2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[LimoLiberal]

Can this be the house polling thread too? Like 2018 "Congressional Generic/House Polls"? So we can put district polls in here when they start trickling out.

[LimoLiberal]

Another live caller poll showing Democrats are not winning the generic ballot enough to win the house.

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/954476501965164544

NBC/WSJ 1/19
 
D+6 (-5)

[LimoLiberal]

Live caller polls released in the past few days:

Qpac: D+11 (-6)
Marist: D+6 (-7)
NBC/WSJ: D+6 (-5)
Pew: D+14 (no prior poll)

That's a collapse if I've ever seen one.

[LimoLiberal]

>D+14
>Collapse

3/4 polls had Democrats losing 5-7 points. Collapse.

[LimoLiberal]

It's gonna be a long 10 months if you overreact to everyone movement in the GCB polls.

Josh Kraushaar speculates that the movement to Rs is a result of the incredible economy and the tax cut allowing Rs to take credit for it.

If that's true, their average standing will only improve going into November as the economy keeps growing.

[LimoLiberal]

http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/21/politics/cnn-poll-midterm-elections-generic-congressional/index.html

D: 49%
R: 44%

Thanks for actually formatting that.

Not sure why CNN is running with at as a bad number for Dems.

It's a bad trend for D's relative to previous CNN polls.  Their last two results were D+18 in December and D+11 in November.

And LimoLiberal is already running with it over at RRH

lol I just woke up.

My real reaction to this poll:

The Democrats are not going to take the House.

[LimoLiberal]

Morning Consult goes from D+3 to D+6.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

Happy!

[LimoLiberal]

CA-39: Young Kim (R) leads potential Democratic challengers

http://www.anaheimblog.net/2018/01/18/cd39-did-beltway-prognosticators-overreact-to-royce-retirement/

Remington Research, and they don't give the actual poll release so take it with a grain of salt.

But it shows generic ballot 47-47 TIED, and Trump approval 45-49 (in a district he lost by 8 points!).

There is two matchups between Assemblywoman Young Kim (R), who has the endorsement of Royce, and possible democratic challengers.

Kim (R): 41
Cisneros (D): 38

Kim (R): 42
Tranh (D): 33

One of the worst polls I've seen for Democrats since the 2016 election.

[LimoLiberal]

CA-39: Young Kim (R) leads potential Democratic challengers

http://www.anaheimblog.net/2018/01/18/cd39-did-beltway-prognosticators-overreact-to-royce-retirement/

Remington Research, and they don't give the actual poll release so take it with a grain of salt.

But it shows generic ballot 47-47 TIED, and Trump approval 45-49 (in a district he lost by 8 points!).

There is two matchups between Assemblywoman Young Kim (R), who has the endorsement of Royce, and possible democratic challengers.

Kim (R): 41
Cisneros (D): 38

Kim (R): 42
Tranh (D): 33

One of the worst polls I've seen for Democrats since the 2016 election.

snip

Lol at the casual racist remark thrown in here.

Mods, srsly

What is the racist remark? I wrote nothing racist consciously in the original post.

Edit: Oh it was King Lear's post, not mine.

[LimoLiberal]

Reuters Ipsos went from D+5 to D+6. Not enough to take the House.

[LimoLiberal]

I think the Cali seats are going to be a lot tougher than people think. The whole 'sanctuary state' stuff may be energizing conservatives there.

I question the effectiveness of "SANCTUARY CITIES HISPANICS ILLEGALS KILL YOUR CHILDREN" in districts that are 20-40% Hispanic when it was completely unsucessful in Virginia.

Gillespie also failed epically in suburban districts, and basically all of the California seats are suburban.

[LimoLiberal]

It's clear the Democrats have a massive problem. Yougov went from D+6 to D+4 this week even as Trump's approval went down. Disastrous month.

[LimoLiberal]

It's clear the Democrats have a massive problem. Yougov went from D+6 to D+4 this week even as Trump's approval went down. Disastrous month.

If this is true, it’s going to be worse then I thought, by the way can you post the yougov poll?

