2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

PA 18 will be the first good test.   Trump is almost even in approval in PA in the Morning consult poll.  Both parties are significantly involved.nt the issue.  What

I believe the Democrats need to take Trump’s bargain on immigration, if they do not want a backlash.  The majority actually support the parts of the bargain.  Then you can hope Trump’s base revolts against nearly 2 million in effect given amnesty.

But then what do I know about how Democrats think?  You may want the issue.  Whatever!

I do not think Trump won it by 20..  I can not check it now, as I am headed to a Bible study.

PA 18 will be Saccone +8 imo. Trump won it by almost 20 and the gop is investing a ton into it.

This exactly, 53-45 Saccone.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

That PPP polling suggests the Republicans have made significant gains since November. Patriot Majority had PPP poll some of the districts in November, and look at the changes.


Went from D+12 in CA-25 to D+2
Phillips led in MN-03 by 4 and now leads by 3
Generic D led Frelinghuysen in NJ-11 by 2, Sherill now is down by 2 to Generic R
Generic D led Faso by 6 in NY-19, and now is tied.

Massive R swings. No wonder some House Ds are in panic mode.

Will you delete your account if the House flips?

No? I'll be extremely happy?

Try to point out some positives too, sheesh. I'm not saying ignore the negatives, but your tale nearly all the time is solely the sky is falling down.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

As someone pointed out, how is he getting private poll results when he's raised like 85 cents?

The DCCC and national party are not that dumb. They know that this thing has the potential to flip and that Ojeda is a top recruit, so they probably commissioned some private polling and shared it with Ojeda.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Garin Hart Yang Polling for Amy McGrath (D) in KY-06: https://www.scribd.com/document/375773715/KY-06-Garin-Hart-Yang-D-for-Amy-McGrath-Feb-2018

McGrath (D) - 44
Barr (R, i) - 48

Jim Gray (D) - 49
Barr (R, i) - 47

The poll is from late February though.

Wonderful results. I think either one could win this thing.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/MurphinDC/status/992465323088646146

Trump won this suburban Raleigh district 53-44.

Go Romley! He is a business partner of an friend's dad.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://mobile.twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/996723092226494465

DCCC Internal: Fitzpatrick 48% Wallace 46%

Looks about right.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Forgot about this but PPP did the special election in Ohio's 12th and has it:
Republican Troy Balderson: 45%
Democrat Danny O’Connor: 43%

Lol, Balderson is probably leading in high single digits.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

NRCC NE-02 poll

Bacon (R) - 48
Ashford (D) - 46

Bacon (R) - 50
Ashford (D) - 40

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-power-briefing/2018/05/16/senate-intel-committee-russia-investigation-270842

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It's Eastman at 40 not Ashford you oaf.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

It is not I who has placed great emphasis on the generic vote this far out.  But the D advantage has been headed down.

Except for 2010 in midterms the GOP has run 3 to 4 points better than the final RCP average. We shall see.

It's the dude who supported the child molester, long time no see!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Your pic on the bottom sums up my reaction

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Both sides are acting like self righteous hypocrites (including myself, I make fun of how others look occasionally as wel lol) but it is still wrong.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

(PPP) PA-16

Mike Kelly (R) - 48%
Ron DiNicola (D) - 43%

DiNicola's a good man, but his hair is worse than Raskin's, yeesh.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sessions is still overwhelmingly likely to be re-elected, and Culberson is somewhat less favored but still over 50/50.
Hurd is in more danger...

Colin Allred strikes me as a much better challenger than Fletcher. I don't think Sessions is much safer.

Allred is a great challenger, and TX-32 might be competitive. It's increasingly hard to see Sessions win by double digits. But actually overtaking Sessions in votes is going to be tough...

It's tough, but it is doable. I would rate this race as weak lean R right now, yay my district is finally getting coverage again .

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

IK it aint worth much, but primary turnout here was much closer than TX 7th, with the Dallas county part casting slightly more blue ballots.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sessions is still overwhelmingly likely to be re-elected, and Culberson is somewhat less favored but still over 50/50.
Hurd is in more danger...

Colin Allred strikes me as a much better challenger than Fletcher. I don't think Sessions is much safer.

He is not. This is the toughest race he will ever fight to this date by far. Even harder than taking out Frost after redistricting.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sessions is still overwhelmingly likely to be re-elected, and Culberson is somewhat less favored but still over 50/50.
Hurd is in more danger...

