2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Nate Cohn's thoughts on this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And Harry Enten's:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Everyone needs to stop freaking out.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The same CNN poll mirrors the same edge the Dems had janurary 2006.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

CA-39: Young Kim (R) leads potential Democratic challengers

http://www.anaheimblog.net/2018/01/18/cd39-did-beltway-prognosticators-overreact-to-royce-retirement/

Remington Research, and they don't give the actual poll release so take it with a grain of salt.

But it shows generic ballot 47-47 TIED, and Trump approval 45-49 (in a district he lost by 8 points!).

There is two matchups between Assemblywoman Young Kim (R), who has the endorsement of Royce, and possible democratic challengers.

Kim (R): 41
Cisneros (D): 38

Kim (R): 42
Tranh (D): 33

One of the worst polls I've seen for Democrats since the 2016 election.

What? Royce won reelection to this district with 57% of the vote. Stop trolling.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

FOX

Dems: 44%
GOP: 38%


They had Trump's approval rating rebound. This is absolutely catastrophic for the GOP if the Democrats are leading by this much in a Fox poll.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/958556597369868288

The tweet is by Monmouth and it says:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No need to see what Limo said.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Meh. Not concerned.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Trump has a 42% approval rating in that poll.

If he is hanging around that number, then it doesn't matter what the generic ballot lead is.

This. The economy has never been a major factor in midterms... well, sometimes it has but the popularity of a president is more important.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This poll isn't great for Dems, but there is nothing to worry about. Of course they should still look at it and fix their strategy, but there were polls similar like this where the Democrats were beating the GOP in 2010 and then lost. We need to look at the environment and history, both of which heavily favor the Democrats.

* Dem candidates outraising Reps by miles
* Record number of GOP politicians resigning
* Highly unpopular President

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Clearly Democrats are doomed. LimoLiberal's hot take is all we need to pay attention to.

Have you guys considered banning the moron that's cheerfully sh**tting everywhere?

Yeah, you're still a moron. Why? Well, let me lay this out for you: it's one poll, you thought the PA35 special election was going to be competitive despite the fact the Democrat won with 75% of the vote, you thought an overcast in northern Virginia would cost Ralph Northam the election, you think little bumps in the approval ratings means a surge, and you talked about a "collapse" in the Economist poll despite the fact the Democrats INCREASED their margin from the last one.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Even with that Monmouth poll, the RCP average still has the Democrats up by 7.5

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Monmouth

Democrats: 47 (-4)
Republicans: 45 (+9)


Holy hell.

Nancy Pelosi seen bawling her eyes out in the corner.

Yawn....these the same polls that had Hillary winning in a landslide? Rofl

Bad poll - FAKE NEWS

Good poll - WINNING!!! #MAGA

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

For concern trolls like Limo...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

For concern trolls like Limo...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html

You'll underperform the Generic Ballot by 3?

Lol. They can't accept that the blue wave is crumbling.

@Madigan you missed the point.

@LimoLiberal Obviously you didn't click on the link.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah, you two missed the point. Go look at the polls in January 2010 and then look at the final result in November 2010.

From D+2 to R+9

For the love of God... The opposition party (GOP) consistently outpolled the Democrats by significant margins. They dipped in the summer and the Dems lead a few polls but the GOP ultimately won big.

Right now the Dems and the GOP have switched places.

You're so daft.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The national environment, fundraising, and human capital of candidates are what's going to help the Dems win. These doomsday posts about their chances "dying" are knee-jerk reactions to the Monmouth poll.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

My feeling is that an increase in Trumps approval will correspond to better congressional poll results for Republicans. 

Here's my theory.  Trump has been cast as a Radical Republican. I think people see congressional lawmakers as more centrist and appropriate. If more people approve of Trump that indicates to me that people are not just leaning Republican, but becoming base supporters of Trump.  As a consequence, Republicans will have a larger base to work with during the mid-term elections. 

I think the key number is 47 for Trump's approval ratings.  That would represent a 6 points swing and save the Republicans from any meaningful losses.  Remember that Trump won the election with 46% of the vote and congressional Republicans dominated.  If he starts to exceed 48, the Democrats are in big s##t trouble.  Over 50% and it becomes a disaster. 

You didn't see this number correspond with Obama's approval rating, because Democrats don't show up in big numbers during mid-term elections and Democrats were not viewed so favorably in many congressional districts.  Obama seemed reasonable and centrist to the blue collar voter, but Democrats did not.  We have the opposite situation working today in which people view Republicans more favorably than Trump. 

Polls have showed that Trump's favorable rating is much higher than the Republican party's...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

NBC/Survey Monkey

Democrats: 45%
Republicans: 39%

I couldn't find a previous NBC/Survey Monkey poll, but according to 538 the last NBC poll was with Wall Street and it was

Democrats: 49%
Republicans: 43%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Per DKE... ABC has a poll showing GCB at D+14

"Maybe it's just noise!"

-Nate Silver

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Morning Consult has consistently been R friendly. Taking into account the swings in the special elections, the fundraising numbers, the enthusiasm of the left, and Trump's general unpopularity, I'd say Ispos is more in-line with the current state of the midterms.

Anyways, I expect the vast majority of undecideds to break for the Democrats in November, and Consult's poll shows a lot of them.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Hill is already ovulating over the MC poll...

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/373761-poll-gop-erases-dem-advantage-on-generic-ballot-ahead-of-midterms

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

"only" below water. a -9 approval in ARIZONA is enough for it to flip for even the most mediocre Dem candidate.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

"only" below water. a -9 approval in ARIZONA is enough for it to flip for even the most mediocre Dem candidate.

He is -6 in job approval in a district he lost by 5. That bodes well for him statewide. I think you're misunderstanding my post.

-6 in a Clinton/Republican district? Wow, that's awesome news for the Democrats!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

More evidence that Morning Consult poll is absolute trash:

Dems only lead the GOP by 4 points when it comes to which party the public trusts more on healthcare, and yet, the GOP leads by 6 points on immigration despite the fact DACA is popular and championed by the Democrats. MC is garbage.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The GOP should be sh**tting themselves over that PA18 poll.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

In light of the Florida shootings, I expect the momentum to shift back to the Democrats.