republicans not responsible.  Senate likely remains Republican.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2303 on: June 25, 2018, 09:21:30 AM »

Note that this is Arizona only, NOT a national GCB poll:

Emerson, June 21-22, 650 registered voters

D 44
R 40
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2304 on: June 25, 2018, 09:28:57 AM »

Note that this is Arizona only, NOT a national GCB poll:

Emerson, June 21-22, 650 registered voters

D 44
R 40

If the Democrats are up 4 in Arizona, they’re at least up 8 nationwide, or Arizona is trending D faster than we thought.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #2305 on: June 25, 2018, 09:31:24 AM »

Note that this is Arizona only, NOT a national GCB poll:

Emerson, June 21-22, 650 registered voters

D 44
R 40

If the Democrats are up 4 in Arizona, they’re at least up 8 nationwide, or Arizona is trending D faster than we thought.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #2306 on: June 25, 2018, 09:58:14 AM »

Note that this is Arizona only, NOT a national GCB poll:

Emerson, June 21-22, 650 registered voters

D 44
R 40

If the Democrats are up 4 in Arizona, they’re at least up 8 nationwide, or Arizona is trending D faster than we thought.

I believe we are not to discuss single states on this thread.

With respect to Arizona:Republicans have a terrible mess with McCain, Flake (what a truthfully descriptive name) and Arpaio.  That really is not true nationally.  There are some problems.  But not to the extent of Arizona.
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Person Man
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« Reply #2307 on: June 25, 2018, 10:51:02 AM »

Note that this is Arizona only, NOT a national GCB poll:

Emerson, June 21-22, 650 registered voters

D 44
R 40

If the Democrats are up 4 in Arizona, they’re at least up 8 nationwide, or Arizona is trending D faster than we thought.

I believe we are not to discuss single states on this thread.

With respect to Arizona:Republicans have a terrible mess with McCain, Flake (what a truthfully descriptive name) and Arpaio.  That really is not true nationally.  There are some problems.  But not to the extent of Arizona.

That's how these things tend to start.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #2308 on: June 25, 2018, 11:06:26 AM »

Believable. This will be a squeaker.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2309 on: June 25, 2018, 11:27:12 AM »

Note that this is Arizona only, NOT a national GCB poll:

Emerson, June 21-22, 650 registered voters

D 44
R 40

If the Democrats are up 4 in Arizona, they’re at least up 8 nationwide, or Arizona is trending D faster than we thought.

I believe we are not to discuss single states on this thread.

With respect to Arizona:Republicans have a terrible mess with McCain, Flake (what a truthfully descriptive name) and Arpaio.  That really is not true nationally.  There are some problems.  But not to the extent of Arizona.

May I ask why we cant discuss the generic ballot on the generic ballot thread?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #2310 on: June 25, 2018, 11:28:20 AM »

I don't see any reason to exclude single-state GCB polls from this thread.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #2311 on: June 25, 2018, 12:24:46 PM »

Monmouth is releasing a VA 10th poll tomorrow. Not really that exciting, since literally everybody knows who is going to win but here is the announcement anyways.

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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2312 on: June 25, 2018, 12:31:26 PM »

Monmouth is releasing a VA 10th poll tomorrow. Not really that exciting, since literally everybody knows who is going to win but here is the announcement anyways.



Wexton +7
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #2313 on: June 25, 2018, 12:41:27 PM »

Monmouth is releasing a VA 10th poll tomorrow. Not really that exciting, since literally everybody knows who is going to win but here is the announcement anyways.



Wexton +7

If not by more.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #2314 on: June 25, 2018, 04:25:17 PM »

Note that this is Arizona only, NOT a national GCB poll:

Emerson, June 21-22, 650 registered voters

D 44
R 40

If the Democrats are up 4 in Arizona, they’re at least up 8 nationwide, or Arizona is trending D faster than we thought.

I believe we are not to discuss single states on this thread.

With respect to Arizona:Republicans have a terrible mess with McCain, Flake (what a truthfully descriptive name) and Arpaio.  That really is not true nationally.  There are some problems.  But not to the extent of Arizona.

That's how these things tend to start.

Never seen anything like this trio.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #2315 on: June 26, 2018, 11:02:30 AM »


Dominating.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2316 on: June 26, 2018, 11:04:06 AM »

But Kyle Kondik told me this was a toss up! Sad
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Doimper
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« Reply #2317 on: June 26, 2018, 11:04:21 AM »


Dominating.

muh tossup
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #2318 on: June 26, 2018, 11:06:20 AM »

All voters: Wexton 49/Comstock 39
Likely voters: Wexton 50/Comstock 41
Dem surge: Wexton 51/Comstock 40
https://mobile.twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1011640324836478976?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fuselectionatlas.org%2FFORUM%2Findex.php%3Ftopic%3D292664.msg6220390%23new
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #2319 on: June 26, 2018, 11:07:04 AM »

Nice knowing you Comstock.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #2320 on: June 26, 2018, 11:07:55 AM »

Jeez.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #2321 on: June 26, 2018, 11:08:10 AM »

GOP wave.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #2322 on: June 26, 2018, 11:09:05 AM »

F
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #2323 on: June 26, 2018, 11:09:51 AM »

Put this in the mega thread, not the senate thread area.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #2324 on: June 26, 2018, 11:09:58 AM »

Seems that Comstock is DoA.
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