2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Arkansas Yankee]

2006 and 2018 are quite different midterms.

2006 was GW’s 2nd midterm.  2nd midterms have been often very bad elections for the incumbentPresidential party.  The economy was middling.  The Iraqi  war was not going well. The current tribal nature of the parties had nots set up yet.  Plus there was Mark Foley’s sex scandal.

Regardless of whether Trump is re-elected, 2018 will be his 1st midterm.  There will be no 2nd term drag.
The economy is doing well.   I believe the tax cut will be viewed favorably. A tribal nature of voting has seemingly set up.
 
A Democrat 7.3% generic lead in 2018 might reflect a very different electoral layout than a similar advantage in 2006. Generally the GOP does somewhat better than its generic.  It is also likely that the Democrat advantage may be based on very strong numbers in the northeast and the west coast.   Thus the GOP may do fairly well in Trump carried states and especially in the Senate.

In addition any generic average including a Pew poll is highly suspect.

I understand polls are just a snap shot of the possible election outcome at the time of the poll.

The crazy thing is that most of the posters here, including me, let these polls effect our emotional well being.

[Arkansas Yankee]

RCL shows the collapse of the Democratic margin in several polls from December to January:

CNN  +18 to +5
Monmouth +15 to +2
Reuters/Ipsos +12 to +6
Economist/Yougov +9 to +5
NBC News/Wall St. Junk.  +11 to +6

Does this mean no Democrat wave in the House? Possibly.  Possibly not. 

However, these changes indicate the GOP might be able to reduce the size of the wave. They also indicate the GOP might be able to pull off a Senate wave.

The main reason for the wave in 2010 was the low turnout of younger Democrat voters compared to older GOP voters.  A Democrat wave this year depends on the reversal of these turnouts. If the GOP is able to reduce the difference in turnout, it can reduce the wave in the House and create the GOP wave in the Senate. This is possible because older voter have a history of turning out well in midterms.

Unlike LimoLiberal I look forward to such a turn of events.

[Arkansas Yankee]

A senate wave?
Okay who is beating Brown? Tester? Baldwin? Casey? Stabenow?

A GOP Senate wave would result from keeping Nevada and Arizona and picking up Missouri, Indiana, North Dakota, West Virginia, and Florida and/0r Pennsylvania.

Do I think it will happen? No.  But then I did not think Trump would win.

[Arkansas Yankee]

ND
Heitkamp - 57.2
Campbell - 39.4

A PPP poll in June had Feingold ahead of Johnson 50% to 37%:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/PPP_WI_June_2016.pdf

A Monmouth poll in late August had Feingold ahead 54% to 41%

Only one published poll in October had Johnson in the lead.

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/wi/wisconsin_senate_johnson_vs_feingold-3740.html#polls

You just cannot live by polls.  Never give up at least in a state where your party has a good base.

[Arkansas Yankee]

PA 18 will be the first good test.   Trump is almost even in approval in PA in the Morning consult poll.  Both parties are significantly involved.nt the issue.  What

I believe the Democrats need to take Trump’s bargain on immigration, if they do not want a backlash.  The majority actually support the parts of the bargain.  Then you can hope Trump’s base revolts against nearly 2 million in effect given amnesty.

But then what do I know about how Democrats think?  You may want the issue.  Whatever!

[Arkansas Yankee]

PA 18 will be the first good test.   Trump is almost even in approval in PA in the Morning consult poll.  Both parties are significantly involved.nt the issue.  What

I believe the Democrats need to take Trump’s bargain on immigration, if they do not want a backlash.  The majority actually support the parts of the bargain.  Then you can hope Trump’s base revolts against nearly 2 million in effect given amnesty.

But then what do I know about how Democrats think?  You may want the issue.  Whatever!

I do not think Trump won it by 20..  I can not check it now, as I am headed to a Bible study.

PA 18 will be Saccone +8 imo. Trump won it by almost 20 and the gop is investing a ton into it.

[Arkansas Yankee]

PA 18 will be the first good test.   Trump is almost even in approval in PA in the Morning consult poll.  Both parties are significantly involved.nt the issue.  What

I believe the Democrats need to take Trump’s bargain on immigration, if they do not want a backlash.  The majority actually support the parts of the bargain.  Then you can hope Trump’s base revolts against nearly 2 million in effect given amnesty.

But then what do I know about how Democrats think?  You may want the issue.  Whatever!

I do not think Trump won it by 20..  I can not check it now, as I am headed to a Bible study.

PA 18 will be Saccone +8 imo. Trump won it by almost 20 and the gop is investing a ton into it.

If he did, the swing will count.

[Arkansas Yankee]

RCP average today is at D +4.  It is not below 4 only because your favorite pollster, RASMUSSEN, HAS IT AT D +6.  Whatever.

