2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Doimper]

Folks it's January

[Doimper]

I think Dems will narrowly miss taking the House, big gains in CA,PA,NY and other suburban districts but middling elsewhere notably the rust belt to get to the 210-216 range. Hopefully Pelosi will finally get the boot then.

Why, because a couple of polls 10 months out have moved back towards the incumbent party? They'll head the other direction soon enough.

Don't you know that trends in the generic ballot stay that way forever? That's why Democrats won by 30 in 2014.

[Doimper]

It's clear the Democrats have a massive problem. Yougov went from D+6 to D+4 this week even as Trump's approval went down. Disastrous month.

If this is true, it’s going to be worse then I thought, by the way can you post the yougov poll?

yeah whoa you guys are so smart. the numbers going down means democrats wont do good, i cant belive that they dont see that? there so dumb that even TRUMP has insmarted them

[Doimper]

So much for those predictions, huh?

Anyway, it's still very early.

Please don't quote the moron, thanks.

[Doimper]

Clearly Democrats are doomed. LimoLiberal's hot take is all we need to pay attention to.

Have you guys considered banning the moron that's cheerfully sh**tting everywhere?

[Doimper]

Clearly Democrats are doomed. LimoLiberal's hot take is all we need to pay attention to.

Have you guys considered banning the moron that's cheerfully sh**tting everywhere?

I can't ban him, and I'm probably in a minority if not alone among the mods who think career trolls like him should be banned.

But if he keeps posting commentary meant to incite arguments then I'll consider moving his posts and threads to a single megathread.

I tend to think that individual moderators should be trusted with the power to ban people instead of being forced to hand trolls off to whatever convoluted deliberation process Dave makes you guys go through, but I guess I'm in the minority.

[Doimper]

Democrats led in generic ballot polls as late as October 2010 and November 2014. It's January. You all need Xanax.

[Doimper]

Quinipiac has D+15. 53 - 38.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2521

COLLAPSE

[Doimper]

Would love to see these. But behind the politico pro wall.

https://twitter.com/POLITICOPro/status/966297705575264257

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's annoying.

[Doimper]

That PPP polling suggests the Republicans have made significant gains since November. Patriot Majority had PPP poll some of the districts in November, and look at the changes.


Went from D+12 in CA-25 to D+2
Phillips led in MN-03 by 4 and now leads by 3
Generic D led Frelinghuysen in NJ-11 by 2, Sherill now is down by 2 to Generic R
Generic D led Faso by 6 in NY-19, and now is tied.

Massive R swings. No wonder some House Ds are in panic mode.

Will you delete your account if the House flips?

No? I'll be extremely happy?

I don't really get why you're making so many conclusions and sounding alarms after every poll. Your reactions and prognostications from polls read like you're an on-edge activist in October, not February. Seriously, just calm down already lol

Maybe try posting polls without any commentary for a change, regardless if it is good or bad for Democrats.

He's said that he does it to troll and for validation. He's not going to stop his weird schtick.

[Doimper]

I don't mean to contribute/encourage the paranoia, but a CA-49 poll


EM3 Research (for Flip the 49th)
Feb 12-15 (750 voters, +/- 4.9% MoE)


Generic Democrat: 48%
Generic Republican: 41%
Don't Know: 11%


(After receiving positive candidate information)
Doug Applegate (D):   19%
Rocky Chavez (R):   17%
Diane Harkey (R):   17%
Mike Levin (D):   16%
Kristin Gaspar (R):   9%
Sara Jacobs (D):   7%
Paul Kerr (D):   3%
Christina Prejean (D):   1%
Other/Don’t Know:   10%

(After receiving negative candidate information)
Rocky Chavez (R):   18%
Diane Harkey (R):   18%
Doug Applegate (D):   17%
Mike Levin (D):   13%
Kristin Gaspar (R):   8%
Sara Jacobs (D):   8%
Paul Kerr (D):   2%
Christina Prejean (D):   1%
Other/Don’t Know:   17%

The alternative takeaway from this is that we could see an Applegate vs. Levin general. That would be hilarious, coming after all the hysterics about a possible R vs. R matchup.

[Doimper]

Half of Kansas' House delegation being Democratic in 2019 would be interesting.

Thompson is running again in KS-04, so there's probably even a universe where we get three out of four Kansas seats in November. Not that that's likely to happen, of course.

[Doimper]

Limo is also on RRH again this morning posting the same links over there. Really not that smart, Andrew.

Can you explain the limo = andrew from rrh thing? (also what is rrh)

RRH stands for Real Rowdy Hacks. It's a political prognostication fetish site, where LimoLiberal also posts lurid fantasies about Democratic midterm losses (to the great pleasure of the more masochistically-minded posters there).

[Doimper]

CNN:

Democrats 54%
Republicans 38%

Source

ENTHUSIASTIC VOTERS
Choice for Congress
 
Democrat           61%
Republican         35%


Lordy...

I'd be interested in knowing how this compares to 2010, 2006, 2008, 1994, etc.

[Doimper]

The online polls, as usual, are junk.

[Doimper]

People here are getting way too worked up about a weird kid in high school seeking validation.

[Doimper]

Ojeda apparently has internal polling that shows him winning Republicans

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Doimper]

I can see Ojeda winning the seat, and by a larger margin than conventional wisdom dictates, but also winning Republican voters? I don't know. He should hire another pollster to get a second opinion.

I'm surprised he had enough money to hire this one.

Yeah, he's not doing well financially. Makes sense, since the Manchin machine hates him and the DCCC isn't going to give a dime to a Trump voter, but money can only go so far in a rural West Virginian district.

[Doimper]

Ipsos/Reuters, Feb. 25 - March 1, 1224 RV

D 43, R 33 (D+10)

Previous: D 40, R 37 (D+3)

Collapse.

[Doimper]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Can somebody explain the logic of this to me? Why is the NRCC pouring money into this race? Let Saccone sink or swim on his own, and if he goes down they can just find a candidate that's not so abjectly awful to run for the new 14th in November. I don't think that avoiding the humiliation of losing a district in deep Trump country is worth millions of dollars.

[Doimper]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Can somebody explain the logic of this to me? Why is the NRCC pouring money into this race? Let Saccone sink or swim on his own, and if he goes down they can just find a candidate that's not so abjectly awful to run for the new 14th in November. I don't think that avoiding the humiliation of losing a district in deep Trump country is worth millions of dollars.

Because if they lose this race there will be possibly another wave of retirements which will make their control of the House even more tenuous.

I want to believe that congresspeople base their decision to retire off more than the variance of a few points in a special election, but you're probably right. A Lamb +.5 victory would be much more impactful than a Saccone +.5 victory, even though the swing from 2016 would be about the same.

[Doimper]

So does Monmouth. Their last poll (1/28 - 1/30) showed Democrats up 2, in December they had Democrats up 15. My guess: It’ll be D+6 or 7 this time.

Sources say differently, but we'll see how reliable this guy is.

If you're actually in high school, how do you have "sources"?

[Doimper]

What happened to Limo?

He's been sent off to purgatory.

[Doimper]

What happened to Limo?

He's been sent off to purgatory.

Clarification?

He has his own special isolation thread now.

[Doimper]

NY-11 Republican Primary: Donovan and Grimm both release polls showing a lead respectively.

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/973257617647775747

lol