Colin Allred strikes me as a much better challenger than Fletcher. I don't think Sessions is much safer.

Allred is a great challenger, and TX-32 might be competitive. It's increasingly hard to see Sessions win by double digits. But actually overtaking Sessions in votes is going to be tough...

It's tough, but it is doable. I would rate this race as weak lean R right now, yay my district is finally getting coverage again .

IMO, Allred's biggest job is to make this a race, so that the GOP $$ goes towards helping Sessions instead of defending elsewhere. Stretch opposition resources and all that.

It already is a race believe me, Sessions is the favorite, but this is by no means a cakewalk, he will have to fight, and I would not guarantee him victory at this point.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sessions is still overwhelmingly likely to be re-elected, and Culberson is somewhat less favored but still over 50/50.
Hurd is in more danger...

Colin Allred strikes me as a much better challenger than Fletcher. I don't think Sessions is much safer.

Allred is a great challenger, and TX-32 might be competitive. It's increasingly hard to see Sessions win by double digits. But actually overtaking Sessions in votes is going to be tough...

It's tough, but it is doable. I would rate this race as weak lean R right now, yay my district is finally getting coverage again .

IMO, Allred's biggest job is to make this a race, so that the GOP $$ goes towards helping Sessions instead of defending elsewhere. Stretch opposition resources and all that.

It already is a race believe me, Sessions is the favorite, but this is by no means a cakewalk, he will have to fight, and I would not guarantee him victory at this point.

Yeah, but this is quite inelastic of an area (an area that was electing Republicans in the 1950s), with an incumbent who is a good fit for the seat. We have an A-list recruit but the fact remains that the range of which the final result will lie in is likely narrow. And the vast bulk of that range lies below the vote share needed for Allred to defeat Sessions.

Sessions has a lot of problems here locally, and he won't do much better than liddle Abney. He also does not fit the district as well as you might think. Tx 32nd is not all land rovers and parkies. And from here enthusiasm for Allred is through the roof. This will be close no doubt. The people that are backing Sessions are fairly unenthusiastic and some a little shy about saying so.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The only poll out shows Sessions trailing and one of the only polls out shows Abney winning. IK there are some big factors that show it this way, but Sessions is not as strong as people think, he will most likely have a very underwhelming win with a mid to low single digit mov. Compare that to previous double digit trouncings on all levels nearly all the time.

Things have changed over the past year.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sessions is still overwhelmingly likely to be re-elected, and Culberson is somewhat less favored but still over 50/50.
Hurd is in more danger...

Colin Allred strikes me as a much better challenger than Fletcher. I don't think Sessions is much safer.

Allred is a great challenger, and TX-32 might be competitive. It's increasingly hard to see Sessions win by double digits. But actually overtaking Sessions in votes is going to be tough...

It's tough, but it is doable. I would rate this race as weak lean R right now, yay my district is finally getting coverage again .

IMO, Allred's biggest job is to make this a race, so that the GOP $$ goes towards helping Sessions instead of defending elsewhere. Stretch opposition resources and all that.

It already is a race believe me, Sessions is the favorite, but this is by no means a cakewalk, he will have to fight, and I would not guarantee him victory at this point.

Yeah, but this is quite inelastic of an area (an area that was electing Republicans in the 1950s), with an incumbent who is a good fit for the seat. We have an A-list recruit but the fact remains that the range of which the final result will lie in is likely narrow. And the vast bulk of that range lies below the vote share needed for Allred to defeat Sessions.

Sessions has a lot of problems here locally, and he won't do much better than liddle Abney. He also does not fit the district as well as you might think. Tx 32nd is not all land rovers and parkies. And from here enthusiasm for Allred is through the roof. This will be close no doubt. The people that are backing Sessions are fairly unenthusiastic and some a little shy about saying so.

TX-32 is Country Club Republican territory.
Pete Sessions is a died-in-the-wool Country Club Republican.
The road to winning this seat is through flipping those Country Club Republicans.
Clinton may have won this seat by 3, but Romney won it by 15. Enthusiasm helps but it's not enough by itself to flip this district.