[Arkansas Yankee]

It is not I who has placed great emphasis on the generic vote this far out.  But the D advantage has been headed down.

Except for 2010 in midterms the GOP has run 3 to 4 points better than the final RCP average. We shall see.

[Arkansas Yankee]

What is not to love about the new Reuters’ poll for a GOPer like me.  R+6.2..  However, until it is confirmed, I view it as a hopeful, pleasant outlier.

I have warned you before do not count Trump out.  He lives under a positive star.  He is a force of nature like Jackson and TR.

I actually believe you will finally beat him.  But do not count on it.

I believe the resistance may be in the process of causing a boomerang.  Be careful or you could get more Trump.

[Arkansas Yankee]

We had anti administration waves in 2006, 2010, and 2014.  Actually history would mitigate against a 4th similar wave.

Evidence of different projections for college educated and non college voters would support such a likelihood.

In 2016 we all know the nation voted like 2 different nations. It may be that division will continue in 2018.  It may we’ll be that national generic polls may well mask this division.

You know in 2016 we were all surprised Trump was elected, that the GOP retained the Senate, and the GOP did not lose more seats in the House. Surprise again.

[Arkansas Yankee]

We had anti administration waves in 2006, 2010, and 2014.  Actually history would mitigate against a 4th similar wave.

Evidence of different projections for college educated and non college voters would support such a likelihood.

In 2016 we all know the nation voted like 2 different nations. It may be that division will continue in 2018.  It may we’ll be that national generic polls may well mask this division.

You know in 2016 we were all surprised Trump was elected, that the GOP retained the Senate, and the GOP did not lose more seats in the House. Surprise again.

Midterms are almost always bad for the party in the white house. Its not a recent trend that started in 2006.

Not Always

In 2002 the GOP gained 8 House seats and 2 Senate seats
In 1998 the GOP actually lost 4 House seats and the Senate numbers did not change
In 1990 the GOP only LOST just 7 seats in the House and 0 in the Senate
In 1982 the Senate was unchanged, the GOP LOST 26 in the House
In 1978 the GOP gained 15 in the House and 2 in the Senate
In 1970 the GOP lost just 2 in the House and gained 3 in the Senate
In 1962 the GOP lost 4 in the House and only gained one in the Senate.

Since 1896 there have never been four successive midterm wave elections.  I do not believe before 1896 either

[Arkansas Yankee]

If you can’t flip the House, it will be because your philosophy or Johnny one note hating Trump is not selling in fly over country.  You then better go back to the drawing boards.

I expect you to flip the House.  If you do not, you will be deemed losers of the election.

In looking at your predictions concerning the Presidential vote in 2020, I am amazed how many of you have Trump winning or doing very well as a loser.  If those predictions are true, if you do not take the House this year, you probably will not do it in 2020.

[Arkansas Yankee]

No enthusiasm gap in CBS poll -->

https://twitter.com/Brand_Allen/status/1003368303065223169

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Hmm...

Republicans are starting to get really aggravated with the Mueller investigation. The economy is humming and Trump is getting the credit. Korea seems to be going well.

Some of you seem to over analyze the poll figures. You make voting into a mathmatical problem.

Some others of you totally ignore the feelings and opinions of those opposed to you.

You got a surprise in 2016.  You could be setting yourselves up for another one this year.  

I know some of you dream of 2006. But what if 2010 was a realigning year with regard to how folks vote in Congressionial elections.  Have you  put that possibility into your analysis?

[Arkansas Yankee]

I know some of you dream of 2006. But what if 2010 was a realigning year with regard to how folks vote in Congressionial elections.  Have you  put that possibility into your analysis?

Republicans already had a realignment in the 1980s, which finally took effect downballot in 1994 and Congress has had a Republican lean to it ever since. 2006 and 2008 were exceptions to this - Dem waves, which toppled Republican majorities. 2010 was simply a backlash to Obama that returned Republicans to control that they were bound to get eventually anyway. If you look at the popular vote totals of elections since the 90s and the general state of the states right now, not a whole lot has changed at the macro level even if the electorate has been shifting underneath.
 
In fact, if anything, Democrats have actually made more progress in terms of expanding their "baseline" Congressional power. Clinton's 2% win won almost as many Congressional districts as Obama 2012, despite having almost half the PV margin. If she got Obama's 3.7%, she likely would have won at least a bare majority of districts.

My realignment is based on an  RCP article I read. I will try to find.   Clearly since 2010 Arkansas has experienced a total realignment.  So I feel it very acutely.  It is an awesome positive change in my opinion.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Prior Bill Clinton most Presidents were discreet enough to not bother the American people with his presence. They did not try to get on TV every day.   Clinton was the first to really work on having an everyday presence.  It enraged me and many folks like me.   I really believe that was part of the 1994 wave.

