2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Young Conservative]

http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/21/politics/cnn-poll-midterm-elections-generic-congressional/index.html

D: 49%
R: 44%

The last poll (pre-tax reform) was:
D:56
R: 38

Democrats lost 7 points, Republicans gained 6 points.

[Young Conservative]

Look, Folks, we live in a bubble on this site. Can we at least recognize that?

[Young Conservative]

FOX

Dems: 44%
GOP: 38%


They had Trump's approval rating rebound. This is absolutely catastrophic for the GOP if the Democrats are leading by this much in a Fox poll.

Fox isn’t GOP biased. It’s a reliable pollster.

[Young Conservative]

FOX

Dems: 44%
GOP: 38%


They had Trump's approval rating rebound. This is absolutely catastrophic for the GOP if the Democrats are leading by this much in a Fox poll.

Fox isn’t GOP biased. It’s a reliable pollster.

Their night TV is just talk radio on air now, but their polling remains accurate. Their news team isn't bad either (Smith/Wallace/Baier)

[Young Conservative]

This poll isn't great for Dems, but there is nothing to worry about. Of course they should still look at it and fix their strategy, but there were polls similar like this where the Democrats were beating the GOP in 2010 and then lost. We need to look at the environment and history, both of which heavily favor the Democrats.

* Dem candidates outraising Reps by miles
* Record number of GOP politicians resigning
* Highly unpopular President

His approvals are going up though...fox, cnn, and mounmouth  have all shown upticks. Democrats shouldn’t take their natural advantage this year for granted, especially when the DNC is 200k away from insolvency when the GOP has millions in cash on hand plus the Koch network.

[Young Conservative]

This is fascinating. The Upshot at the NYT estimates that the impact of court-ordered redistricting in Pa., Va., Florida, and NC, Republican retirements, and Democratic recruitments has added the equivalent of 2 points to the Democratic advantage on the generic ballot. In other words, it's made it easier for Democrats to take control equivalent to 2 points on the generic ballot but in a way that won't show up in the polls.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/12/upshot/big-republican-advantages-are-eroding-in-the-race-for-house-control.html

Funny how the gerrymandering of California and Maryland is ok but NC and VA isn’t.

[Young Conservative]

This is fascinating. The Upshot at the NYT estimates that the impact of court-ordered redistricting in Pa., Va., Florida, and NC, Republican retirements, and Democratic recruitments has added the equivalent of 2 points to the Democratic advantage on the generic ballot. In other words, it's made it easier for Democrats to take control equivalent to 2 points on the generic ballot but in a way that won't show up in the polls.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/12/upshot/big-republican-advantages-are-eroding-in-the-race-for-house-control.html

Funny how the gerrymandering of California and Maryland is ok but NC and VA isn’t.

California wasn’t gerrymandered.

Just because it has a “nonpartisan districting Committee” doesn’t mean it isn’t gerrymandered. Especially when criteria for districting is matching so called “communities of interest.”

[Young Conservative]

Trying to have a running record of all polls here.

Fresh poll!

Essentially a tie between Democratic candidates and Republican candidates. However, Republicans are benefiting from fewer candidates.

[Young Conservative]

Ojeda apparently has internal polling that shows him winning Republicans

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http://voteojeda.com/2018/03/05/republican-rupie-phillips-trails-ojeda-wv-03/

Carol Miller is the leading contender for the GOP, especially in regards to the money race. Interesting that they didn't share her poll numbers.

[Young Conservative]

Do we have any IL-06 D primary polls?

Just the PPP one that showed Newman down 2 iirc.

A PPP internal for NARAL or PP if I remember right

[Young Conservative]

I am shocked that some random lady is trailing by more than a former Congressman in an NRCC internal

[Young Conservative]

Reuters/ISPOS

Democrats: 40% (+2)
Republicans: 37% (-/-)

Democrats improving.

Strangely, the amount of Dems and Reps surveyed are the same... So I highly doubt that it's accurate. I think we all expect more Democrats to vote on Election Day than Republicans.

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2018-05/2018-reuters-tracking-core-political-05-23-2018.pdf

+3 seems more likely than +1. I think this poll is probably more accurate and the last one was just a blip.

[Young Conservative]

Did you read the website? Is the stuff on it true?

[Young Conservative]

Decent numbers for Wallace there, indicates a Tossup/Tilt R race as we thought.

I concur. No shocks here. Slightly tilt R, but definitely mostly tossup.

[Young Conservative]

Not sure if this has been posted here yet, WA-08 poll from GBA Strategies/House Majority Pac:

Rossi- 51%
Schrier- 45%

Rossi- 51%
Hader- 45%

Rossi- 52%
Rittereiser- 43%

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/4492869-WA-8-Baseline-Survey-Analysis.html

Are these the numbers before or after candidate descriptions?

I would guess before. Rossi has the best name Rec.

[Young Conservative]

>Gravis

To be fair, I want to see another poll of MT-AL by a different pollster before I come to the conclusion that Gianforte is in this much trouble.

[Young Conservative]

Believable. This will be a squeaker.

[Young Conservative]

There's a 45-point gender gap in this poll. Wow.

The margin is believable, but that is not.