2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Hindsight was 2020]

Folks it's January

[Hindsight was 2020]

Hey Arkansas 1st midterms are normally as bad for president as second

[Hindsight was 2020]

Abc has dems up 12 and winning indies by 16 https://mobile.twitter.com/ThisWeekABC/status/955411033031626752

[Hindsight was 2020]

Yougov/Economist 1/30

Democrats: 42
Republicans: 37

And Reuters/Ipsos went from D+8 to D+7.

This is an improvement from their previous poll which was

Democrats: 41
Republicans: 37

You expect Limo not to be a hack

[Hindsight was 2020]

That's an outliner if I've ever seen one

[Hindsight was 2020]

This poll isn't great for Dems, but there is nothing to worry about. Of course they should still look at it and fix their strategy, but there were polls similar like this where the Democrats were beating the GOP in 2010 and then lost. We need to look at the environment and history, both of which heavily favor the Democrats.

* Dem candidates outraising Reps by miles
* Record number of GOP politicians resigning
* Highly unpopular President

His approvals are going up though...fox, cnn, and mounmouth  have all shown upticks. Democrats shouldn’t take their natural advantage this year for granted, especially when the DNC is 200k away from insolvency when the GOP has millions in cash on hand plus the Koch network.
Apples and oranges. The GOP relies on the RNC for funding while dems rely on the DCCC which has seen a fundraising boom

[Hindsight was 2020]

A senate wave?
Okay who is beating Brown? Tester? Baldwin? Casey? Stabenow?

[Hindsight was 2020]

ABC has dems up 14 but more importantly have a massive enthusiasm gap as 51% of dems are "highly motivated to vote" vs only 34% rep http://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/strength-party-strongholds-key-midterm-outcomes-poll/story?id=52795264&__twitter_impression=true

[Hindsight was 2020]

As if having Trump barely underwater in Virgina wasn't enough to prove that Morning Consult poll is a joke

[Hindsight was 2020]

I heard on Twitter that PPP has a new poll that has dems up 8 on CGB

[Hindsight was 2020]

This is an outlier but this does point to January's numbers just being a small bump

[Hindsight was 2020]

I don't know where to put this but Texas early voting started today and in Harris county rep Ev turnout is up 25% from 2014 while dem Ev turnout is up 300% from 2014!!!! https://mobile.twitter.com/profJKAiyer/status/966125899186950146

[Hindsight was 2020]

Limo is also on RRH again this morning posting the same links over there. Really not that smart, Andrew.

No dude. Today I went to English class, did a timed writing about Catcher in the Rye, and then AP GOV, where we learned about party primaries (I already know a lot). Now I have a little free time. I'm going to continue countering your bullsh**t with my actual life until you stop with the RRH stuff.

...

Lol I spend hours on political forums and websites. That doesn't make me an expert by any means. But the AP GOV class, designed for teenagers with little to no political knowledge, is obviously easier for me. Not me bragging, just you being a jerk.

Perhaps pay attention more when they go over voting theory and rationality then, since your Governor Gillespie and Senator Moore +27 predictions were so wonderfully indicative of your political knowledge.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CdLqerS0A6M

[Hindsight was 2020]

UncleSam the reason we get mad at Lear or limo for that matter when they say the R's will have a good midterm is they back it up the same way. It always either citing Rasumessen daily tracker of Trump's approval or more obnoxiously point to Trump going from 38 to 41 or CGB going from D+8 to D+6 and screaming "this trend holds up dems are doomed". All the while ignoring the 3-4 other polls coming out that has Trump in the high 30's or dems in the +8 to +9 range

[Hindsight was 2020]

Trump, Ricketts and Fischer all deeply underwater in NE-02

Trump:

38% Approve
54% Disapprove

Ricketts

34% Approve
50% Disapprove

Fischer

33% Approve
45% Disapprove

RIP Don Bacon

Hmm... NE-02 is certainly looking like an easy flip.

This shows the suburban decline for the GOP is wide spread

[Hindsight was 2020]

I'm not hearing anything one way or the other about the Monmouth poll on my end.

I'm hearing positive Trump approval.

lol

Even if that happens, how on earth would you have sources telling you the contents of some university poll?

Don't feed the troll

[Hindsight was 2020]

We hear a lot of talk about California and Pennsylvania but don't be surprised if the dems do really in Virginia. I wouldn't be shocked (especially if it's Corey vs Tim in the senate) if the dems pick up the 2nd, 5th, 7th, and 10th

[Hindsight was 2020]

Quinnipiac Generic Ballot
Democrats - 49
Republicans - 43

D+6. That's the best number for Republicans for a very very long time in Qpac.

An it's still awful

[Hindsight was 2020]

Quinnipiac Generic Ballot
Democrats - 49
Republicans - 43

D+6. That's the best number for Republicans for a very very long time in Qpac.

I'm actually confused then why the gap isn't bigger? Do they have more indies breaking GOP?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gold Standard California PPIC poll

http://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-march-2018/

Generic Ballot

Democrats - 53
Republicans - 39

So D+14. In 2016 the aggregated house of reps vote in California was 62-37 (D+25). So this poll would represent a 11 point decrease from that for Democrats.

-________________-

[Hindsight was 2020]

Oh god is this that time of the year again  when Trump approval goes slightly up and CGB tightens a bit and Atlas has a freaks out

[Hindsight was 2020]

It’s really amazing to see the Democratic lead collapse again, this is starting to get very reminiscent of the 2016 election where Hillary would take a big lead and then a couple weeks later Trump would start surging, and it would go back and forth like that until Election Day happened to occur during a week Trump was surging. My gut tells me the Democratic lead will fluctuate between now and November, but when the election happens, it will be when Republicans are on an upswing, thus resulting in them holding the House and gaining several senate seats.

An when it goes back up again (like it does every time) you'll disappear

[Hindsight was 2020]

No one show Lear https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/980142373631033344

[Hindsight was 2020]

New Jersey Congressional Ballot, Stockton Poll 3/22-29

https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2018-0404-poll-wfs-2.pdf

Democrats - 48
Republicans - 32

D+16.

In 2016, Democrats won 54-46 (D+8) in the House of Representatives vote in the state of New Jersey.

For all the talk of California and Texas get the path to the house might end up running through NJ and Pennsylvania

[Hindsight was 2020]

So everyone is stable and Q has a weird sample. It happens and doesn't really point to a dem collapse but this is Atlas so I'm drinking bleach