Now I realize that 24/7 news coverage started during the Carter years.  But Carter, Reagan, and 43 did not seek out an everyday presence on TV. 45 returned to normalcy.   And Obama was not bad either

But now Trump works for coverage everyday.  And he has his stupid tweets. He is attempting to dominate the social media everyday.  He is in the process of actually driving his opposition and the resistance to the polls.  I know he believes he is motivating his supporters.  He may be.  But he is driving an even greater number of his detractors to the polls.

In my opinion that is why there will be an Atlas red wave.  My GOP friends tell me I am overreacting.  But they will get the message on 11/6.

Trump also has no ability to deal with his opposition in a conciliatory manner.  He just enrages his opponents.

Now I will also say the 24/7 rage expressed by the resistance on MSNBC, CNN, and other social media could have a counter effect.

I also believe there is nothing to Russia collusion claims, especially in light of all Trump’s anti Russian actions.  The resistance needs to be carefull not to cause a boomerang.

For the midterms: advantage resistance. For 2020 we will have to wait to see the reaction.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Prior Bill Clinton most Presidents were discreet enough to not bother the American people with his presence. They did not try to get on TV every day.   Clinton was the first to really work on having an everyday presence.  It enraged me and many folks like me.   I really believe that was part of the 1994 wave.

Now I realize that 24/7 news coverage started during the Carter years.  But Carter, Reagan, and 43 did not seek out an everyday presence on TV. 45 returned to normalcy.   And Obama was not bad either

But now Trump works for coverage everyday.  And he has his stupid tweets. He is attempting to dominate the social media everyday.  He is in the process of actually driving his opposition and the resistance to the polls.  I know he believes he is motivating his supporters.  He may be.  But he is driving an even greater number of his detractors to the polls.

In my opinion that is why there will be an Atlas red wave.  My GOP friends tell me I am overreacting.  But they will get the message on 11/6.

Trump also has no ability to deal with his opposition in a conciliatory manner.  He just enrages his opponents.

Now I will also say the 24/7 rage expressed by the resistance on MSNBC, CNN, and other social media could have a counter effect.

I also believe there is nothing to Russia collusion claims, especially in light of all Trump’s anti Russian actions.  The resistance needs to be carefull not to cause a boomerang.

For the midterms: advantage resistance. For 2020 we will have to wait to see the reaction.

I agree with the first half of this post. Trump’s narcissism is his own Achilles heel. A President who would just shut up and not be a d!ck every five seconds would be at 60% approvals in this economic environment, IMO.

True.  But if Trump weren't the way he is, he wouldn't have been elected.

That... yeah that’s depressingly true too.

That is debatable.  It may have gotten his base.  He only got my family because we so disliked Hillary so.  His tweeting drove off large segments of normally Republican voters.

Berney was not the answer.   Biden was probably the answer.  But the crazy Democrats wanted to break a glass ceiling.

[Arkansas Yankee]

It definitely got him through the primary.

It did make him weaker in the general, but he was vs Hillary, so he was still able to win anyways.

He got through the primary due to
     
       1. Divided Field
       2. Democrat help : http://observer.com/2016/10/wikileaks-reveals-dnc-elevated-trump-to-help-clinton/
       3. Joe Scarborough and his girlfriend Mika
       4. Jeb Bush, Joe Scarborough, and Cuz destruction of Rubio the only candidate who could have defeated both Trump and Hillary.  I admit Rubio assisted.  But a united front would have carried him through.

[Arkansas Yankee]

It definitely got him through the primary.

It did make him weaker in the general, but he was vs Hillary, so he was still able to win anyways.

He got through the primary due to
     
       1. Divided Field
       2. Democrat help : http://observer.com/2016/10/wikileaks-reveals-dnc-elevated-trump-to-help-clinton/
       3. Joe Scarborough and his girlfriend Mika
       4. Jeb Bush, Joe Scarborough, and Cuz destruction of Rubio the only candidate who could have defeated both Trump and Hillary.  I admit Rubio assisted.  But a united front would have carried him through.

I dunno. I think Ted Cruz would have been the only person who could beat him in a 1v1. And even then I doubt it. Trump got in the high 40s despite the divided field.

I wouldn't put a ton into him being high 40s in the final nationwide result, given that 23% of his votes were from the final 9 primaries where everyone else had dropped out.

Who knows?

Interesting question.  If there had been no Trump, might Hillary have been indicted?

[Arkansas Yankee]

 Why do you say that.


If not would Comy have still done what he did.  If he did I believe any Republican would have beaten Hillary.  The more I think about it AND know and how obnoxious Trumps tweets are, There was no way Hillary could win the election once knowledge of her personal sever came to light and Comey gave an exoneration.  The Democrat leaders and Comey elected Trump. LOL MANY TIMES.

