2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Dr. Arch]

Quinnipiac:
Democrats 51
Republicans 38

I don't see how the Dems make gains with numbers like this.

.....

[Dr. Arch]

My feeling is that an increase in Trumps approval will correspond to better congressional poll results for Republicans.  

Here's my theory.  Trump has been cast as a Radical Republican. I think people see congressional lawmakers as more centrist and appropriate. If more people approve of Trump that indicates to me that people are not just leaning Republican, but becoming base supporters of Trump.  As a consequence, Republicans will have a larger base to work with during the mid-term elections.  

I think the key number is 47 for Trump's approval ratings.  That would represent a 6 points swing and save the Republicans from any meaningful losses.  Remember that Trump won the election with 46% of the vote and congressional Republicans dominated.  If he starts to exceed 48, the Democrats are in big s##t trouble.  Over 50% and it becomes a disaster.  

You didn't see this number correspond with Obama's approval rating, because Democrats don't show up in big numbers during mid-term elections and Democrats were not viewed so favorably in many congressional districts. Obama seemed reasonable and centrist to the blue collar voter, but Democrats did not.  We have the opposite situation working today in which people view Republicans more favorably than Trump.  

This is a myth. In truth, turnout is usually in flux and depends on the electorate base of the parties. With Republicans bleeding educated voters, who turn out in good numbers historically, the opposite is easily possible in a midterm with a president like Trump. In fact, most elections we've seen so far since 2016 have seen massive swings against Republicans in what are supposed to be extremely low turnout elections.

We'll see what happens in 2018, but you're getting ahead of yourself here.

[Dr. Arch]

Republicans lead by only 6% in ALL of the districts they hold.

The GOP is finished. Libs using extra monies from Trump tax scam to send to lib candidates

That actually looks like a depolarization effect.

[Dr. Arch]

Another fun graph:

....oh my god

sidenote: what happened in 1998??

Bill Clinton, Impeachment of

Ah, of course.

[Dr. Arch]

This is fascinating. The Upshot at the NYT estimates that the impact of court-ordered redistricting in Pa., Va., Florida, and NC, Republican retirements, and Democratic recruitments has added the equivalent of 2 points to the Democratic advantage on the generic ballot. In other words, it's made it easier for Democrats to take control equivalent to 2 points on the generic ballot but in a way that won't show up in the polls.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/12/upshot/big-republican-advantages-are-eroding-in-the-race-for-house-control.html

Funny how the gerrymandering of California and Maryland is ok but NC and VA isn’t.

California wasn’t gerrymandered.

Exactly, lol. What hackish thing to say. You know if CA were gerrymandered, Ds would have another 10 seats or something around those lines.

[Dr. Arch]

That is at least a D+45 outcome...

I'm growing more confident in Sinema, Rosen, and McCaskill winning.

With these kinds of margins, TX and TN are very possible surprises.

[Dr. Arch]

Politico/MC shows D+2 (was previously R+1). This means the GOP loses 1000 seats in November.

https://morningconsult.com/2018/02/28/half-of-voters-support-arming-teachers-as-gop-support-for-gun-control-rises/

#Limonalysis

[Dr. Arch]

Trump, Ricketts and Fischer all deeply underwater in NE-02

Trump:

38% Approve
54% Disapprove

Ricketts

34% Approve
50% Disapprove

Fischer

33% Approve
45% Disapprove

RIP Don Bacon

Hmm... NE-02 is certainly looking like an easy flip.

[Dr. Arch]

What happened to Limo?

He's been sent off to purgatory.

Clarification?

[Dr. Arch]

What happened to Limo?

He's been sent off to purgatory.

Clarification?

He has his own special isolation thread now.

Great

[Dr. Arch]

Remember what I've been telling you guys for the longest time now? 70 seats!

https://www.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/976113599012921344

Must see to believe for me. However, if it does happen, I'll certainly welcome it.

[Dr. Arch]

I don't think I was attacking Barron in any way. I sympathize with the kid. It can't be easy being the son of a popular President. That's kind of what I was trying to say.

Popular???

[Dr. Arch]

NBC: D+7
"Ethusasim for midterm" D:66% v R:49%
 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-shows-democrats-have-midterm-intensity-advantage-no-knockout-yet-n865916

Huge gap

[Dr. Arch]

Even in the most skewed polls, Republicans have not had a lead in the generic ballot for this cycle to date.

[Dr. Arch]

Even in the most skewed polls, Republicans have not had a lead in the generic ballot for this cycle to date.

Morning Consult, IIRC, gave them a one point lead a couple of months ago.

Nope: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

[Dr. Arch]

Has enthusiasm level shown a more significant relations to actual results than the generic ballot in the past?

Enthusiasm is everything.

[Dr. Arch]

Link: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Montana_June_2018.pdf

Williams (D): 49
Gianforte (R): 43

469 LV; June 11-13

[Dr. Arch]

Seems that Comstock is DoA.