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mhd1jcnn1c/econToplines.pdf

Question 81. 41-37.

[LimoLiberal]

FOX

Dems: 44%
GOP: 38%


They had Trump's approval rating rebound. This is absolutely catastrophic for the GOP if the Democrats are leading by this much in a Fox poll.

change from last poll

44 (-6)
38 (+3)

[LimoLiberal]

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/01/25/mia-love-has-a-small-lead-over-ben-mcadams-in-exceptionally-close-race-to-represent-utah-in-congress-new-poll-shows/

UT-4: Love 47, McAdams 42

I love that Trump approval number. 42-56. In a district he won 39-32-22.

[LimoLiberal]

Quinnipiac:
Democrats 51
Republicans 38

I don't see how the Dems make gains with numbers like this.

It is quite worrying that their are so many undecideds in these polls, this poll has 11% undecideds, and if past elections (ie. 2016 and 2014) are any guide, we know undecideds tend to break Republican. This means that to be safe you really should cut the Democratic lead in half in most of these polls with high undecideds.

It is quite worrying for Republicans that their are so many undecideds in these polls, this poll has 11% undecideds, and if past elections (ie. Virginia and Alabama) are any guide, we know undecideds tend to break Democratic. This means that to be safe you really should double the Democratic lead in most of these polls with high undecideds.

[LimoLiberal]

Quinnipiac:
Democrats 51
Republicans 38

I don't see how the Dems make gains with numbers like this.

It is quite worrying that their are so many undecideds in these polls, this poll has 11% undecideds, and if past elections (ie. 2016 and 2014) are any guide, we know undecideds tend to break Republican. This means that to be safe you really should cut the Democratic lead in half in most of these polls with high undecideds.

It is quite worrying for Republicans that their are so many undecideds in these polls, this poll has 11% undecideds, and if past elections (ie. Virginia and Alabama) are any guide, we know undecideds tend to break Democratic. This means that to be safe you really should double the Democratic lead in most of these polls with high undecideds.

Why are you picking a fight with me? don't you realize I'm one of the only people that stick up for you here.

Friendships are overrated.

[LimoLiberal]

Rasmussen is doing some generic ballot polls now.

1/28, 2018 Generic Ballot

Democrats: 45
Republicans: 37

D+8

[LimoLiberal]

Inside sources are telling me the Democratic generic ballot lead on this poll will be below 5: https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/958556597369868288

[LimoLiberal]

Yougov/Economist 1/30

Democrats: 42
Republicans: 37

D+5, not enough to win the House. Collapse.

And Reuters/Ipsos went from D+8 to D+7.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/958757096723566592

"Not for nothing, as the kids say. But we're releasing some poll numbers in 20 minutes that could represent a blip or might portend a shift in public opinion. Some news day, eh?"

[LimoLiberal]

Monmouth

Democrats: 47 (-4)
Republicans: 45 (+9)


Holy hell.

Nancy Pelosi seen bawling her eyes out in the corner.

[LimoLiberal]

Clearly Democrats are doomed. LimoLiberal's hot take is all we need to pay attention to.

Have you guys considered banning the moron that's cheerfully sh**tting everywhere?

The moron that correctly predicted the results of a poll before it was released... and has been the only person who correctly identified the Trump and GOP surge in polling.

[LimoLiberal]

For concern trolls like Limo...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html

You'll underperform the Generic Ballot by 3?

Lol. They can't accept that the blue wave is crumbling.

[LimoLiberal]

Perhaps it'd be better if we just all logged off and came back in November because this sucks.

Yep. That's what I'm going to do. I'll be back in late February for the Pennsylvania special election. These polls give me so much anxiety because I genuinely think that our country will crumble if Republicans still hold power in 2019. I know all of you think that I'm a secret Republican or that King Lear is my sock or that I post on RRH, but no. I'm a Democrat who believes that the Republicans and Trump will win over voters this year.

Anyways, bye. I'll hope for some good polls in the mean time.

Feel free to celebrate