[Arkansas Yankee]

The reason that Democrats will vote at a greater rate this year is that they hate or dislike Trump as much as Republicans hated or disliked Obama or would have hated or disliked Hillary.  There has been some of that type of partisan dislike through out or history.   But now it has reached a crescendo due to large policy differences that have not been as great since the 1850s. We know what resulted from those differences.

Has it possibly come time to split? Probably not.  But the divisions are very deep.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I just think it's a shame that it took DONALD TRUMP becoming PRESIDENT to get people motivated enough to vote. Let that sink in for moment: DONALD TRUMP as PRESIDENT.

Reagan should have been enough. The right-wing revolution of 1994 should have been enough. The Bushes should have been enough. The Tea Party should have been enough. But no. It took DONALD TRUMP.

You were not motivated in 2008 when songs of worship were written in behalf of Obama and when he claimed he would heal the seas? I do not believe it.

I thought Democrats were motivated in 2006, too.  So don’t belly ache and whine. You’ve gotten your share of victories.
Mavbe if you had not sacrificed your party to the Clintons.  To have Hillary you were willing to give up,the Presidency and the courts.

[Arkansas Yankee]

According to Pew, “Trump is turbocharging” voters on both sides.  Pew is predicting an election different than those in 2006, 2010, or 2014. 

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/20/poll-voter-enthusiasm-trump-655682

Gingrich is predicting a GOP wave

http://video.foxnews.com/v/5794479452001/?#sp=show-clips

Political events do not repeat exactly alike forever.

Please do not have a stroke or light your hair on fire.  Consider the possibility. 

Consider what happens if Russiagate fizzles and North Korea de-arming takes hold.

[Arkansas Yankee]

According to Pew, “Trump is turbocharging” voters on both sides.  Pew is predicting an election different than those in 2006, 2010, or 2014.  

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/20/poll-voter-enthusiasm-trump-655682

Gingrich is predicting a GOP wave

http://video.foxnews.com/v/5794479452001/?#sp=show-clips

Political events do not repeat exactly alike forever.

Please do not have a stroke or light your hair on fire.  Consider the possibility.  

Consider what happens if Russiagate fizzles and North Korea de-arming takes hold.

That link already had its own thread yesterday.

You're right, political events don't repeat alike forever. Each wave is different, not alike . The midterm dynamic of the president's party losing ground is a time-tested event with very strict conditions for an exception - conditions that Trump isn't even close to meeting.

I just find it funny how so many Republicans have somehow convinced themselves that they are exempt from this. That their midterms will be different, and that they will perhaps not even lose but gain ground. This is raw, unbridled partisanship talking, not any sort of objective analysis. No doubt it is aided by all the wins Republicans have racked up since Obama was first elected, and has given Republicans this sense of invincibility when in fact the past 8 years' worth of election results has a pretty obvious and totally unexceptional root cause: A Democratic president who was often unpopular or neutral at best, combined with a successor candidate who was a walking scandal machine with no natural ability to charm her audience. And yet, despite what at least I see as painfully obvious, people like LimoLiberal (you also give me this impression with posts like that) seem completely oblivious, having grown up in a world where the vast majority of elections favored Republicans, and thus lack any objective idea of how elections work. No matter what data or trends they read, there is always a voice in the back of their head sayinge Republicans will win somehow.

I do not spend 24/7 on this site.  I miss some threads.

My son sent me this information to cheer me up. You may not have noticed, the but I posted here a few days ago that I believed a Democrat wave is coming.   I told my son it is a nice theory, but still has to validated by some election victories.  So, I will have to hope, but verify.

The idea in the article was not mine.  It was raised by Pew and set forth in Politico.  Neither are arms of the Republican Party.

I am not oblivious to the danger.  In 2010 and 2014 I worked diligently not to get excited until election night. I would suggest some of you need to develop some caution.

The 2016 election should give you a little doubt that the old rules still apply.   If they had theGOP should have been wiped out.

[Arkansas Yankee]

According to Pew, “Trump is turbocharging” voters on both sides.  Pew is predicting an election different than those in 2006, 2010, or 2014. 

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/20/poll-voter-enthusiasm-trump-655682

Gingrich is predicting a GOP wave

http://video.foxnews.com/v/5794479452001/?#sp=show-clips

Political events do not repeat exactly alike forever.

Please do not have a stroke or light your hair on fire.  Consider the possibility. 

Consider what happens if Russiagate fizzles and North Korea de-arming takes hold.

Paul Manafort is literally in jail right now because of witness tampering and will be going on trial in the middle of the campaign, but you somehow think it could all fizzle.

Sure. And I could be crowned the next King of Spain.

Manafort’s charges have absolutely nothing to do with the essence of the Russiagate allegations of election tampering and collusion by Trump, his family members, and his staff.

The prosecutors have reputation of overstepping ethical rules. We will have to see what developed.