This district has a lot of country club Republicans, but it also has tons of Hispanics and Blacks, it is NOT all country club GOPer's by a long way. Pete Sessions is running a competetive race, and he is not much stronger than liddle Abney. He has many local issues with residency and enthusiasm that many voters know about, we need to get the message out there more though. Enthusiasm alone won't win the district on its own, but it is enough to get it to mid to low single digits, which it will be which I am defining as 0-7 pt mov for Sessions.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sessions is still overwhelmingly likely to be re-elected, and Culberson is somewhat less favored but still over 50/50.
Hurd is in more danger...

Colin Allred strikes me as a much better challenger than Fletcher. I don't think Sessions is much safer.

Allred is a great challenger, and TX-32 might be competitive. It's increasingly hard to see Sessions win by double digits. But actually overtaking Sessions in votes is going to be tough...

It's tough, but it is doable. I would rate this race as weak lean R right now, yay my district is finally getting coverage again .

IMO, Allred's biggest job is to make this a race, so that the GOP $$ goes towards helping Sessions instead of defending elsewhere. Stretch opposition resources and all that.

It already is a race believe me, Sessions is the favorite, but this is by no means a cakewalk, he will have to fight, and I would not guarantee him victory at this point.

Yeah, but this is quite inelastic of an area (an area that was electing Republicans in the 1950s), with an incumbent who is a good fit for the seat. We have an A-list recruit but the fact remains that the range of which the final result will lie in is likely narrow. And the vast bulk of that range lies below the vote share needed for Allred to defeat Sessions.

Sessions has a lot of problems here locally, and he won't do much better than liddle Abney. He also does not fit the district as well as you might think. Tx 32nd is not all land rovers and parkies. And from here enthusiasm for Allred is through the roof. This will be close no doubt. The people that are backing Sessions are fairly unenthusiastic and some a little shy about saying so.

TX-32 is Country Club Republican territory.
Pete Sessions is a died-in-the-wool Country Club Republican.
The road to winning this seat is through flipping those Country Club Republicans.
Clinton may have won this seat by 3, but Romney won it by 15. Enthusiasm helps but it's not enough by itself to flip this district.

This district has a lot of country club Republicans, but it also has tons of Hispanics and Blacks, it is NOT all country club GOPer's by a long way. Pete Sessions is running a competetive race, and he is not much stronger than liddle Abney. He has many local issues with residency and enthusiasm that many voters know about, we need to get the message out there more though. Enthusiasm alone won't win the district on its own, but it is enough to get it to mid to low single digits, which it will be which I am defining as 0-7 pt mov for Sessions.

Hispanic turnout in Texas is terrible. Many cannot vote, and many of those who can vote don't. Black turnout is also quite atrocious.
We can't rely on minority turnout alone to defeat Sessions. Focusing on trying to turnout minorities and neglecting the country club R vote is unlikely to be a successful strategy.

Good points, this is also my thoughts on why Sessions will probably survive. I think 2018 fundamentals and several other factors will make this a definite race, but he overall DNA of the district will probably save Sessions. Don't get any feelings that Trump wins this district in 2020 though, because that probably ain't happening lol.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Link: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Montana_June_2018.pdf

Williams (D): 49
Gianforte (R): 43

469 LV; June 11-13

Pretty good.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Pretty good.

Imagine believing those numbers and still predicting that Heitkamp will lose by 8.

I still think Greg wins by a couple points, so...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

DCCC internal polls:

https://twitter.com/CahnEmily/status/1009098292213534720

TX-7: Culbertson (R) 47, Fletcher (D) 45
PA-10: Perry (R) 45, Scott (D) 41
VA-10: Wexton (D) 46, Comstock (R) 43
NC-9: McCready (D) 44, Harris (R) 43
NY-22: Brindisi (D) 50, Tenney (R) 44
PA-1: Fitzpatrick (R) 48, Wallace (D) 46
NM-2: Herrell (R) 45, Torres Small (D) 45
NJ-3: Kim (D) 50, MacArthur (R) 44
CA-39: Kim (R) 45, Cisneros (D) 43
KY-6: McGrath (D) 52, Barr (R) 37

Pretty believable except it is 45-43 for R's in NM 2nd, and Andy Kim will lose badly.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Looking forward to this one:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1009166508499619840

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Monmouth is releasing a VA 10th poll tomorrow. Not really that exciting, since literally everybody knows who is going to win but here is the announcement anyways.

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1011275225013673986